MLB Best Bets | Props Picks & Predictions Today (August 2)
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Phillips (left), Brandon Pfaadt (right).
Happy Friday!
Our staff has two MLB Best Bets to share, including pitching prop picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs Pirates and Phillies vs Mariners.
MLB Best Bets | Props Picks & Predictions Today (August 2)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 8:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
By Cody Goggin
Brandon Pfaadt has been a positive in the Diamondbacks’ rotation this season. The 25-year-old debuted last year with a 5.72 ERA in 96 innings, but this season he has a 3.92 ERA in 126.1 IP. His peripherals are even better, including a 3.33 xERA, 3.57 FIP, and 3.81 SIERA.
Pfaadt has a 107 Stuff+ this season, which ranks 18th out of 63 pitchers with 110 or more innings pitched. He also has an impressive 106 Location+, which is seventh among that group and gives him the 10th-best Pitching+.
Pfaadt has allowed just a 5.3% walk rate this season, which ranks in the 88th percentile among qualified pitchers. His strikeout rate ranks in the 51st percentile, but he has made up for this average punchout rate by avoiding walks and limiting hard contact. Pfaadt ranks in the 59th percentile in barrel rate and 36th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed this season.
The Pirates’ offense strikes out 24.3% of the time, the seventh-most among MLB lineups. They have a league-average walk rate and rank 27th in wRC+ this season. Pittsburgh ranks top-ten in most Statcast metrics, as they hit the ball hard, but this hasn’t resulted in much production thanks to their strikeout rate and their high ground ball rate (third-highest).
My favorite bet for this game is backing Pfaadt against this Pittsburgh offense on the road. I think he will have a strong start today. I like taking Pfaadt to allow less than 2.5 earned runs in this outing, which you can currently find at -150.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-150) | Play to 2.5 (-160)
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Phillies vs. Mariners
By Tony Sartori
The Phillies hand the ball to right-hander Tyler Phillips on Friday, and he has been tremendous this season.
Although in a small sample size, the rookie hurler is 3-0 through four appearances on the mound with a 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.
He's surrendered four or fewer hits in three of those four outings.
The right-hander's underlying metrics are equally dominant as Phillips, if he officially qualified, would rank in the league's top half in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
This success should continue against Seattle, a team that ranks in the bottom five of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Not a single member of the Mariners has previously faced Phillips, so it will likely take a few rotations through the batting order to attempt to figure him out, which few teams have successfully done.
Pick: Tyler Phillips Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110) | Play to 4.5 (+105)
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
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