MLB Best Bets: 3 Friday Props, Picks & Predictions
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With a full slate of games on Friday, July 5, our Action Network MLB staff is ready to share three MLB Best Bets, including a run-line prediction for Cardinals vs Nationals, a total for Tigers vs Reds, and a Luis Severino prop for Mets vs Pirates.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Friday Props, Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:45 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Pirates
By Tony Sartori
New York hands the ball to right-hander Luis Severino on Friday, and he should be a good fade candidate in the prop market.
While Severino has put together a strong campaign, he hasn't found success in the strikeout department. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the 12th percentile in whiff rate and 25th percentile in strikeout rate.
Subsequently, the right-hander has recorded four or fewer punchouts in seven of his past nine starts. These woes will likely continue against Pittsburgh, a team he has recorded four or fewer strikeouts against in two of the three career meetings.
This current Pirates lineup possesses a mere 19.6% strikeout rate and 16.9% whiff rate through 51 combined career plate appearances against Severino.
Pick: Luis Severino Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
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Cardinals vs. Nationals
By Cody Goggin
Sonny Gray has gotten off to a strong start in his St. Louis Cardinals career. Through 15 starts, he has a 2.98 ERA and 3.14 xERA, anchoring the rotation.
Among qualified pitchers, Gray ranks in the 75th percentile in whiff rate, 93rd percentile in strikeout rate, and 70th percentile in walk rate. Despite being a little worse than league average in contact quality metrics, he ranks in the 79th percentile in xERA and 78th percentile in xBA.
Tonight, he will face a Washington Nationals offense that ranks 24th in wRC+ and wOBA. They also rank 29th in ISO, 22nd in OBP, and 26th in SLG, not posing much of a power threat. Washington also ranks 28th in hard-hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 29th in average exit velocity.
Gray's adversary is Patrick Corbin, who has been among the worst starters in baseball for a few seasons. Corbin has a 5.49 ERA and 6.48 xERA this season. He ranks in the second percentile in xERA and first percentile in xBA.
Corbin doesn’t miss many bats (ninth percentile in strikeout rate), and those bats make a ton of quality contact, as Corbin ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 13th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and third percentile in exit velocity.
The St. Louis offense isn’t extraordinary, but they are only slightly below average, ranking 17th in wRC+. I’d expect them to be capable of putting up a decent day against a sub-par pitcher like Corbin.
I think the Cardinals have a huge advantage in this matchup. Gray is living up to his contract in St. Louis and facing off against a mediocre Washington offense, while the Cardinals will get the opportunity to tee off against Corbin.
I’m confident in their ability to win by multiple runs.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
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Tigers vs. Reds
By D.J. James
Carson Spiers has been an excellent starter for the Cincinnati Reds this year.
They need rotational depth desperately if they plan on contending down the stretch. Spiers’ best attribute has been limiting hard contact. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the 60th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the 75th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He doesn't strike out many hitters, but doesn't walk many either (4.5%).
He will face Reese Olson and the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit’s rotation has been its saving grace. Olson ranks in the 87th percentile in ground-ball rate allowed. He also limits walks and gets hitters to chase often. His batted-ball profile is mediocre, but that's a non-issue when the ball is often hit on the ground.
Neither lineup has been excellent against righties. The Reds have posted an 86 wRC+ against the side over the past month. The Tigers are even worse, posting a 72 wRC+ against righties in the past 30 days.
Neither team boasts an elite bullpen, but both have just enough arms in relief to get the job done once the starters exit. That said, both could pitch deep against weaker lineups.
Bet the under in this one.
Pick: Under 9 (-105)
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