MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Alonso Favored, Public Loves Henderson

The Home Run Derby is arguably the bigger draw than the All-Star Game. At the very least, it’s been trending that way with some predicting it will surpass the Midsummer Classic this year in viewership.

This year’s Derby – which features a set of significant rule changes – boasts a particularly impressive crop of boppers ranging from two-time winners to young studs who have quickly emerged as the face of the league.

Pete Alonso at +310 is the favorite according to BetMGM as he looks for his third title. However, the public is enamored by Gunnar Henderson at +575 now that we know the complete eight-player field.

The Orioles’ star has the highest ticket percentage at 25.5% and handle percentage at 34.6% of any player. He’s followed by Bobby Witt Jr. at 19.6% and Alonso at 15.7% for ticket percentage and Alec Bohm at 24.5% and Alonso at 18.3% for handle. Interestingly enough, Bohm is the biggest longshot at +2000 but has also seen the most movement after opening at +2500.

MLB Home Run Derby Odds

We previously broke down the following key insights for each player heading into Monday’s event:

This is Alonso’s fifth Home Run Derby. He won his first two in 2019 and 2021 before being eliminated by Julio Rodriguez in each of the last two. Alonso won the 2019 Home Run Derby as a rookie when he narrowly beat Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23-22 in the final round in Cleveland.

He defended his crown the next time they held the Derby in 2021 by beating Trey Mancini by an identical score. He’s looking to become the second three-time Derby Champion, joining Ken Griffey Jr. who won in 1994, 1998 and 1999. Alonso ranks 15^th in the league with 18 homers as of Thursday.

Meanwhile, Ozuna was just named to his third All-Star Game but first since 2017. His 24 home runs as of Thursday are fourth in all of baseball. He's hoping to become the first Atlanta Brave to win the Derby, which says a lot considering the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman have participated in recent years.

Garcia will represent the Rangers since the host team always fields a participant. However, this isn't simply a token gesture. Garcia took part in last year's Home Run Derby but was eliminated immediately after clubbing 17 home runs, which were the second-fewest in the first round. Garcia hit 39 home runs last season and is slightly shy of that pace so far with 17 on the year.

Henderson has 27 homers in 2024, which is one shy of his total from a year ago. He’s on pace to become only the second shortstop to hit 50 dingers in a year, possibly joining Alex Rodriguez, who accomplished the feat in 2001 (52) and 2002 (57). He’s looking to become the third Oriole to win the Derby as Cal Ripken Jr. won it in 1991, and Miguel Tejada won in 2004.

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Witt joined the 30-30 club last year by clubbing exactly 30 homers with 49 steals. He's halfway to 30 again after hitting 15 thus far. Witt hopes to become the first Royal to win the Derby. He's the fifth player in franchise history to participate, joining Bo Jackson (1989), Danny Tartabull (1991), Mike Moustakas (2017) and Salvador Perez (2021).

Hernandez will make his Derby debut in Texas. He's been terrific in his first year for the Dodgers, mashing 19 home runs thus far. Hernandez is on pace to shatter his previous high for homers when he hit 31 for the Blue Jays in 2021.

Ramirez returns to the Home Run Derby after taking part in 2022's festivities. He also has 23 homers on the year, which is tied for fifth in the league. He's looking become the first player in Cleveland history to win the Derby.

Bohm has hit only 11 bombs thus far, but he’s destroyed those that sailed over the fence with nine having an exit velocity of 101.9 miles per hour or more. He’s also aiming to become the third player in Phillies history to win the Derby, joining Bobby Abreu (2005) and Ryan Howard (2006).