MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Thursday Model Picks & Predictions (July 11)

It was another winning day yesterday as we went 2-1 for just under a unit of profit. We're back at it today with picks starting in the early afternoon.

We've got three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks for Thursday, July 11 — including predictions for Mets-Nationals, Reds-Rockies, and Dodgers-Phillies.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Thursday, July 11

Thursday, July 11

1:05 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

NRFI -105 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: David Peterson vs. Mackenzie Gore

We have a game where one of the starters, Gore, has excellent numbers and the other is a bit concerning.

David Peterson has a 3.58 ERA but his underlying numbers range from one to two runs higher. To his credit, he's been better in both regards early in games, with a 1.80 ERA and 3.58 xFIP his first time through the order.

More importantly, he's facing the Nationals who rank 29th in wRC+ against lefties. Regression will likely come for him this season, but probably not today.

Mackenzie Gore has a tougher matchup with the Mets, who rank third against lefties. He's also been borderline elite with a 3.83 ERA and even better ERA indicators. Both his ERA and xFIP are even better the first time through the order.

While the Mets are a bit scary, getting this one at -105 is a very good price, so we'll take our chances.

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Thursday, July 11

1:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Reds First Inning Moneyline +230 (Play to +210)

Starting Pitchers: Hunter Greene vs. Austin Gomber

The even-money price on the YRFI at DraftKings was what caught my eye, as I have this game as more likely than not to produce a first inning run. However, most of that projection is coming from the Reds side of the equation.

It's easy to see why given the pitching matchup here. Hunter Greene has a 3.45 ERA that drops to 1.86 his first time through the order, and has been one of my favorite NRFI pitchers for the last two seasons.

Austin Gomber has a 4.47 ERA that jumps to 6.49 his first time through the order — and while his underlying numbers are somewhat better, they still aren't good. Plus, traveling from Colorado to Cincinnati isn't much of an upgrade for pitchers, so it's hard to bake in much positive regression.

The Reds are also on the stronger side of their platoon splits against the lefty Gomber, though much of that is due to cleanup hitter Spencer Steer — so let's hope one of the first three hitters can get on base and get him to the plate in the first inning.

As always, this one is a half-unit play for me at the juicy line.

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Thursday, July 11

6:05 p.m. ET

ESPN

YRFI -125 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Landon Knack vs. Aaron Nola

I'm going right back to the well after this one cashed for us yesterday, with a similar line available everywhere.

Aaron Nola is good, with a 3.48 ERA and similar underlying numbers. But he has to face the Dodgers, who's first three hitters all rank in the top-25 in the MLB in wRC+.

We're also getting some value on the Phillies side against Knack, who has a 2.86 ERA through seven starts, but ERA predictors ranging from the low to high fours. That's a small enough sample size that his predictive metrics probably reveal more about his true ability than his ERA.

Plus, we have elite hitting weather, a top-ten ballpark for offense, and nearly as strong of a lineup from the Phillies.