Thursday MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Model Predictions (5/23)

Variance has predictably swung back the other way, as we posted a 1-3 NRFI/YRFI day on Wednesday.

These swings are to be expected, but you never know when the next big run is going to start.

Overall, we're 100-72 for 23.6 units of profit on the season.

I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Thursday, May 23.

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Thursday MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Model Predictions (5/23)

Thursday, May 22

6:40 p.m. ET

MLB.tv

YRFI +120 (Play to +105)

Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Jack Flaherty

I have this YRFI projected as essentially a coin flip, but we're getting solid +120 odds. Personally, I'm betting this one for half of my usual YRFI unit since it's not exceptionally likely to hit.

Neither team is especially potent offensively. However, both have some solid hitters at the top of their lineup, and very bad ones following. That means the majority of the 7.5 implied runs should be scored by the first three hitters for both teams.

Similarly, the starters have been somewhere between decent (Gausman) and elite (Flaherty), but both are typically worse to start games. Flaherty's ERA jumps to 4.19 his first time through the order, and Gausman's first-time-through-the-order expected FIP is slightly higher than his overall mark.

As always with the Tigers, it could be worth waiting for lineups to be confirmed to ensure that their strong hitters (Perez/Carpenter/Greene/Canha) are actually at the top of their lineup.

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Thursday, May 22

7:41 p.m. ET

MLB.tv

YRFI +102 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. Mike Clevinger

Baltimore is implied for five runs today against the White Sox and Mike Clevinger. Clevinger enters the contest with a 5.56 ERA and underlying numbers in the fives or worse.

While his first time through the order numbers are slightly better, they aren't exactly good — his expected FIP is 4.76. Meanwhile, Baltimore's lineup starts with three consecutive hitters with wRC+ scores of 130 or higher on the season.

The O's are driving most of the value here, but there's some sneaky upside from the White Sox as well. While they're an awful offense, Grayson Rodriguez has a first-time through-the-order expected FIP over six and an overall ERA considerably lower than his ERA predictors.

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