MLB Odds & Picks | ‘Payoff Pitch’ Podcast Best Bets for Monday (August 5)
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Devers (Red Sox)
There are only nine games in action on Monday evening in the MLB, but there are two particular matchups that have betting value.
That's at least according to our experts on the "Payoff Pitch" podcast.
So, without further ado, here are MLB odds and picks, including the "Payoff Pitch" podcast best bets for Monday, August 5.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:05 p.m. | Twins ML (-120) |
  | 8:10 p.m. | Over 9.5 |
Twins +ML (-120) at Cubs
8:05 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I like anything up to -130 with David Festa pitching tonight.
His stuff+ pitching metrics are crazy high across his arsenal, and he's posted a solid 20% strikeout minus walk rate across his first 20 MLB innings. He's gotten a little unlucky with the long ball but he put together a great outing in his last start against the red-hot Mets.
On the opposite side, I'm very, very out on Kyle Hendricks. I think he's turning into the next Patrick Corbin as he's been among the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season.
He has a negative WAR and expected run indicators pushing five. He's too easily hittable and he can't command his slower fastball as much as he used to. He's approaching career-lows in swinging strike rate and chase rates.
The Twins, since Royce Lewis has returned, are 6-3, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Over the last month, they're the third-best lineup against right-handed pitchers and are a top-10 defensive team. They face a Cubs offense that's fairly top-heavy around Seiya Suzuki while the Twins are a deep team.
It's generally a smart move to fade a team coming off playing Sunday Night Baseball as well, so hopefully their bats are slow and the Twins roll to an easy victory.
Pick: Twins ML +120
Over 9.5
8:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
The Red Sox's offense is so legit.
They have a 135 WRC+ over the last month, which ranks first in all of baseball. They've been even better against right-handed pitching with a WRC+ of 149.
I love the matchup against Brady Singer, who we've discussed many times on the podcast. He's due for negative regression, and he's getting hit hard. He's benefitting from being a ground ball pitcher, and I think he's running into a perfect storm tonight against the Red Sox.
The Sox face a Royals team that is so, so good at home. They're top-10 in WRC+ over the last 30 days at home, where they bat .270 as opposed to .236 on the road. They face James Paxton on the mound, who has a 4.83 xERA.
I think both offenses will find success in great matchups. Both bullpens are below average in FIP over the last 30 days (Boston is last).
I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of these teams put up 7-10 runs (potentially both) in a game that I think could get crazy.
Pick: Over 9.5
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