MLB Player Props Sunday: Picks for Spencer Schwellenbach, Seth Lugo & James Paxton (June 30)
Luke Hales/Getty Images. Pictured: Dodgers pitcher James Paxton.
Saturday did not go well, as we took a rare reverse sweep on my player props. However, I've found three starters who are going to help us finish June off strong.
So, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Sunday, June 30.
MLB Player Prop Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of Action Network contributor Doug Ziefel's top MLB player prop picks from Sunday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 11:35 a.m. | |
| 2:10 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Pirates vs. Braves
We are going right back to the well here with Spencer Schwellenbach. We were on his over in his last start on Monday at the same total, and he cruised over it, recording six strikeouts against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Schwellenbach has an even better matchup this afternoon, as he'll toe the slab against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates enter this matchup with the fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties on the year.
Schwellenbach's strikeouts have started to pile up in his last two outings, and they should continue to do so today. All the indicators are there: He's above average in CSW and has a swinging strike rate inside the top 20% of all qualified pitchers.
This may be the last time we see his line at 4.5, so take the value while you can.
Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Guardians vs. Royals
Seth Lugo has been everything and more for the Kansas City Royals this season. The 34-year-old is in the midst of his best season, pitching to a 2.29 ERA in 17 starts.
However, he's due for significant regression, as his xERA of 3.81 would indicate. Unfortunately for Lugo, he's facing a red-hot Cleveland Guardians lineup that ranks eighth in wRC+ against right-handers over their past 30 games.
The Guardians will give Lugo no breaks. They've been putting the ball into play with authority without striking out, coming into this game 29th in strikeout rate against righties.
Clearly, this is a bad matchup for Lugo with regression looming. Taking him not to pitch into the seventh is a strong angle.
Pick: Seth Lugo Under 18.5 Outs (-130)
Dodgers vs. Giants
James Paxton is another starter with sizable regression looming. His xERA of 4.47 is drastically higher than his actual ERA of 3.39. Paxton has struggled with command all season and has not missed many bats because of it.
That should make the San Francisco Giants hitters' eyes light up. The Giants have been one of the best lineups in baseball against lefties, ranking fifth in wRC+ and third in OBP over their last 30 games.
San Francisco also has the best walk rate against lefties in that time span. It's going to be disciplined and make Paxton work for his outs this afternoon.
With all signs pointing to a rough day for Paxton, it's likely we won't see him out there for the sixth.
Pick: James Paxton Under 15.5 Outs (-102)
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