Sunday MLB Player Props: Picks for Ryne Nelson, Brady Singer, More (July 7)
Via Chris Coduto/Getty Images. Pictured: Starter Ryne Nelson #19 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the game at Chase Field on June 14, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the White Sox 7-1.
We swept the board on Saturday and are now sitting in a great spot heading into Sunday. I've got three more MLB player prop bets to help us make this a huge weekend.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Sunday, July 7 — featuring picks for pitchers Ryne Nelson and Brady Singer.
Sunday MLB Player Props: July 7
- Zack Littell over 3.5 strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Brady Singer over 16.5 outs (-114, FanDuel)
- Ryne Nelson under 15.5 outs (100, DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Zack Littell has had an up-and-down season, but he has consistently generated strikeouts. Littell's Strikeout Rate may only sit in the 48th percentile, but he's often overlooked in that market, and that is the case again today.
Littell will face the Texas Rangers, and while the Rangers have plenty of big bats in their order, their numbers are not what they were last year.
The Rangers struck out more of late. Over their last 15 games, they rank 17th in Strikeout Rate against righties, as opposed to their season-long rank of 26th.
The matchup on paper has driven Littell's strikeout total for this afternoon far too low. He has exceeded this number in 71% of his starts this season, so this line is significantly mispriced, even considering the matchup.
Brady Singer will get the ball for the Kansas City Royals this afternoon and has an excellent matchup in front of him as the series with the Colorado Rockies wraps up.
Singer has had a solid season, entering this start with a 3.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 17 starts. For a ground-ball pitcher like Singer, his actual stats are more telling than his expected numbers since the contact rates are dulled by his heavy Ground-ball Rate.
He has been a ground-ball machine this year, as his Ground-ball Rate sits in the 87th percentile. Singer should have no issues with the Rockies, who are 29th in wRC+ against righties and will not get much help from Coors Field when they can't get the ball in the air.
Back Singer to work into the sixth as he's primed to succeed in a hitter's environment.
Lastly, we head to Arizona, where we are being gifted a great line on Arizona Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. Nelson enters this outing with a 5.42 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
He does not miss bats at all, with a Strikeout Rate in the seventh percentile, and his Called Strike Plus Whiff (CSW) Rate ranks in the sixth percentile. On top of that, the majority of the contact he's allowed has been hard, as his Barrel Rate Allowed is in the 19th percentile.
These numbers are a foreboding sign entering an outing against the San Diego Padres, who are second in wRC+ against righties and have the lowest Strikeout Rate against them as well.
All signs point to another short outing for Nelson, which has been the trend for him this season. He has gone five innings or fewer in 10 of his 15 outings this year.
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