Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks Wednesday (July 3)

Wednesday, July 3

6:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Pirates Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-130	8.5 +100/-122	+1.5 -210

Cardinals Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+110	8.5 +100/-122	-1.5 +172

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Jared Jones is part of one of the best starting rotations in baseball, and although he is in the shadow of Paul Skenes, he has still burst onto the scene. The 22-year-old right-hander has shown the maturity of a veteran and could see his name posted on many All-Star rosters in the future.

His opponent will be Miles Mikolas, who has turned his 2024 campaign around and shows promise for the Cardinals. He has posted relatively average peripherals, but rarely walks anyone.

The major difference in this game is the depth of the Cardinals’ lineup is, which should propel them to victory over the Pirates.

Find my Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 3 below.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mikolas has a 5.32 ERA and a xERA a touch above 4.00. Positive regression is finally falling his way as the 35-year-old has an average exit velocity a touch above average. His Hard-Hit rate is a bit below average, but but has a walk rate under 5%, which has permitted him to pitch past the fifth inning in plenty of starts this year. Yes, he gave up nine earned runs against Cincinnati in his most recent start, but this game is a nice “buy-low” spot.

The Cardinals’ lineup is the major difference in this game. The Cards own a 107 wRC+ against righties over the past month and also boast a walk rate under 7% and a strikeout rate under 22% in that span. Most importantly, they have a deep lineup with six batters eclipsing a .315 xwOBA.

St. Louis also has a decent bullpen with a 4.13 xFIP. The bullpen's walk rate is slightly above 9.5% with a strikeout rate a touch above 20 %. At the moment, they only have two arms with an xFIP under 4.00, so Mikolas will need to pitch deep into this game.

St. Louis Cardinals

Jones is a bit better than Mikolas and has much more flash, but his ERA is 3.66 against a 3.73 xERA. He allows much more hard contact than Mikolas and has a similar ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate is above 26% and he walks 7.1% of batters. However, since he tends to allow hard contact and can accrue pitches quickly via strikeouts and walks, he could be exiting before the sixth inning.

The Pirates have a worse lineup than the Cardinals against righties. In the past month, Pittsburgh has an 86 wRC+, a 7.3% walk rate and a 25.9% strikeout rate. Oneil Cruz has crushed righties, but this lineup lacks the depth the Cardinals display.

In relief, the Pirates have had some issues. They have a bullpen xFIP of 4.36 with a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate over the past month.

Pirates vs. Cardinals

Betting Pick & Prediction

Look for the Cardinals to win a tight contest on the road. Jones is the better of the starters, but Mikolas can handle the Pirates' lineup. Both bullpens are comparable, so unless one of these starters exits early, there shouldn't be much of an edge once the bullpens take over. Bet the Cardinals to win this and play them down to -108.

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline | Play to -108

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