Rockies vs Mets Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (July 12)

Friday, July 12

7:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Rockies Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+190	9 -102/-118	+1.5 -110

Mets Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-230	9 -102/-118	-1.5 -110

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Tanner Gordon has only made one start for the Colorado Rockies, and it didn't go well. He was serviceable in the Minor Leagues, but will now have to face one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball — the New York Mets.

Sean Manaea will start for the Mets tonight and even though he is a reliable arm in the back-end of the rotation, he has issues keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks.

The Rockies aren't hitting like the Mets, but still have enough bats to help propel this game over the total.

Colorado Rockies

Gordon, in his most recent start, allowed five earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against the struggling Kansas City Royals. He didn't walk anyone, which allowed him to pitch deeper into the game, but an average exit velocity of almost 93 mph won't get the job done in the majors. Even at the minor-league level this year, Gordon had trouble as his ERA was a meager 4.91 over 40 1/3 innings.

The Rockies have an 83 wRC+ off of lefties in the past month. Their strikeout rate is almost 30% and their walk rate is 7.2%. Brenton Doyle has been the story of their season, though. He and Charlie Blackmon boast a .390+ xwOBA, Jacob Stallings is at .360, and Nolan Jones and Michael Toglia are north of .305. Their lineup isn't deep, but if they can limit strikeouts, they can hit Manaea, who isn't overpowering.

The Rockies’ bullpen has been awful. They own a 4.49 xFIP over the past month with a strikeout rate under 18% and a walk rate of nearly 10%.

New York Mets

Manaea is fine. He owns a sub-4.00 ERA with a 4.07 xERA. He should see a little regression because his hard-hit rate ranks in the 27th percentile and his average exit velocity is nearly 90 mph. He also rarely keeps the ball on the ground (20th percentile). His strikeout rate is a touch above 23%, but he walks 10.5% of hitters. If the Rockies are patient, the Mets will have to go to the bullpen early.

The Mets’ lineup can put up runs quickly as New York has nine active hitters with a .330+ xwOBA in the past month against righties. Overall, the Mets own a 133 wRC+, a 9% walk rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate. This lineup is complete and should force Gordon out of the game quickly.

Now, the Mets’ bullpen has some fire-ballers, but is also dealing with several key injuries, so depth is an issue. They have a sub-4.00 xFIP in the past month, but if Manaea starts walking batters, New York's depth could be tested in this matchup, especially against the top of the Rockies’ order.

Rockies vs. Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

Look for this game to go over the total. Offense has been down this year, but Gordon and Manaea aren't really contributing to the dominant pitching. Both teams could have issues in relief, and each lineup has more than enough to get the bullpen early.

Pick: Over 9 | Play to 10

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