Royals vs Cardinals Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (July 9)

Tuesday, July 9

7:45 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Royals Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-102	8 -105 / -115	-1.5 +164

Cardinals Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-118	8 -105 / -115	+1.5 -198

Odds via DraftKings . Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to begin a quick two-game set against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night.

The Royals send Michael Wacha to the mound, and he’ll take on his former team, who will start Andre Pallante.

These teams are in the thick of a playoff race in their respective leagues. The market makes the Cardinals a slight favorite, and you can bet the Royals at even money.

The over/under is set at 8, which appears to be taking most of the money on the over.

Kansas City Royals

It's been a strange season for the young Royals, who have sputtered since the beginning of June. They are 8.5 games back in the AL Central but only 1.5 GB from the third wild-card spot.

Michael Wacha faces his former team tonight, and it won't be easy. His former teammates have lighted him up, and it is an excellent matchup for the Cardinals' offense.

Wacha is a steady veteran pitcher with an xERA of 3.83. He gets the occasional strikeout but does a terrific job changing speeds and limiting hard contact.

Wacha has one thing going for him: hitters like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt aren't playing well.

The Royals bats need to go to work tonight against Pallante, considering Wacha may find himself in trouble early in the ball game. They have little experience against him, with only two hits in seven plate appearances.

The Royals are a much better team against left-handed pitching, as they are hitting nearly 20 batting average points worse against righties. They are coming off a 10-run outburst on Sunday in Colorado, but they could get silenced by the tricky Pallante.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have an excellent matchup at home against Wacha.

The former Redbird has been lit up in the past by the current hitters on the Cardinals roster. They are hitting .329, including four homers in 14 at-bats by Nolan Arenado.

Pallante gets the start tonight, which is a critical part of this handicap. Pallante's season has been a rollercoaster, entering the matchup with a 4.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

Over the past month, he’s done an excellent job limiting the opposition. He’s compiled a 2.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts across 26 frames.

Pallante isn't a dominant swing-and-miss pitcher, ranking below the 15th percentile of qualified pitchers in chase rate and whiff rate. However, he induces a crazy number of ground balls (61%) and allows almost no hard contact.

The Cardinals have the chops to build off their 6-0 victory on Monday, and their offense should provide run support for Pallante in the early going.

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Royals vs. Cardinals

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm fading the public and targeting the full game tonight.

As of Tuesday morning and according to our Action Network app, 93% of the bets are on the over. However, we've also tracked some sharp action on the under.

I think it's because casuals see how well the Cardinals have done against Wacha in the past, and perhaps there is some recency bias on the Royals' offensive explosion on Sunday. Pallante is in a groove, and I trust that Wacha will be able to avoid getting lit up throughout his start.

The Royals bullpen is not great by any stretch, but I believe it will be a much lower-scoring game than the public believes.

I suggest you take Under 8 before the line drops to 7.5.

Pick: Under 8 (-115, DraftKings)

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