Tigers vs Twins Odds & Prediction | Tuesday Betting Pick
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota’s Royce Lewis.
Tigers vs Twins Odds
| Detroit Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+106 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +176 |
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-124 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -215 |
AL Central rivals, the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins, are set for the first meeting of their series on Tuesday night.
Tarik Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, will take the mound for the Tigers and will be opposed by Minnesota's Simeon Woods Richardson. While Skubal is clearly the A-side of this pitching matchup, the Twins have the better of the two lineups. This game will come down to whether or not the Twins can get to Skubal.
Tigers vs Twins odds for Tuesday have moved quite a bit as the Twins are -124 moneyline favorites after opening as plus-money underdogs. The over/under is set at 7.5 (-115o / -105u).
Will Skubal continue his Cy Young campaign? Find out as I make my Tigers vs Twins prediction in my MLB betting preview for Tuesday, July 2.
The young Tigers lineup has not made the giant leap we expected this season. They come into this matchup ranked 25th in wRC+ and 27th in OBP against right-handed pitching while also having the seventh-highest strikeout rate.
This scuffling lineup will be tasked with facing Woods Richardson, the Twins rookie. Woods Richardson has proven he belongs in the big league rotation, as he's pitched to a 3.41 ERA in 13 starts.
While Woods Richardson is due for regression, the Tigers are not the team to provide it. What's worse for Detroit is that it will have to face a solid bullpen behind him.
Minnesota's bullpen ranks 11th in ERA and ninth in average fastball velocity. Woods Richarson will likely give Minnesota five solid innings, but will the game be over by the sixth?
Morale-wise, the length of this game depends on whether or not the Twins can get Skubal. That has been no easy task this season, as Skubal has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
He enters this outing with a 2.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 16 starts. There have been many outings where he's looked untouchable, but the numbers say that won't last forever.
Skubal has a half-run differential between his ERA and his xERA, as well as a .30 difference between his FIP and his xFIP. That means slight regression is coming, and we should see some of it tonight against this hot Twins lineup.
Minnesota has been the best lineup against lefties over the last 30 games, leading the majors in wRC+ and OBP in that span. It has also drastically cut its strikeout rate from last season, and putting the ball in play against Skubal will be key.
If the Twins can create traffic and capitalize on opportunities, they will be in a very good spot to win this matchup.
Tigers vs Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The odds have moved in favor of the Twins since the markets opened. It's for good reason; they have the edge in every aspect of this game outside of starting pitching.
While Skubal is undoubtedly the better starter, he has a far tougher matchup than Woods Richardson. In the end, I'm much more confident in the Twins getting to Skubal than the Tigers doing significant damage against Minnesota's staff.
Back the Twins to take this series opener.
Pick: Twins ML -110 or Better
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