Blue Jays vs Yankees Predictions, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays)
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, two AL East foes, are set to start a series on Friday night at Yankee Stadium. These two clubs have proven to be evenly matched against one another as they split the last four-game set they had back in June.
With this series taking place in the Bronx, the bats should be expected to come alive for both sides as the weather will aid fly balls. It also helps that Yankee Stadium has that short porch in right field.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds for Friday have the Yankees as -165 moneyline favorites with an over/under of nine.
Will the weather ignite these two lineups? Find out as I make my Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction in my MLB betting preview for this AL East showdown on Friday, August 2.
How to Bet Blue Jays vs Yankees
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 9.5 -102 / -118 | +1.5 -148 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 9.5 -102 / -118 | -1.5 +124 |
Blue Jays at Yankees Projected Starters
| Kevin Gausman | Stat | Marcus Stroman |
|---|---|---|
| 9-8 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 4.44 / 4.85 | ERA /xERA | 3.64 / 4.75 |
| 3.82 / 3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 5.24 / 4.75 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 16.5% | K-BB% | 7.2% |
| 38% | GB% | 49% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 105 | Location+ | 96 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Blue Jays come into this series in middling form, as they're 5-5 over their last 10 ball games and are right in the middle of the pack when it comes to production against right-handed pitching.
They rank 13th in both wRC+ and OBP against righties on the season, but tonight, they face a right-hander — Marcus Stroman — whom they profile well against.
Stroman comes into the outing off a clunker against Boston, as he was tagged for five runs on nine hits and couldn't get out of the fourth inning. Stroman, who's still an excellent ground ball artist, has been inconsistent with his command this season and created much more traffic on the bases.
His WHIP of 1.35 is much higher than his career average of 1.26, and his issues in command have led to hard contact. Toronto has already faced him three times this year, and it got the better of him in their latest meeting.
With the Blue Jays having a good scouting report on Stroman and boasting the fifth-lowest ground ball rate in the majors, we should see Toronto have success again tonight.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
It's been an up-and-down year for Kevin Gausman as regression has hit him hard. But we've still seen him show flashes of dominance.
While Gausman has been somewhat unpredictable, he'll have to contend with a Yankees lineup that got a big boost at the trade deadline and is trending in the right direction.
The Yankees have been the best lineup in baseball against righties this year, and that hasn't changed over their last 15 games.
However, a closer look at Gausman shows he's due for some positive regression, and he may turn the clock back tonight.
Gausman enters this outing with a SIERA of 3.82 and a FIP of 3.91, both significantly better and more telling than his season ERA of 4.44.
Another critical statistic in favor of Gausman is his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.
At 11.19, his ratio is above average, and keeping the ball in the yard is crucial whenever you're at Yankee Stadium.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Betting Picks
While the Yankees' bats are hot coming into this series, there's no doubt that the Blue Jays are live in this opener.
They should be able to get to Stroman as they have the discipline, experience and batted-ball profile to succeed against him.
On the other hand, Gausman is due for more things to bounce in his favor, and if he can keep the ball in the yard, he should keep the Yankees' bats relatively quiet.
Take the Blue Jays to be leading halfway through this one.
Moneyline
Taking the Blue Jays on the ML aligns with the final five angle above and also gets you a better return. However, that's because the bullpens against these lineups are volatile, so tread lightly.
Run Line (Spread)
As for the run line, the Blue Jays are again the side you want, but with the price around -150, playing their moneyline is much better value.
Over/Under
I'm going to pass on the total. While all the exterior factors suggest there will be runs, Gausman has indicators of success in this matchup, which will keep the Yankees' scoring to a minimum for at least the first half of this game.
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