UFC Denver Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Ponzinibbio vs Salikhov, Dober vs Silva & More (Saturday, July 13)

Check out the UFC Denver odds with our expert best bets for Saturday night's event on ESPN.

UFC Denver takes place at Ball Arena in Colorado. The event is available on both ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) with the main card kicking off at 10 p.m. ET.

With a slew of card changes, as well as the high altitude of Denver, tonight's UFC fight card presents potential pitfall after pitfall for MMA bettors.

So where should you place your bets? Our crew has combed the UFC odds board and pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s Mile-High card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

*UFC Denver odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via BetMGM. Use our BetMGM promo code tonight! 

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

UFC Denver Odds & Best Bets

Billy Ward: Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET

I’ve been on the Andre Petroski side all week, highlighting him in my UFC Luck Ratings piece as a potentially undervalued fighter when his moneyline was +105.

Evidently, the market agrees with me; Petroski (-115) has flipped to a favorite at some sportsbooks, with the best line sitting at -107.

He’s taking on fellow Pennsylvanian Josh Fremd (-105) in a Pittsburgh vs. Philly rivalry fight, with Petroski representing Renzo Gracie’s Philadelphia school. Petroski is an elite grappler with three of his five UFC wins coming via stoppage on the ground. He’s also a frequent competitor at Fury Pro Grappling events, where he holds a 5-1 record.

The taller, longer Fremd has been vulnerable to grapplers in the past with multiple takedowns surrendered in three of his five UFC fights. Only one of those opponents (Anthony Hernandez) is even primarily a grappler, so it’s a major weakness that past opponents of Fremd’s have exploited.

Fremd is also 2-3 in the UFC with the opponents he beat holding a combined 4-9 UFC record. Petroski is 5-2 in the promotion with one loss coming on less than a week’s notice against Michel Pereira, and the other a fairly fluky self-knockout on an awkward takedown in a fight he was winning.

Were it not for those fights, Petroski would be a massive favorite here. He’s the better all-around fighter, so I’m happy to get him at a roughly pick'em price.

The Pick: Andre Petroski (-107 at BetRivers)

Tony Sartori: Montel Jackson vs. Da'Mon Blackshear

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC prelims feature a bantamweight bout between Montel Jackson (-115) and Da'Mon Blackshear (+105). I think there is value on the underdog in this spot as I believe that Blackshear will have multiple avenues to victory against Jackson.

First, I want to sell high on Jackson. Yes, he is riding a four-fight winning streak, but that has elevated his moneyline past what I perceive to be fair value.

Those four wins came against a near-retirement (and probably should be) Rani Yahya, Julio Arce (4-4 last eight fights), JP Buys (out of the UFC) and Jesse Strader (also out of the UFC). The only solid win in his career came against Brian Kelleher in 2018 when Jackson caught him with a D'Arce choke early on, and you aren't going to submit Blackshear.

Blackshear has never tapped across 21 professional and eight amateur fights.

While Blackshear is coming off a loss, it was against the highly touted Mario Bautista. That is not a bad loss, and he put on a solid effort by out-striking Bautista and landing four takedowns while accumulating three minutes of control time.

I trust Blackshear more in the takedown game and unquestionably in the submission department. Jackson has a strong wrestling background, but that is a dangerous game plan against a guy of Blackshear's submission capability.

If you take that away from Jackson, then far more opportunities open up for the betting underdog, which is why I like Blackshear at this price.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear (+125 Caesars Sportsbook)

Dann Stupp: Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

Drew Dober's stock has dropped too low. Jean Silva's stock may very well be inflated and too high.

Put them together, and I think we're getting some pretty straightforward value on this can't-miss lightweight bout on tonight's main card.

Silva has dazzled in 2024 after parlaying a Contender Series win into a UFC contract and then knockout wins over Westin Wilson and Charles Jourdain.

The recent victory over Jourdain came just two weeks ago.

Now, Silva (-120) moves up a weight class – on short notice – to fight one of the lightweight division's most formidable knockout artists. I mention "short notice" because, even if Silva is relatively unscathed from his fight two weeks ago, the high altitude of Denver requires a different kind of readiness.

Dober (+100), who fights out of Denver, is naturally acclimated for the bout. He's also fought a handful of times on Denver fight cards, so he knows exactly what to expect from the altitude and how to manage his gas tank.

Dober's recent decision loss to Renato Moicano has knocked the 35-year-old's stock to a low. The stench of Dober's recent KO loss to hard-hitting Matt Frevola three bouts ago also looms a little too large in oddsmakers' and bettors' minds.

I'd make Dober at least a 60% favorite (-150 odds) in this fight, yet we can get him widely available at +100 odds (50% implied win probability). That's simply too much value for me to pass up.

The Pick: Drew Dober (+100 at ESPN BET)

Sean Zerillo: Muslim Salikhov vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

The UFC Denver co-main event features a pair of aging welterweights: 37-year-old Santiago Ponzinibbio (-185) and 40-year-old Muslim Salikhov (+150), both entering off a knockout loss with a 1-3 record in their past four fight bouts.

Ponzinibbio is the taller and longer fighter (1" taller, 2" reach advantage), which should help him find the target in his preferred pocket boxing exchanges. The "Argentine Dagger" will also mix in low kicks to limit Salikhov's movement.

"The King of Kung Fu," a multi-time wushu sanda world champion, has better footwork, movement and kicks from distance – and he will look to use the entire width of the octagon to force Ponzinibbio to chase him down.

Salikhov's past two fights (both losses) occurred in the UFC Apex, where the smaller octagon forcibly limited his movement. In contrast, Ponzinibbio's striking thrives when opponents are forced to stand before him (1-1 at the Apex, including a split-decision loss to Michel Pereira).

Neither fighter has great cardio or durability at this stage of his career. Nor do I see much separation between them in those physical characteristics, which are vital at elevation in Denver.

Salihov typically tires when opponents force him to grapple. And if anything, he possesses the grappling upside in this matchup.

I expect a close and competitive striking affair in which Salikhov proves himself slightly more efficient on the feet (+0.7 to 0.4 career strike differential at range) – with better defense – while throwing the more eye-catching techniques.

I projected his moneyline at +141; take +150 or better on Salikhov.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov (+164)