NASCAR Odds, Expert Pick for Pocono: A Top-20 Bet for The Great American Getaway 400 (Sunday, July 14)

The Tricky Triangle plays host to all three NASCAR national series this weekend as the Cup Series contests The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway.

In my modeling, I've found track-type history at the larger flat tracks, which includes Pocono and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, to be the second most predictive metric aside from only current speed and form, especially at higher-speed intermediate tracks.

That leads me to my favorite early-week bet on a driver who's excelled at this track type, and on higher speed intermediates in general.

Here's my early pick for Sunday at Pocono (2:30 p.m. ET, USA Network).

NASCAR Odds, Picks for Pocono

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has raced six times at Pocono with his current team, JTG Daugherty Racing, and he's put up some solid numbers in the No. 47 Chevy.

In 2020, Stenhouse posted finishes of 17th and 15th while maintaining a 16th-place average running position between the two races. The next year he finished 15th and 38th, but that poor result overshadowed a top-10 finish in Stage 1 as well as top-20 speeds in both races as measured by my FLAGS metric.

In the first race in the Next Gen car at Pocono, Stenhouse grabbed an 18th-place finish, and then just last year, he backed that up with a seventh-place finish. In both of those races he also posted top-20 speeds in FLAGS.

To sum things up, Stenhouse is five for six in achieving a top-20 finish with his current team at Pocono – while running 20th or better on speed in every single one of those races.

He's posted strong numbers at other higher-speed intermediate tracks as well, including top-20 finishes at both Las Vegas and Kansas, as well as having a top-20 car on speed at Texas and Dover.

Stenhouse must win to get into the playoffs, and with strategy and restarts so important at Pocono, that leaves plenty of upside for him to chase at a strong track for him.

The Bet: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishing position under 20.5 (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook) | Bet to: -130