Celtics vs Mavericks Picks, Prediction: NBA Finals Series Preview
Getty Images. Design by Action Network. Pictured: Boston’s Jayson Tatum (left) and Dallas’ Luka Doncic (right).
The 2024 NBA Finals are here, as the Boston Celtics prepare to face the Dallas Mavericks.
The Celtics were always supposed to be here.
They were the juggernauts, finishing 14 games ahead of every other Eastern Conference foe and barely breaking a sweat in the East playoffs, coasting into the Finals at 12-2 — even with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined for most of the journey.
Boston was a heavy East favorite for months.
The Mavs are the upstart surprise.
They're just the second No. 5 seed ever to make the Finals and would be only the third non-top three seed ever to win a championship (1969 Celtics, 1995 Rockets).
Dallas dispatched the Clippers in a coin-flip series, then upset the highly-seeded Thunder and Timberwolves.
Boston has been to the Conference Finals in six of the last eight seasons. Will Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown finally finish the job? The Celtics are priced as significant favorites at -210 (DraftKings), implying a better than two-in-three chance of winning it all.
But Luka Doncic is the best player in the series, and he's four wins away from giving the franchise a second championship. Dallas is the underdog at +188 (FanDuel), but the Mavs just won twice as 'dogs.
The team with the better record is 18-6 (75%) in the Finals this century and 31-10 (76%) since the advent of the 16-game playoff.
The home team is 31-9 in Game 1 of the Finals (78%) in that stretch, and those Game 1 winners are 24-7 in the series (77%) — and this is an even bigger win-profile gap than usual in the Finals.
The odds are against Dallas. Do the Mavs have one more upset in them, or will Boston finally finish the job?
Celtics vs Mavericks Picks & Prediction
When the Celtics Are on Offense
If you love 3-pointers, this is the series for you.
Boston led the league in 3s made and attempted in the regular season and ranked second in 3-point percentage at 38.8%. Since Joe Mazzulla took over, the Celtics have skewed heavily toward 3s and took just under half their shots from beyond the arc this season.
Boston had the league's No. 1 regular-season offense and does so far in the playoffs, too.
The Celtics are beating their opponents with math. Boston is 58-6 including the postseason when it hits at least 35% of its 3s for the game. That's not even a particularly strong shooting night, but Boston is nearly invincible in those games.
That's exactly two-thirds of all Celtics games, and they're still a .500 squad even when they fall below that number.
Dallas is in the Finals because of its defense, not its offense, but the huge defensive improvement has come inside the arc, packing the paint and protecting the rim. That should help offset Boston's No. 2 ranking in 2-point percentage some, but the Celtics take fewer 2s than any team in the league. Dallas actually ranks below league average in 3-pointers made and allowed defensively, and in 3-point percentage allowed too.
Both of these teams are excellent when they have the shooting advantage, and that means shot variance will play a role. But Boston takes more 3s and has the better shooters against the worse 3-point defense.
Advantage, Celtics.
Dallas' defense is beatable on the offensive glass and in fast-break points, but neither of those is a major strength for Boston, though the healthy return of Porzingis could help a lot on the glass.
Porzingis is the X-factor for Boston and maybe for the series. Boston needs his shooting and clutch post-ups on offense, and it needs his rim protection and defense in space. If Porzingis is limited or out, that can swing the entire series.
I wrote about the importance of Porzingis and why I'm betting his over 15.4 PPG series average and sprinkling him at +6000 to win Finals MVP.
Neither team has much depth past its bigs, but Boston's four other starters should all be prepared to play heavy minutes after six easy weeks, especially with Finals games spaced apart.
The Mavs really don't have many defensive answers on the wing against Tatum and Brown. Derrick Jones Jr. is a bit undersized, and P.J. Washington isn't exactly a go-to stopper. Josh Green will get run off the bench. These guys are going to have to hit shots on the other end and try to stay out of foul trouble.
Boston's biggest question on offense, outside of Porzingis and the 3-point shot variance, will likely come from clutch offense and coaching.
The Celtics had the best net rating in the NBA in the fourth quarter and have won a number of close games in the playoffs, but we've seen far too many instances of Tatum or Brown dribbling the ball innumerate times before shooting a fadeaway jumper in the clutch to feel great.
Mazzulla hasn't had to answer many questions yet and hasn't shown an ability to adjust quickly. Boston has yet to be punched in the mouth or forced to respond, at least this postseason. Will Dallas finally ask the question no one else has yet?
When the Mavericks Are on Offense
Like Boston, Dallas will shoot a ton of 3s in these Finals.
The Mavs trailed only the Celtics in 3s made in the regular season and took 44% of their shots from deep, though they were closer to league average (13th) in 3-point percentage.
These are two of only four teams in history to enter the Finals averaging at least 14 made 3s per game.
Dallas' 3s look a bit different from Boston's, though.
Boston runs a more egalitarian offense and moves the ball quickly to generate more assisted looks, but a lot of Dallas 3s come on step-back Doncic jumpers, and many of the others are generated directly by Luka passes. Doncic is the engine.
The Mavs took and made more corner 3s than any team and are shooting over 40% on corner 3s in the playoffs. Doncic generated 71 more corner 3-point attempts than his next closest competitor, per Second Spectrum.
Boston's defense ranked in the top quarter of the league in most 3-point attempts allowed but was No. 4 in 3-point percentage at 35.2%. The Celtics were the best in the league against corner 3s, and opponents are shooting just 23.5% on corner triples against them this postseason.
This series will not be won or lost in the paint. These teams took fewer 2s than any team in the league.
Instead, 3s will rain, but Dallas' 3s may be more difficult in the form of step-back Js or shots from worse shooters like Washington or Jones, possibly from above the break.
That's a losing math equation for the Mavs.
Boston needs Porzingis defensively since 38-year-old Al Horford can't switch and recover or protect the rim like he once did. Dallas bigs Daniel Gafford and especially Dereck Lively II should find some of the lobs they've been getting all postseason, and Boston will likely pre-switch to try to avoid getting its big men into pick-and-roll defense against Luka Doncic.
No team in the NBA has more defenders to throw at Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Tatum and Brown probably get the first crack at Doncic, and Derrick White and Jrue Holiday could give Irving fits. Irving is 2-12 against White and 8-16 against Holiday in his career and has seen inefficient, weakened production in 10 games — all losses — against Boston since the Celtics acquired White.
The story of this postseason has been the best player in the series losing. Boston can beat Dallas even if Doncic is the best player on the court; what it can't do is let Irving be great, too.
I'm betting on a down series for Irving against his old team. I wrote about why he's such a big X-factor for the Mavs and why I'm betting his under 24.1 PPG series average at DraftKings.
Dallas' offense versus Boston's defense looks like the more unpredictable matchup of the series.
In the regular season, the Mavs barely ever turned it over, got to the line an average amount and rarely grabbed offensive rebounds. But in the playoffs, Dallas ranks top-five in most turnovers, free throws and offensive rebounds.
Boston is good but not great on the glass and doesn't run a ton in transition, so that's one area where Dallas might find an advantage. The Celtics forced the second-fewest turnovers by design, but they also sent opponents to the free-throw line less than any team.
Can Boston defend Doncic and Irving without fouling and force them to hit difficult shots? Will Luka and Kyrie hit them anyway? Who wins the rebounding battle? Will Dallas's recent turnover issues persist?
There's much to be learned on this side of the ball — and it could very well determine the series.
Split Your Best Bet: Exact Series Score
Celtics in 5 (+400), 6 (+500) & 7 (+450)
Luka Doncic has played eight playoff series. He's 7-1 against the series spread, and six of those eight series have gone at least six games.
As long as Dallas has had Doncic, the Mavs have been live in any series. They're live here, too.
Doncic is the best player on the court, and Jason Kidd has looked like the better coach. Add in the uncertainty of Porzingis' health and the unknowns of 3-point variance and clutch performance, and there could be big swings in both individual games and the series at large.
Still, Boston is the better team, and I'm betting that the team beats the individual — like it does so often in basketball and like it most often has throughout this postseason.
If I knew Porzingis was fully healthy, I'd feel more confident in the Celtics and see clear value on the series line — even at -210. But I don't like laying that sort of juice. Instead, I'll get creative.
I don't see a Celtics sweep. Doncic's Mavs have only ever lost in fewer than six games once, and he's never been swept. Doncic and Irving are too good, and there's too much 3-point variance in this series — not to mention Boston's propensity to screw around and get overconfident — to worry about a sweep.
If we chop out a sweep and Frankenstein our bet together at three books, we can bet Celtics in 5 at +400 (Caesars), Celtics in 6 at +500 (ESPN Bet), and Celtics in 7 at +450 (BetMGM).
Those three bets together give us an implied -122 bet (54.8%) on Boston to win but not sweep, and that's our bet. I'll bet a full unit on each, which means we're risking three units to return 5.0, 6.0 or 5.5 units as long as Boston doesn't sweep or lose the series outright. I like those odds.
We've even got some options to cover ourselves. If Boston goes up 3-0, we can still hedge with a road moneyline bet in Dallas for Game 4 to cover a sweep. More importantly, we can bet a Mavs moneyline likely north of +200 in Game 7 as long as Boston gets there.
If you prefer a simpler bet, I've got two other options for you.
One of the best bets in the NBA historically is backing the home team with the better record in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
That team is 16-3 ATS over the last 19 seasons, per Bet Labs, and 17-2 SU. That's an 89% win rate, up even further from the 78% those teams have averaged historically over the four decades in this playoff format.
Over the last decade, the home team with the better record has won Game 1 and gone on to win the Finals seven times (70%). Over the past four decades, that team is 24-16 to win both Game 1 and the series, a 60% hit rate.
Doncic is 2-6 SU in his first game of a playoff series, often coming on later in the series, and Kidd is 3-7 ATS and SU as a coach in Game 1s.
I'll be backing Boston to win and cover in Game 1 at home, and you can play the Celtics to win both Game 1 and the series double at -130 at DraftKings as an alternate series angle.
One other angle is slightly juicier with a little extra risk.
If you think the Celtics win Game 1 but don't sweep the series, there's a pretty strong chance that means Boston loses one of the next two games. If you think they lose exactly one of them, you can bet the Celtics to lead the series 2-1 after three games at +110 at Fanatics.
Props & Other Angles
My two favorite series-long props were mentioned above: Kyrie Irving under 24.1 PPG series average and Kristaps Porzingis over 15.4 PPG, assuming he's cleared to play Game 1. I made the case for both in my X-factors article so you can read more there.
The Kyrie PPG under is my favorite bet of the Finals.
My favorite series leader bet by far is Luka Doncic to lead the series in scoring at -136 at BetRivers. He's at 31.3 PPG in the playoffs, and I expect him to need to score plenty, especially if Irving is somewhat limited.
Tatum is his closest competition and usually ends up around 25-27 PPG in the playoffs, but Porzingis could cut into his scoring.
Doncic is priced at -250 head-to-head against Tatum at DraftKings, and that's closer to what this number should be in what's likely a head-to-head market.
I'll pass on the other series markets for now, but I'll keep an eye on the rebounds market and will be watching the 3s leader market closely.
We're expecting a ton of 3s in what could be a long series, so that market looks ripe to bet against an early-series leader with a long shot or two.
I'm expecting pretty heavy, consistent production from both Tatum and Doncic. Normally, I tend to avoid the "Player to do X in every game" of a series as sucker bets since it only takes one random under for any number of reasons to blow it, but I like a couple of Tatum markets.
My favorite Finals long shot bet is Tatum to record a double-double every game of the series at +1600 at BetMGM.
He'll have the points every game, so this is mostly just a bet on double-digit rebounds. Tatum has a double-double in 11-of-14 playoff games (79%), though he's missed once each series.
If the series goes six games, we need at least a 62% chance for this to be in our favor. With an assumed 79% hit rate, this market would theoretically be priced closer to +310.
Tatum is +650 to record at least five assists in every game at ESPN Bet. We'd need at least a 72% hit rate across six games for that to be in our favor. Tatum's had 5-plus assists in eight of his nine games in the last two rounds (89%), and the one miss was by a single assist.
Tatum's floor is 10 rebounds and five assists in a majority of his games, with a stray eight-board or four-dime game sneaking in. Let's pray for no blowouts and hope we avoid those strays.
How about one last note on how to bet the Celtics game-to-game in the Finals?
Since the 2020 bubble, Boston tends to get overconfident and sloppy after a win, a motif these Celtics still haven't shaken. The Celtics are just 11-19 ATS in the playoffs (37%) since 2020 after winning by more than 10 points, including 3-5 ATS this season. And remember, Boston barely won Game 4 against Indiana.
But if the Celtics lose outright when favored, as they so often do, and send the NBA world abuzz once more about their unworthiness to the throne, remember that Boston almost always responds.
In the same window, the Celtics are 13-3 ATS as favorites after losing as favorites in the playoffs.
Look to back Dallas after a big Boston win, but bet the Celtics to bounce back when favored even after another embarrassing loss as favorites.
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