Nuggets vs Timberwolves Odds, Pick: Bet Denver in Game 3

The DenverNuggets try to save their season to redeem themselves in Game 3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, May 10 — we provide our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

With the looming MVP curse, Nikola Jokic and company seek to avoid a 0-3 hole as they face a challenging test on the road after letting the first two games on their home floor slip away. Do the Nuggets have enough gas in the tank to bounce back and steal a crucial Game 3 in Minnesota? Or will Anthony Edwards and the T-Wolves put their foot down at home and inch that much closer to the Western Conference Finals? It all goes down tonight with tip-off at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Let's get into our expert prediction and betting picks for the matchup.

Denver has looked completely overmatched in every department through the first two games but the only place for them to go is up after game 2. I think it’s important to emphasize how much different the narrative around this series would be if the Nuggets had won game 1 and we were sitting at 1-1. They obviously lost that game but that game was essentially a coin flip. The reality is that they are down 2-0 and are coming off an embarrassing blow out loss but this is still a 7 game series and they are still the defending the champs. I think there is a chance that they don’t dwell on that Game 2 loss and come out looking like an entirely different team here on the road.

The Nuggets have a path to success here if they can just cut down on their turnovers and sprint back in transition defense. So many of their issues stem from laziness in transition as they are allowing 190 points per transition play through two games. Their halfcourt defense hasn’t been great either but a defensive rating of 100.0 isn’t awful. Offensively, they need Nikola Jokic to be aggressive on every possession. Jokic has been quick to defer to sideline dribble handoffs with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jamal Murray but he has to turn and drive the ball towards the rim way more in my opinion.

If Jokic starts being aggressive it will open up their offense and will likely get Karl-Anthony Towns in foul trouble. His usage rate of 26.1% in game 2 is just not going to cut it and they will need his usage to be similar to game 1 where he had a usage rate of 45%. The Nuggets can only pull off this upset if they get the MVP version of Nikola Jokic.

The Timberwolves offense has been elite in transition and good in the half-court but it is likely due for some negative regression. The Nuggets defense hasn’t been great but the Wolves are still shooting 40.4% from three and 49% from the mid-range. They are shooting a league best 50% from “long mid-range” in this round. These are likely unsustainable numbers over the long run and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Wolves come back to earth after a 3-day layoff. As mentioned before, the Wolves have been dominant in transition and just good in the half-court so if the Nuggets can force this team to actually play in the half-court they will have a chance.

I will back the Nuggets on the moneyline here as I think the 3-day rest could prove massive in mentally and physically resetting for them. Everything that could go wrong went wrong in game 2 but game 1 is a coin-flip and with Gobert back in the lineup I think this Wolves offense could be a bit more turnover prone. Gobert is an elite player but we saw that the nuggets actually looked a bit more comfortable in game 1 than they did in game 2. If we see some Wolves negative shooting regression and a little more urgency out of Denver I think Denver could get a road win here.

Pick: Nuggets Moneyline

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