NBA Free Agency: How the Betting Market Reacted to 76ers Signing Paul George
Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George (76ers)
Maybe this star combination will finally get Joel Embiid to the NBA Finals. Maybe this time Daryl Morey has found the right star combination after so many great trades failed to get him a ring. Maybe the Sixers have finally done it.
The Philadelphia 76ers agreed to terms late — and I mean late — Sunday on a four-year, $212 million deal with star free agent Paul George. The Sixers, with an excess of cap space, were able to convince George to leave his preferred location of the West Coast to join Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in building a new contender.
Maxey followed up with a five-year, $204 million extension.
George fits perfectly on the Sixers. He's a connector who can have offensive bursts — even if he rarely carries that through for four quarters. He'll help on both ends of the floor and can help Maxey navigate the second-unit minutes without Embiid.
George is fading at age 34, and he won't be worth his contract in the coming years of this deal. But it helps the Sixers once again try to build a team that's good enough to survive the games and minutes when Embiid is not on the floor, whether for rest or due to injury.
George is still an excellent "connector" with great length. He'll need a fair amount of time off due to injury, but if the Sixers can just — for once in their miserable Embiid existence — get lucky with injuries and avoid him and Embiid both missing multiple weeks at the same time, they should be fine.
George will need to be more of that connector than he was last season with the Clippers, when the team went to heavy isolation sets.
But one of the real advantages of George is how versatile he is.
Paul George last season
94th percentile spot-up
92nd percentile scoring out of pick and roll, 89th percentile including passes
75th percentile ISO, 77th including passes
63rd percntile off screens
80th percentile postupLed the Clippers in EPM and Estimated Wins. Was only 4th in…
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 30, 2024
That versatility will help tremendously, as the Sixers can get predictable with teams loading up on Embiid in pick-and-roll and throwing larger defenders at Maxey.
The Sixers found a great formula of role players last year, but Embiid's knee injury — which he never recovered from in the playoffs — made it easier for the Knicks to win games by destroying Philly in the non-Embiid minutes.
The Sixers were able to surround Embiid with capable role players last season, but they didn't have three-level scorers beyond Maxey.
George helps with establishing more of that.
With George under contract, we'll see how the Sixers use the rest of their ample cap space, whether by re-signing members of last year's team — most of whom are free agents — or adding other deals.
The Sixers are expected to continue to be aggressive as they load up to finally — finally — get Embiid a team around him that can make the conference finals — and beyond — for the first time.
The Sixers added Daryl-Morey-favorite Eric Gordon and re-signed Kelly Oubre Jr. on Sunday as part of those efforts.
Betting Market Reaction
The Sixers were +1400 odds several days ago and +10000 consensus title odds on Saturday afternoon before the signing of George. They moved to +800 at several places and +700 at SuperBook in the US market after adding the All-Star wing.
That's a move from 9.09% implied at +1000 to 12.5% at +700. That's not exactly a massive jump, but +700 represents the shortest odds for the Sixers since 1986, per SportsOddsHistory.com.
Conference odds are a better indicator of how the Sixers' championship growth grew with the addition of PG. The Sixers were +500 in market consensus on Saturday to win the Eastern conference, moving to +400 after.
That moves them from +16.7% implied to 20% implied. They're currently the second-favorite to win the Eastern Conference behind division and longtime rival the defending NBA champion Boston Celtics.
The Celtics, Sixers and Knicks now make up over 78% implied of the odds to win the Eastern Conference title at consensus in the US market.
That obviously presents an opportunity to bet the other teams. After trades like this, you never want to buy in at that moment. There are always dips in teams' fortunes.
The Celtics, for example, went from +130 (44% implied) to +150 (40%) to win the East. There will be better prices on the Celtics (maybe, maybe they just roll again) at some point next season. You have time for the favorites.
But teams like the Cavaliers (who are still waiting to re-sign Donovan Mitchell) at +2000 and the Bucks at +600 (15% implied) — who had a season from hell and still won enough games to win the division and finish third in the East– present better buy-low opportunities now.
The signing of George was a master stroke, but it's still dependent on Embiid being healthy for a playoff run for the first time in a long time and for one of the few times in his career, and George staying healthy at what will be age 35 next spring, and for the pieces to fit around the Big 3 like they did around Maxey and Embiid last season.
The Atlantic Division now has nearly 47% implied probability to win the NBA title between the Celtics, Sixers and Knicks alone.
That should make for a wild season in an Eastern Conference that needed some juice despite hosting the defending champions.
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