2024 Heisman Trophy Odds, Picks & Futures: Is Kansas State QB Avery Johnson Worth a Wager?

The term "generational talent" gets thrown around too liberally in sports media. But when you view a player and their respective talents through the lens of program history, it becomes more reasonable to make grandiose statements about their potential impact.

And when it comes to Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson, I’ll admit he has the makings of a generational talent in Manhattan.

Before I dissect his game and why a 40-1 ticket is too tempting to pass up, let’s examine a few things outside of Johnson's control.

The Manhattan-to-Manhattan Pipeline

While Kansas State has never produced a Heisman Trophy winner, a few Wildcats have been in the conversation over the past 25 years.

Michael Bishop nearly guided K-State to a national title in 1998 and was rewarded with a second-place finish in the Heisman race. Five years later, Darren Sproles received 15 first-place votes and finished fifth overall. And most recently, in 2012, Collin Klein sat in Times Square as a third-place finisher behind Manti Te’o and Johnny Manziel.

If a player puts up huge stats and wins a lot of games in the Little Apple, there’s nothing holding them back from their Heisman dreams in the Big Apple.

The Big 12's Auto-Bid (Auto-Bye?)

Speaking of winning games, let’s talk about the Heisman through the lens of wins and losses.

In the last decade, eight of the 10 Heisman winners appeared in the College Football Playoff. The only exceptions are Louisville's Lamar Jackson and USC's Caleb Williams — and both of them put up video-game numbers and helped their teams to top-five CFP rankings for at least one week during the season.

Right or wrong, voters care deeply about the Heisman winner leading a national title contender. And with the 12-team field about to debut this December, there are going to be a lot more contenders.

Not only does the Big 12 hold an auto-bid to the CFP, but it’s very likely that it'll receive a first-round bye. Because of the new CFP committee rules, there’s also a high probability that the fourth and final team to receive a bye to the quarterfinals won’t actually be ranked fourth overall.

Allow me to explain.

The top four conference champions all receive byes, and in the new Power Four world, that means that all the fourth and final team needs to do to secure a bye is to finish higher in the CFP rankings than the Group of Five champion. Given how many elite teams there are in the SEC and Big Ten, it’s likely that either the ACC or Big 12 champ (or both) finishes outside the top four.

Let’s take a look at the final CFP rankings from 2022 to demonstrate how this could play out.

Kansas State was 9-3 when it walked onto the field for the Big 12 Championship against No. 3 TCU. It had no chance of making the College Football Playoff.

But had it been 2024, not only would that win have given the Wildcats a conference title, but it also would have given them a CFP berth and a first-round bye when accounting for the Pac-12's departure and the top G5 team, Tulane, finishing 16th.

Yes, they still would technically be ranked in the Nos. 6-8 window, but they would enjoy a bye through the first round of the CFP.

I’m willing to bet — quite literally — that this phenomenon will elevate the Heisman candidacies of three or four players each season who previously would have been shut out from the Heisman race completely.

How Did K-State Get Avery Johnson?

Johnson is the highest-rated quarterback prospect to ever sign with the Wildcats. And for a blue-collar program like Kansas State, the stars had to align just right for that to happen.

Johnson played his high school football in Wichita, Kansas, which gave K-State a huge leg up in his recruitment. The Sunflower State only produces a few blue-chip recruits per cycle, so it’s critical for the Wildcats to keep poachers out of their home state.

Luckily for the 'Cats, longtime recruiting coordinator Taylor Braet grew up in Wichita and was on the three-sport star from the very beginning. This helped KSU fend off national programs like Notre Dame, Oregon, Tennessee and Washington from snatching up the dual-threat passer.

Likewise, when Kansas State offensive coordinator Collin Klein — the same Heisman finalist from 2012 — left this offseason for A&M, it was Johnson’s close relationship with the coaching staff that convinced him to stay.

Had it not been for the proximity and years of relationship building, Johnson likely would have been swayed by NIL riches to play elsewhere.

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Is Avery Johnson A Special Talent?

In a word, yes.

He’s arguably the fastest player on the Wildcats (4.24 20-yard shuttle), but he’s not just a straight-line burner. He sets up blocks, has tremendous lateral quickness and has the kind of vision to operate from a run-first, spread-option attack.

Against Texas Tech last fall, he ran for 90 yards and five touchdowns. In that game, he showed a playing style eerily reminiscent of former West Virginia quarterback Pat White.

When he finally got a chance to start, he won MVP honors at the Pop-Tarts Bowl, scoring three touchdowns in a 28-19 win over NC State.

That was enough to push Will Howard out the door after he started 28 games for K-State and earned second-team All-Big 12 honors in 2023. That’s one star quarterback recognizing Johnson’s ceiling and getting out of dodge.

As a passer, Johnson’s baseball background explains why he can throw off-platform so well. He will need time to refine his downfield touch, but the Wildcats have excellent skill players around him.

DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards are an elite one-two punch at running back, so defenses won’t be able to just spy Johnson all game long in the hopes of corralling him on the ground.

I’m confident in new co-offensive coordinator Matt Wells' ability to tailor this offense around Johnson’s evolving skill set. Wells has raved all offseason long about Johnson’s coachability and desire to become a better “situational” quarterback. Wells' mindset — one of fine-tuning this sports car — is just what Johnson needs for a breakout season.

Schedule-wise, after a warmup against Tennessee-Martin, K-State’s road trip to Tulane screams "offensive fireworks" and could be a mini coming-out party for the sophomore.

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Final Thoughts on Avery Johnson

In my opinion, the Big 12 is going to be the guilty pleasure of every college football fan this season.

The national champion is likely going to come out of either the Big Ten or SEC, but if you’re looking for high-scoring affairs, a compelling conference title race and Heisman-worthy highlights, the Big 12 is going to have that in spades.

Grabbing at least one Big 12 signal-caller to add to your Heisman portfolio is an absolute necessity, and Johnson is one breakout game away from his odds plummeting down to the 10-1 range. Now is the time to buy.

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