NCAAF Projections
SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4:00 PM Delaware St DLS Hawaii HAW | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Florida St FSU GA Tech GT | -13 +13 | -13 +13 | -12.5-112 +13.5-108 | |||||
8:00 PM Montana St MOS New Mexico UNM | -4.5 +4.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-115 +5.5-105 | |||||
12:00 AM SMU SMU Nevada NEV | -19.5 +19.5 | -24 +24 | -23.5-110 +23.5-105 | |||||
10:00 PM Howard HOW Rutgers RUT | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM UNH NH UCF UCF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Central Conn CCSU C. Michigan CMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM NC A&T NCAT Wake Forest WF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Lafayette LAF Buffalo BUFF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Fordham FOR Bowling Green BGSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM W. Carolina WCU NC State NCST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Jackson St JKST LA-Monroe ULM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM Duquesne DUQ Toledo TOL | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM AR-Pine Bluff APB Arkansas ARK | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM SE Louisiana SEL Tulane TULN | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Coastal Car CC Jax State JVST | +3 -3 | +4 -4 | +4.5-110 -4-110 | |||||
12:00 AM NW State NWS Tulsa TLSA | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Lindenwood LIN Kansas KU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Alcorn State ALCST UAB UAB | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM UNC UNC Minnesota MINN | +1 -1 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5-105 -1.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM Murray State MUR Missouri MIZ | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM ND State NDSU Colorado COLO | +7 -7 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-105 -8.5-105 | |||||
1:00 AM Southern Utah SUU Utah UTAH | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM E. Illinois EIL Illinois ILL | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM Sac State SAC San Jose St SJSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Lehigh LEI Army ARMY | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Temple TEM Oklahoma OU | +39.5 -39.5 | +41.5 -41.5 | +41.5-105 -41-110 | |||||
11:00 PM FL Atlantic FAU Michigan St MSU | +11 -11 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-109 -11-110 | |||||
11:30 PM Elon ELO Duke DUKE | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM W. Michigan WMU Wisconsin WIS | +24 -24 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5-110 -24-110 | |||||
2:30 AM TCU TCU Stanford STAN | -11 +11 | -9 +9 | -7.5-120 +9-110 | |||||
4:00 PM Penn State PSU West Virginia WVU | -10 +10 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5-102 +10.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM Bucknell BUCK Navy NAVY | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Kent State KENT Pittsburgh PITT | +24 -24 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-110 -23.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM Indiana St INST Purdue PUR | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM UConn UCONN Maryland UMD | +24.5 -24.5 | +21 -21 | +20.5-105 -21-110 | |||||
4:00 PM Robert Morris RMU Utah State USU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Illinois St ILS Iowa IOWA | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Austin Peay APSU Louisville LOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM Clemson CLEM Georgia UGA | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-102 -13.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM VA Tech VT Vanderbilt VAN | -10.5 +10.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13-110 +13.5-105 | |||||
4:45 PM Chattanooga CHT Tennessee TENN | +41.5 -41.5 | +41.5 -41.5 | +41.5-112 -41.5-108 | |||||
6:00 PM SD State SDKSU OK State OKST | +8 -8 | +8 -8 | +9.5-105 -8-110 | |||||
6:30 PM Towson TOW Cincinnati CIN | N/A N/A | |||||||
N/A N/A | ||||||||
7:30 PM North Dakota UND Iowa State ISU | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5-110 -27.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM FIU FIU Indiana IU | +18.5 -18.5 | +19.5 -19.5 | +20.5-110 -19.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Akron AKR Ohio State OSU | +50.5 -50.5 | +50.5 -50.5 | +50.5-110 -50.5-109 | |||||
7:30 PM Ohio OHIO Syracuse SYR | +13 -13 | +14.5 -14.5 | +15.5-105 -14.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Merrimack Col MC Air Force AFA | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM W. Illinois WIL N. Illinois NIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM E. Michigan EMU UMass MASS | +1 -1 | PK PK | +1-115 +2.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Miami (OH) M-OH Northwestern NW | +3 -3 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4-110 -3-120 | |||||
7:30 PM UTEP UTEP Nebraska NEB | +28 -28 | +28 -28 | +27.5-104 -27.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Kennesaw St KENN UTSA UTSA | +24 -24 | +22 -22 | +22.5-105 -21.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM East Tenn ETSU App State APP | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM Miami (FL) MIA Florida FLA | -2 +2 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-102 | |||||
7:30 PM Colorado St CSU Texas TEX | +36.5 -36.5 | +36.5 -36.5 | +36-109 -35.5-108 | |||||
8:00 PM Boise State BOISE GA Southern GASO | -8 +8 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10-110 +10.5-110 | |||||
8:15 PM Old Dominion ODU S. Carolina SC | +17 -17 | +17.5 -17.5 | +18.5-112 -17.5-110 | |||||
9:00 PM North Texas UNT S. Alabama USA | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5-122 -5.5-110 | |||||
9:00 PM UC Davis UCD California CAL | N/A N/A | |||||||
9:00 PM Stony Brook SBK Marshall MRSH | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM E. Kentucky EKU Mississippi St MSST | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Richmond RCH Virginia UVA | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Norfolk State NORF E. Carolina ECU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM Campbell CAM Liberty LIB | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:30 PM Idaho State IDS Oregon St ORST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Tarleton TAR Baylor BAY | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Sam Houston SHSU Rice RICE | +12.5 -12.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-108 | |||||
11:00 PM TN-Martin TNM K State KSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM N Alabama UNA Memphis MEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Furman FUR Ole Miss MISS | +42.5 -42.5 | +42.5 -42.5 | +42.5-110 -42.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM Nevada NEV Troy TROY | +18.5 -18.5 | +16 -16 | +16-110 -14-106 | |||||
11:00 PM B-Cookman BCU S. Florida USF | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM Tenn Tech TNT Middle Tenn MTSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM UNLV UNLV Houston HOU | +3 -3 | +3 -3 | +3.5-110 -3-110 | |||||
11:00 PM C. Arkansas CARK Arkansas St ARST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM W. Kentucky WKU Alabama BAMA | +32.5 -32.5 | +31 -31 | +31.5-110 -30.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM UCLA UCLA Hawaii HAW | -18.5 +18.5 | -14 +14 | -13-110 +14-110 | |||||
11:30 PM Alabama A&M AAM Auburn AUB | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM Idaho IDHO Oregon ORE | +43.5 -43.5 | +43.5 -43.5 | +43.5-110 -43.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM Ab Christian ACU Texas Tech TTU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM Fresno State FRES Michigan MICH | +22 -22 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-107 -20.5-106 | |||||
11:30 PM Notre Dame ND Texas A&M TA&M | +1 -1 | +1 -1 | +1-110 -1.5-102 | |||||
11:45 PM Southern Miss USM Kentucky UK | +24 -24 | +25.5 -25.5 | +25.5-110 -25-110 | |||||
12:00 AM TA&M-Comm TAMC San Diego St SDSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM JMU JMU Charlotte CHA | -11.5 +11.5 | -10 +10 | -7.5-113 +10-110 | |||||
12:00 AM Houston Christian HB SMU SMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Grambling St GRA Louisiana UL | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Nicholls St NIC LA Tech LT | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Lamar LAM Texas St TXST | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM S. Illinois SIU BYU BYU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM Georgia State GAST GA Tech GT | +18.5 -18.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +21-109 -20.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM SE Missouri SEM N. Mexico St NMSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:30 AM New Mexico UNM Arizona ARI | +31.5 -31.5 | +30.5 -30.5 | +30.5-108 -30-110 | |||||
2:30 AM Wyoming WYO Arizona St ASU | +7 -7 | +7 -7 | +7-110 -7.5+100 | |||||
3:00 AM Weber State WEB Washington WASH | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM LSU LSU USC USC | -6 +6 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-109 | |||||
11:30 PM Boston Col BC Florida St FSU | +23 -23 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21.5-105 -21.5-110 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.