Last year I took one team win total in the preseason, hitting the Denver Broncos under 8.5 wins at even money.
After taking a deep dive into our 2023 end-of-season Luck Rankings and looking at how luck imapcts each team's 2024 schedule, I'm ready to fire off a bet on a 2024 NFL Win Total.
Nick Giffen's 2024 NFL Futures Pick That Fades the Buccaneers
The Buccaneers won the NFC South at 9-8 last season and picked up a Wild Card Round victory over the Eagles. Tampa Bay gave the Lions a good run for their money in the Divisional Round but lost 31-23.
Tampa Bay's win total for this upcoming season sits at 7.5, -150 to the over and +122 to the under at FanDuel, as of Tuesday morning.
NFL Win Total Best Bet
Luck Rankings
Tampa Bay ended up No. 3 in our Action Network Luck Rankings, playing more like a 6.8-win team despite ending up with a 9-8 record.
Those 2.2 wins over expectation should point to some regression, as teams that come in more than a full win above expectation tend to regress the following year.
The Buccaneers started the season 4-7 and were 17th in our Luck Rankings before going on a 5-1 run to a division title.
However, in those final six games, Tampa Bay actually produced a worse offensive success rate than their opponents. Our Expected Score metric had Tampa Bay getting outscored, 115.1-104, in that span, underscoring just how lucky it was.
Buccaneers' Injury Luck
Those final six games also came at a crucial time in the year when many teams were banged up. However, Tampa Bay had a very lucky 2023 in the injury department. T
he Buccaneers ranked 10th in FTN's adjusted games lost (AGL) and, crucially, almost every single key Buccaneers player played a full 17 games.
The only offensive starter to miss time last season was guard Aaron Stinnie, who was recovering from an injury suffered the previous season. Otherwise, every key contributor played every game.
Since injuries are largely random, it's likely that Tampa Bay will experience some regression in this area.
Bucs' Turnover Luck
Mayfield's 17-game season was not only lucky on the injury front but also in the turnover department.
Mayfield had the largest discrepancy among all QBs between turnover-worthy plays and actual turnovers. His 84 bad balls in the regular season translate to approximately 16.5 interceptions. However, Mayfield threw only 10.
When using turnover-worthy plays, Mayfield comes in around three interceptions under expectation.
The Buccaneers were also ninth in fumble luck, recovering fumbles at higher rates than the league average on both sides of the ball.
Tampa Bay's Scoring Luck
Offensively, 38.9% of Tampa Bay's touchdowns came from 20-plus yards, which was first in the NFL by 3.8% over second-place Minnesota.
The Bucs offense wasn't necessarily explosive, ranking 12th in percentage of plays of 20-plus yards. That tells me their touchdown rate on such plays was well above expectation.
Defensively, Tampa Bay was also lucky to allow fewer touchdowns than expected, forcing opponents into attempting more field goals.
Teams with higher defensive success rates tend to allow fewer touchdowns and more field goal attempts, while teams with less successful defenses allow more touchdowns than field goal attempts. Using their TD/FGA rate, the Buccaneers allowed a 5.9% lower ratio than expected, translating into four touchdowns below expectation.
The Bucs ranked third in the NFL in red-zone scoring TD% allowed, despite ranking in the middle of the pack in defensive success rate. That's unsustainable.
And when the Buccaneers forced field goal attempts instead of touchdowns, Tampa Bay ranked in the top three in the NFL in kicking luck. Opposing kickers made just 80.6% of non-blocked field goals against the Bucs, placing them behind only the Rams and Bears as the luckiest teams in this metric.
2023 & 2024 Schedule Luck
The Buccaneers face a relatively similar strength of schedule to last year in terms of market expectation. The fact that it's somewhat similar shows there could already be value to the under given they played like a 6.8-win team last year by our Expected Scores, which power our Luck Rankings.
As I outlined when breaking down 2024 NFL schedules, the Buccaneers have the luckiest schedule when we look at how their 2024 opponents fared in our 2023 Luck Rankings.
Tampa Bay's average opponent this year has a 2023 Luck% of -3.7%, meaning over the course of a 17-game season, their opponents lost around 0.63 games more than expected.
More than one-half win could be all the difference in this market.
If the market isn't properly factoring in luck — which is true considering the Luck Ranking's 63% hit rate on regular-season NFL sides over the last six years — then the Buccaneers' 2024 schedule is actually harder than last year's.
Intangibles
Former offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now the Panthers' head coach after proving to be vital in Baker Mayfield's success last season. Mayfield had a career year under Canales, posting a career-high in completion percentage as well as top-three career seasons in TD%, INT%, Sack%, QBR and ANY/A.
Liam Coen takes over for Canales, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams when Mayfield was with them in 2022. It's a small sample size, but Mayfield's passing success rate in L.A. was the second-lowest of his career, below only his stint with the Panthers earlier that season.
Also, should Mayfield get injured, 2021 second-round draft pick Kyle Trask has been in a battle with journeyman John Wolford for the backup job. Trask hasn't looked great over a small sample size, and his preseason numbers aren't encouraging.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Outlook and Bet
I'm looking to bet the Buccaneers under 7.5 at +125 (+135 at Circa).
I also don't mind a bet on Tampa Bay to finish last in the NFC South (+475 at bet365). The rest of the NFC South finished in the bottom five of the 2023 Luck Rankings, the Falcons added Kirk Cousins, and Bryce Young should continue to improve.
If the injury bug bites the Bucs hard and their luck regresses, Tampa Bay could go from first to worst.
