Buccaneers Win Boosts Their Playoff Chances in Wild NFC South Race

A wild day in the NFC South has thrown the division into chaos.

The Atlanta Falcons entered the day with a one game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. However, there’s now a three-way tie atop the division following their last-second loss to the Bucs combined with the Saints’ win against the Panthers. As of this week, the Buccaneers have the edge based on the head-to-head tiebreaker despite the fact that all three teams are below .500.

Baker Mayfield’s made a strong case to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback of the future. There was more Mayfield magic on Sunday as he authored a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive culminating in a game-winning 11-yard strike to Cade Otton with just 31 seconds remaining.

The emotional win gives Tampa Bay a strong chance to capture the NFC South crown. The Bucs entered Week 14 with only a 25% chance to win it according to the New York Times' playoff simulator. Their victory upped their chances to as high as 55%, making them the favorite at this point with implied odds of -122. Meanwhile, a loss would have plummeted them down to a minuscule 3% shot.

On the other hand, Atlanta had a 57% chance to win the NFC South prior to kickoff. A win would have given them a stranglehold on the division with odds upwards of 82%. Instead, it’s dropped to low as 28% with implied odds of +257.

Meanwhile, the Saints beat the Carolina Panthers in the other divisional game this week. The win kept them in the race with an approximate 25% chance to capture the crown (implied odds of +300). A loss would have dropped their chances to just 10%.

The next four weeks will be crucial for how the division plays out. The Buccaneers are 1-1 against the Falcons and have a win over the Saints with one more matchup against the Saints in Tampa. The Falcons also have a win over the Saints with their final game of the season against them in New Orleans.