Texans vs Panthers Odds, Pick, Prediction | Week 8

Sunday, Oct. 29

1 p.m. ET

FOX

Texans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3.5 -105	43.5 -110o / -110u	-175

Panthers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3.5 -115	43.5 -110o / -110u	+155

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the latest Texans vs. Panthers odds with an expert pick and prediction for this Week 8 clash.

The Texans are 3.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. At bet365, the over/under is 43.5 total points scored. The Texans are -175 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Panthers are +155 underdogs.

Let's break down this matchup and get to my Texans vs. Panthers pick, which is on the road favorite.

Pick: Texans -3.5 (-110)

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Texans vs. Panthers

Matchup Analysis

Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud will intrinsically be compared to one another after the Panthers chose Young with the first overall pick back in April. The Texans must be ecstatic about that since Stroud has been lights out so far this season. I like his chances to keep the good times rolling against a Panthers defense giving up a league-high 31.0 points per game.

Stroud has Houston’s aerial attack clicking. The Texans rank fifth in pass DVOA, which stands in stark contrast to last season when they ranked 31st. They’ve improved by a whopping 55.7% from last season, which shows just how big a difference Stroud’s made.

Houston’s offense struggled the first couple of weeks, averaging 14.5 points over its first two games, but it's averaging 26.5 over the last four. The Texans are covering the spread by a whopping 16-point average over that span. They're scoring on 44% of their drives, which is the fourth-best mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Panthers are allowing teams to score on an identical 44% of drives over the same timeframe, which is the fourth-worst.

This also is a prime opportunity for Houston’s anemic rushing game to kick into gear. The Panthers are dreadful against the run, ranking dead last in DVOA by an insane margin. Their 22.6% mark is 14 points higher than the Broncos, who have the second worst. To put that further into context, that 14-point margin is the same difference between the teams ranked 31st and 22nd.

Texans -3.5

Panthers +3.5

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Meanwhile, Young’s struggles are the main reason why Carolina is the only team yet to cover the spread this season (0-5-1). They rank 30th in total offensive DVOA, including 29th in the passing game. Young will try to get his first NFL win against a Houston defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest points per game heading into Week 8 (18.8).

A major wild card here is that the Panthers are switching up play callers. Head coach Frank Reich announced prior to the bye that he was handing over duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, which he said was the plan all along. The change could spark an anemic offense but then again, it’s a pretty low bar to eclipse.

Finally, several general trends favor Houston. According to our Evan Abrams, the favorite is 38-23-1 straight-up over the past 20 years when both teams are coming off the bye. Additionally, home 'dogs coming off eight days or more of rest are 3-8 against the spread this season and 38-55-2 over the past 10 years.

Texans vs. Panthers

Betting Picks & Predictions

I may end up looking like a fool – and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time – but I love the Texans laying 3.5. They pass the eye test and have virtually every advantage in terms of stats, trends and underlying numbers.

My biggest worry here is why it’s only 3.5. What are the books seeing that I’m not? It’s only climbed one-half point from what it opened at, and I felt there was a good chance it would move higher than that.

I won’t obsess over that question or let it deter me, though. I never thought I’d say this before the season, but I’m fully comfortable taking the Texans as road favorites. Apparently plenty of others do as well, as our PRO Report shows sharps, the public, big money and several of our top experts taking Houston.

Pick: Texans -3.5 (-110)

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