Patriots vs Dolphins Odds, Pick, Prediction | Week 8

Sunday, Oct. 29

1 p.m. ET

CBS

Patriots Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8 -110	46.5 -110o / -110u	+310

Dolphins Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8 -110	46.5 -110o / -110u	-390

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the latest Patriots vs. Dolphins odds with an expert pick and prediction for this Week 8 AFC East clash.

The Dolphins are eight-point favorites at most sportsbooks. At bet365, the over/under is 46.5 total points scored. The Dolphins are -390 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Patriots are +310 underdogs.

The forecast heading into the weekend called for rain, heavy winds and potentially even a thunderstorm Sunday in Miami. Combine these unfavorable conditions with injuries to Miami’s offense and an inept Patriots offense, and the under is my preferred pick.

Let's preview this matchup and make our Patriots vs. Dolphins pick.

Pick: Under 46.5

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Patriots vs. Dolphins

Matchup Analysis

Reports heading into the week call for wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph, as well as a 40% chance of rain. According to our Pro System, the under is 585-442-9 all-time under these conditions, hitting at a 57% clip.

Meanwhile, these teams combined for 41 points in Miami’s 24-17 Week 2 win over the Patriots. The 41 combined points are the fewest in a Dolphins game this season, and it came in far more favorable conditions than expected on Sunday.

The Dolphins are much more banged up now than they were in that meeting. The offensive line in particular has been decimated. Four-time Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead has been out since that Week 2 victory and is currently on injured reserve. Guard Isaiah Wynn (quad) joined him on IR earlier this week while center Connor Williams (questionable) has missed the last two games with a groin injury.

The Dolphins will be without three of their starting linemen if Williams isn’t able to go. That was the case a week ago in a 31-17 loss to the Eagles when Wynn got hurt after the first drive, and the results were catastrophic. The Dolphins average a league-high 162.3 rushing yards per game but mustered a mere 45 yards against Philadelphia behind a makeshift line.

Meanwhile, three of the league’s most electric playmakers — Tyreek Hill (hip), Jaylen Waddle (back) and Raheem Mostert (ankle) — were limited in practice this week. Hill and Waddle are set to play while Mostert is questionable, though trending in the right direction. Still, we simply don’t know how much each player might be hampered by his injury. Add in potentially tough weather conditions and there should be some concern about them playing up to their normal standards.

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Patriots +8.5

Dolphins -8.5

As for the Patriots offense, I have two words: Mac. Jones.

The much-maligned quarterback struggles against Miami more than any other team. He is 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS all-time against the Dolphins with the offense averaging a paltry 17.4 points per game.

There’s also no way I trust Jones in rainy, windy conditions. I don’t even trust him in normal conditions. He’s the main reason the Patriots average the second-fewest points in the league (14.4).

Making matters worse for the Patriots is that they can’t rely on their running game to ease Jones’ burden. They’re averaging only 3.2 yards per carry over their last four games, which is fourth worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry over the same span, which is tied for seventh-best.

Additionally, Miami’s run defense is far better at Hard Rock Stadium than on the road. The Dolphins allow only 87.7 yards at home compared to 131.0 on the road.

Add it all up and I don’t foresee the Patriots having an easy go of things on offense.

Patriots vs. Dolphins

Betting Picks & Predictions

Even though I’m a bigger fan of the under because of the forecast, I’d likely be on it even in neutral conditions.

The under has hit at a 63% clip (56-33) when two teams allowing at least 24 points per game play each other. Additionally, the under has hit in four of New England’s last five games while the aforementioned injury issues could very well hinder Miami’s electric offense.

Put it all together and I’m firmly backing the under. I’m not alone, either, as 67% of bets and 96% of all money is on it, as well, as of Saturday morning.

Be sure to use our NFL odds page to get the best number for this bet, as it's 46.5 at most sportsbooks.

The Pick: Under 47 (Play to 46.5)