Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds | Premier League Match Picks

Saturday, May 4

7:30 a.m. ET

USA Network

Arsenal Odds	-500
Bournemouth Odds	+900
Draw	+750
Over / Under	3.5  -110 / -110

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal remain at the top of the Premier League table following a dramatic 3-2 victory against North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. The Gunners do not control their own destiny, but winning their final three league matches (Bournemouth, @ Manchester United, Everton) would force Manchester City to win all four of their remaining matches to claim a fourth consecutive Premier League title.

Arsenal's job is to put the pressure on City and hope the Cityzens slip up at some point in this closing match run. The Gunners have been the league's best defense all season long and with just 26.3 xGA and 28 goals conceded in 35 league matches. They had no issue of dispatching Bournemouth on the road in the reverse fixture and are massive -500 moneyline favorites to win on Saturday.

As the season has neared the end though, the Gunners have shown more cracks defensively than they did in the early part of 2024 and even most of 2023. The schedule of opponents has also toughened up, but Arsenal haven't been nearly as dominant defensively in the last six matches. Their small defensive drop off of late opens the door for Bournemouth to make Saturday's match interesting.

Read on for my Premier League match preview ahead of Arsenal vs Bournemouth.

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Arsenal

At one point in the season, Arsenal were allowing just 0.51 xGA per match on home soil. The Gunners are the most elite defensive outfit in Europe this year, but there has been some slight regression from both an analytics and eye test perspective in the last month. The issues began in the second half against Aston Villa as the Gunners struggle to keep control of that match and eventually conceded a full expected goal and two late goals to drop three points at home.

Most of Bayern Munich's chances in the first leg came from Arsenal mistakes, but Bayern also scored twice on Arsenal and then followed it up with 1.3 xG and a victory in Munich in the second leg. Arsenal had consecutive wins in the league against Chelsea and Spurs, but the defense conceded at least 1.5 expected goals in both matches. Even without a penalty, Spurs created more chances than Arsenal in the match overall. The Gunners won because of their dominance of set pieces (and Chelsea's own defensive woes), but the Arsenal defense has trended marginally downward in the last month.

Some of it is schedule — Chelsea, Spurs, Aston Villa and Bayern Munich twice is a difficult run of opponents – but more mistakes have crept into the Arsenal team that simply didn't happen for so many of the first 30 league matches this year.

Instead of playing like a defense that rarely conceded more than 0.6 xG per match, Arsenal have regressed toward a standard excellent defense, not a historic one. As a result, they're more vulnerable to concede than the market suggests.

Bournemouth

Andoni Iraola managed just one win in his first 11 Premier League matches at Bournemouth and nearly lost his job as a result. The Cherries stuck with their first year manager and they've played at a true top eight level since a 6-1 defeat to Manchester City on Nov. 4. Bournemouth are now odds on in the betting markets for a top half finish and have a chance to match or even beat the club's best ever finish in a Premier League season (ninth) with a strong finish to the season.

Bournemouth have a +0.13 xG difference since Nov. 4, which is seventh-best in the PL and only behind Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City. The primary reason for improvement is that they stopped giving away so many high turnovers from mistakes in possession. Iraola's side became more direct and more reliant on long balls. Bournemouth are seventh in xG created and seventh in xG against.

In a season that has been defined by chaotic goalscoring in the mid table, Bournemouth have actually been a modicum of consistency. Dominic Solanke has 18 league goals, three off the golden boot race and is averaging nearly three shots per 90 minutes.

Bournemouth do have some key injuries to contend with ahead of this match. Marcus Tavernier, Antoine Semenyo and Luis Sinisterra will all miss this match as will defender Milos Kerkez. Iraola opted to play winger Dango Ouattara at full back last week and that's a decision that should help Bournemouth from an attacking perspective even if he's not a natural defender.

Arsenal vs Bournemouth

Prediction

Bournemouth have been a top half attacking quality team for the majority of the season now and even with some wide attacking players, the core of the Cherries' attack remains present to pose a real threat to Arsenal's elite defensive metrics. Bournemouth excel on set pieces as well, which never hurts as an underdog who will struggle to maintain possession in this match.

The Gunners are likely to win this match but their price in the market is overvalued. Especially on defense, where they've shown real cracks in the last three weeks. I'd bet both teams to score up to -124.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-115)