Colombia vs Paraguay Picks & Preview | Copa America 2024 Best Bets

Colombia vs Paraguay Odds

Kicking off Monday’s action at Copa America, Columbia and Paraguay begin their tournament with a Group D matchup.

The Columbians come into this competition after going unbeaten in their six CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers.

Meanwhile, Paraguay only picked up one victory over the same stretch, but a great run this summer could bring momentum into WCQ.

There haven’t been many goals in these Copa America openers, and I could see that continuing in this one.

Find my Colombia vs Paraguay picks and betting preview below.

The Cafeteros have the star power and the depth in their squad to make a great run in this competition. It should have multiple players that fans have seen a lot of.

James Rodriguez (São Paulo) and Davinson Sánchez (Galatasaray) give the team a great spine. However, the one that has outperformed the rest in World Cup Qualifying has been Liverpool’s Luis Díaz.

During World Cup Qualifiers, he averaged 4.4 shots per 90 minutes, which was the most of anybody. Díaz posted even more than the likes of Lionel Messi, Vinicius Jr. and Darwin Nunez.

He's so good at cutting inside to create his own shot. Díaz is also a big threat in transition and will need to have a big tournament for Columbia to perform well this summer.

The Columbians are not the only squad in this matchup that has attacking stars in the team. Premier League fans will also know a prominent duo for Paraguay.

Newcastle’s Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso of Brighton can cause nightmares for opposing managers planning to shut down La Albirroja.

Unfortunately, Paraguay manager Daniel Garnerno has not been able to figure out the best formation and tactics to get the best out of the duo.

If Almiron and Enciso can find the back of the net, this is a dangerous team in the loaded Copa America field.

Regardless of the attacking talent in the team, Paraguay have struggled for goals in recent matches and I don’t see that stopping here.

So, my best bet is a same-game parlay, pairing a Columbia win with the total falling under five goals at -115. I also don’t hate a look at the Columbians to secure a shutout win at +162.

If you read BJ’s great futures article for this tournament, you will know that he was down on the Paraguay attack, and the numbers are there to back it up.

This is a nation that only scored one goal in World Cup Qualifying. The issues are down to the fact that Paraguay are relying on low-quality chances.

La Albirroja averaged 11.5 shots per 90 minutes, which was more than Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. However, the team’s average shot distance was 20.8 yards to go along with an expected goal per shot of 0.08, according to fbref.com.

This is also the same side that failed to score in its two pre-tournament friendlies against Chile and Peru.

If you go back to when these teams met in World Cup Qualifying, Columbia won 1-0 and held Paraguay to just 0.7 expected goals.

I’m electing to go with the SGP just in case Paraguay find the back of the net, but I’m expecting another low-scoring victory for the Columbians.

Pick: Columbia ML & Under 5 (-115)

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