Romania vs Netherlands Preview | Romania – Netherlands Prediction & Picks

Tuesday, July 2

12 p.m. ET

FS1

Romania Odds	+750
Netherlands Odds	-250
Draw	+350
Over / Under	2.5  -125o / +100u

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Let's dive into the Romania vs Netherlands odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Tuesday, July 2.

Romania will look for its first-ever victory in the European Championship knockout phase Tuesday when it faces a Netherlands side that underwhelmed in group stage play.

It's only Romania's second knockout match at the Euros, after reaching the quarterfinals in 2000 before losing to Italy. The Netherlands are regulars to this phase, but lost in the Round of 16 in Euro 2020 to Czechia and and finished an unimpressive third in Group D.

The Dutch have won the last four meetings between these sides, including a 2-0 triumph in their last meeting at the Euros in 2008 group play.

More than perhaps any team remaining in the tournament, pragmatic Romania embody the importance of a fast start to a short tournament.

That arrived in the form of three goals inside the opening hour of their 3-0 win over Ukraine. After that outburst, manager Edward Iordănescu's squad compiled only 1.37 non-penalty expected goals — and just one non-penalty big chance — in the last three-and-a-half hours of their group phase, yet still managed to not only advance but win their group based on having the most goals scored in Group E.

Iordănescu will be without left back Nicușor Bancu after he picked up his second yellow card in a 1-1 draw against Slovakia to close group play. But his teammates on yellow cards benefitted from both teams knowing a draw would be enough to progress, and the match decreased significantly in intensity after the hour mark.

With a victory, this Romania side could match the nation's greatest moment on the international stage, when it defeated Argentina 3-2 in the 1994 World Cup round of 16.

After holding France scoreless in a disappointing 0-0 draw, the Netherlands unexpectedly conceded three times to Austria in a 3-2 defeat that was one of the best games of the group stage.

The xG totals suggested the Dutch were the better side, though games states may have played a role there. Twice they came from a goal down to equalize, but despite that Austria held the lead for 73 of the total 90 minutes contested.

While the result was ultimately disappointing, the bigger news from the Dutch point of view was manager Ronald Koeman's decision to lift Joey Veerman for Xavi Simons in the 35th minute and swap a 4-3-3 for a 4-2-3-1.

The Dutch don't have any expected absences coming into the fixture. But they do have a somewhat frustrating habit of conceding before halftime, having done so in two of their group games and thrice more in qualifying.

The Netherlands are clearly the superior side here, but they've not shown themselves capable of making life easy on themselves. They only scored three or more goals in one of their six qualifying games against teams not named Gibraltar, and their four goals scored this tournament have exceeded their 3.6 expected goals created.

In some ways, perhaps they're similar to the imperfect Belgium side that grinded out a 2-0 victory over Romania, but was perhaps fortunate to do so.

I don't see Romania possessing the chance-creation capability or chance-prevention capability to be worth backing for an upset. But signs suggest this will be a tight contest, and a total above 3.5 goals would be extremely surprising.

Without a lot of obvious value on either side and somewhat discouraging attacking track records on both, a low-scoring draw probably has whatever value exists here. So I'm sprinkling a small wager on a same-game parlay on the draw and a total under 2.5 goals at +44o and an implied 18.5% probability.

If the game stays close for a while you'll be in good position to hedge. And when in doubt, the draw is always a good way to go in the knockout phase of the Euros.

Pick: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals (+440, FanDuel)