USMNT’s Updated Odds After Opening Copa America Win

The USMNT got off to a fast start in the 2024 Copa América tournament, as Christian Pulisic’s golazo in the third minute gave them a quick 1-0 lead over Bolivia. They were firmly in control for the next 87-plus minutes on their way to a convincing 2-0 win.

The United States entered the tournament expected to advance to the quarterfinals, but they weren’t favored to win Group C. That honor belonged to Uruguay, which was -130 while the U.S. was +145. Uruguay also had the third-best odds to win the entire tournament at +500 while the U.S. was +1200. Oddly enough, the U.S. ranks ahead of Uruguay in the FIFA world rankings, with the former 11th and the latter 14th.

So, how did Sunday’s results change the USMNT's odds?

It turns out not too much, since Uruguay defeated Panama 3-1 late Sunday night. Uruguay's odds actually decreased more, dropping to -200 while the U.S. moved to +140.

A wild end to Uruguay's game against Panama likely impacted those odds.

It appeared the U.S. would have the goal differential advantage after the first set of games, with Uruguay only up by one late in the match. However, they tallied a pair of goals late to give them a plus-three differential. Things got wild a short while later, though, as Panama scored in the 95th minute to draw the U.S. even in that all important tiebreaker. Nonetheless, Uruguay possesses the second tiebreaker (total goals scored) to put it atop the standings.

The U.S. returns to the pitch Thursday against Panama and is -250 favorites to win the match. They’ll finish group play July 1 against Uruguay in a game many expect to determine who will win Group C. There are a ton of variables between now and that game, but the U.S. is currently +180 while Uruguay is +155. The U.S. is highly favored to move on to the quarterfinals even if it doesn't win its group, as they're -2000 to advance.

Still, there's a big difference between finishing in first or second.

Whichever teams wins the group will face Group D's second-place finisher, while Group C's runner-up has to play Group D's winner. It's a significant difference considering mighty Brazil, which has the second-best odds to win the entire tournament at +225, is widely expected to win the group (-250). The other teams in Group D include Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica.