French Open Predictions | How to Bet Sonego vs Zhang & Dimitrov vs Marozsan (Wednesday, May 29)
Clive Mason/Getty. Pictured: Grigor Dimitrov.
Here are my French Open second round predictions, including Lorenzo Sonego vs. Zhizhen Zhang and Grigor Dimitrov vs. Fabian Marozsan.
The second round of the French Open gets started on Wednesday, and these are my two favorite plays.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Predictions
Lorenzo Sonego (-104) vs. Zhizhen Zhang (-115)
5 a.m. ET
On paper — and according to the odds — this match between Lorenzo Sonego and Zhizhen Zhang is dead even.
So, why am I choosing this as one of my best bets on Wednesday? Well, let’s start with a little background on both players.
First, Sonego is not having a good season. He’s 7-15 overall and came into this tournament in rather poor form after losing his opening match in Lyon to 117th-ranked Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
But dig a little deeper, and maybe the results haven’t been all that bad for the Italian. Mpetshi Peerricard went on to win that 250-event in Lyon, and Sonego produced a round of 16 showing in Monte-Carlo that included a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime.
More importantly, and one of the main reasons I like Sonego in this match, he has experience playing at a high level at Roland Garros. In 2022, Sonego reached the round of 32 before losing to Casper Ruud in five sets. In 2023, Sonego was even more impressive, earning a trip to the round of 16 after defeating Ben Shelton, Ugo Humbert and Andrey Rublev.
This year, Sonego has already picked up where he left off, defeating Humbert in four sets.
There’s no denying Zhang has momentum right now. He reached the quarterfinal round of the 1000-event in Rome and ousted Aleksandar Vukic in the first round of the French Open.
But beyond that run in Rome, Zhang has won two matches in a single tournament just one other time this year (Marseille in early February).
Also, his history at the French Open is rather short. While he was victorious in two matches last year in Paris (and won a set off Ruud in round three), that was the first time he competed in the Grand Slam’s main draw.
Zhang has an edge in clay-court Elo Ratings over Sonego and won the lone meeting between the two. The Italian just beat Humbert on clay, though, and that previous match against Zhang came on grass.
I think Sonego’s experience and serve on clay (20th in Serve Rating on the surface in the past 52 weeks) will give him the upper hand in this one.
Pick: Lorenzo Sonego ML (-104 via FanDuel)
Grigor Dimitrov (-280) vs. Fabian Marozsan (+230)
5 a.m. ET
Grigor Dimitrov — or “Baby Fed” as they used to call him — was once thought to be the next big name in the tennis world.
The Bulgarian never truly reached that potential consistently, though, at least until he started playing some of the best tennis of his career over the last year or so.
Dimitrov is up to No. 10 in the ATP rankings and is 24-8 this season, with one title (Brisbane) and two final appearances (Marseille, Miami) to his name.
His opponent for this second-round match — Fabian Marozsan — doesn’t nearly have the experience level of Dimitrov. The Hungarian is just 24-years old and has only played six Grand Slam matches in his career (including zero main-draw matches at Roland Garros).
In contrast, Dimitrov has played 139 duels in majors and reached the fourth round of the French Open twice (2020, 2023).
What’s working in Marozsan’s favor, though, is the element of surprise and Dimitrov’s lacking clay-court results this season.
Marozsan has never faced Dimitrov in their careers, and we all remember how that went for Carlos Alcaraz last year (albeit at a lower-level tournament).
Meanwhile, as good of an overall season as Dimitrov has had, he’s produced only four clay-court wins in 2024, with the average ranking of those opponents being 105. When your best win since March is Miomir Kecmanovic, that’s not exactly screaming "great form."
Also, Marozsan gets up for the biggest of matches. He reached the quarterfinals in Miami, defeating two top-10 players in the process (Alex de Minaur, Holger Rune). At Indian Wells (another 1000-event), he notched a round of 16 appearance after topping Nicolas Jarry.
I normally hate betting against a plethora experience in Grand Slams, but we’re not asking for Marozsan to record a win — just keep it within the spread.
Pick: Fabian Marozsan +4.5 games (+100 via DraftKings)
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