Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Preview: Sinner – Medvedev Odds & Picks

Sinner vs Medvedev Odds, Sinner – Medvedev Picks

As Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev meet for the 12th matchup of their storied rivalry, Sinner looks to knot up their head-to-head record at six wins a piece with his sixth straight victory over the Russian.

Both players have a single Slam title to their name, yet their careers are on very different trajectories. Medvedev is 28-years old and is doing his best to stick around with the big dogs as long as he can. Meanwhile, Sinner is 22-years old, just won his first Grand Slam in Australia earlier this year and is looking to become one of the sport's all-time greats. Let's look into how the older Medvedev will fare against the Wimbledon favorite.

Here is my Sinner vs Medvedev preview along with my Sinner – Medvedevpick and prediction.

Sinner Continuing Elite 2024 Level

Sinner has been dominant all season long. His 42-3 record on the season comes on the back of four titles, the most recent of which coming on grass in Halle, Germany back in June. His year started strong in Melbourne when he came back from down two sets to love to defeat none other than Medvedev in the final of the 2024 Australian Open. This Grand Slam victory sparked Sinner's rise to the top spot in the rankings.

Sinner's head-to-head against Medvedev tells a story similar to that of his career. In his first six matches against the Russian, Sinner just couldn't get over the hump, falling short all six times. Then, in September 2023, Sinner secured his first win over Medvedev with a tight 7-6 7-6 victory. Since then, his five straight victories over the Russian align with his takeover of the tennis world.

Though Sinner's need for a miraculous comeback against Medvedev in the Australian Open final could be seen as a weakness in the history of this head-to-head, I see it as the moment Sinner realized he has Medvedev's number for the rest of his career. Dropping the first two sets can be attributed to nerves from his maiden Grand Slam final. Once he settled in, he took care of business accordingly, and this supreme confidence against Medvedev trickled into the only meeting since, as Sinner won 6-1 6-2 in the Miami Open semifinal.

Medvedev Looking to Silence Narrative

The 2024 Australian Open is a perfect summary of Medvedev's career. Getting so close to glory then falling just short of the finish line. Medvedev has played in six Grand Slam finals in his career, yet he has just one victory, which came in the 2021 US Open against Novak Djokovic. Medvedev is an excellent tennis player, and he has been a staple within the top 10 since 2019, however he has only once been able to achieve greatness when the lights have been the brightest.

Medvedev holds a 10-20 record in his career against top three players. Now, top three players are not supposed to be easy to beat. However, as someone who has spent the better part of his career in the top five, you would like to see better than a 33% win rate against the top players.

For the majority of the past two decades, there have only really been three players in the sport at any given time who are looked at as legitimate contenders when it comes to Grand Slams. Even with a Grand Slam victory under his belt, Medvedev is on the outside looking in as Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic now compete for the most prestigious trophies this sport has to offer.

Sinner – Medvedev Pick

Sinner is rightfully priced as a -465 favorite in this quarterfinal matchup, and it may not even be enough. This is only Medvedev's second quarterfinal at Wimbledon in his career. Last year, he put an end to Chris Eubanks' Cinderella run, however he now must go through a far more difficult opponent in order to advance to the semis.

Despite having met 11 times in tour level matches, this is the first time Sinner and Medvedev have played on grass. Sinner has won nine straight matches on this surface, not having lost since he played Novak in the semifinals at last year's Wimbledon. Sinner has his eyes on his second Slam title of the season, and I would be astonished if Medvedev was the one to put an end to this title run.

Look for Sinner to take care of business against Medvedev on Tuesday afternoon. The spread of -5.5 games should be a good look too, but I prefer the under of 37.5 total games played. Sinner will be ripping his powerful ground strokes wing to wing and consistently hitting winners off of Medvedev's slower paced balls.

Medvedev plays to extend rallies and wear his opponents down, causing them to beat themselves much of the time. This works well against players outside of the top three, but this style has shown to be very beatable by the best players in the world. Nobody in the world has a more reliable forehand than Jannik Sinner right now, and that shot will be the perfect recipe to propel him into the semifinals with a straight sets victory over his longtime rival.

Pick: Under 37.5 games (-120 or better)

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