Jasmine Paolini vs Donna Vekic Pick | Paolini – Vekic Odds, Wimbledon Semifinal Preview

Paolini – Vekic Odds, Paolini – Vekic Preview

The breakout season continues for Jasmine Paolini, while the grass season and this Wimbledon run have been a kind of resurgence for Donna Vekic. Now the two square off for a spot in the final of the biggest tournament the sport has to offer, Wimbledon.

Here is my Paolini vs Vekic pick along with my Paolini – Vekic preview ahead of their Wimbledon semifinal match.

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Paolini Adapting Well to Grass

First round exit, first round exit and…first round exit. Those were the results at this very event for Paolini entering The Championships. Her 2024 campaign, however, has seen her breakout, winning a 1000 title for the first time, entering the top-10 for the first time, reaching a Grand Slam final for the first time (in Paris) and now she's won a match at Wimbledon for the first time (and she's won five of them).

Once seen as a ball retrieval specialist and supremely talented defender, Paolini has really balanced her game well this year, absolutely ripping the forehand when the opportunities present themselves. She's played more aggressively while not compromising the sustainability that so many who try and add power to their games lack.

She'll be a top-five player come Monday for the very first time and it's well deserved.

I'm not sure I love her at this price though. It's another stylistic contrast against Vekic, but the only time she played a huge server with the ability to put points away quickly, she trailed Madison Keys 2-5* in the third set and was on the verge of elimination before the American hurt herself too badly to finish out the match.

Is Vekic on Keys' level? No. Is she 30% less likely to beat Paolini than Keys was though? I don't think that's accurate either. Keys was over 70% to win that match at many books, with Vekic given a 40% chance. I'm not saying Paolini doesn't deserve some respect, but this is a bit much.

Vekic Using Weapons to Build Ranking During Grass Season

If there's one player who has to love this part of the calendar, it's the Croatian. Last year she made the final in Berlin at a 500 and then was out in the first week to surprise champion Marketa Vondrousova at the All England Club.

This year she's just two matches away from lifting her first Grand Slam trophy. This is already her best run at a major and she's earned it, picking up a tough first match against a powerful lefty in Xiyu Wang and then having to deal with Dayana Yastremska, Paula Badosa and the free-swinging surprise of the tournament Lulu Sun in the quarters.

What's more impressive is that she's doing it off a long week in Germany and her backhand has held up against a few lefties along the way.

She won't have the advantage when it comes to defending or movement, but I also don't think it's debatable that she has the upper hand in terms of her serve and natural power from the baseline.

Paolini – Vekic Pick

It should be obvious by now that I'm going to be backing Vekic with a small staking here. I think this is a very close match between two in form players.

Yes, Paolini has been unreal this year and is the much better mover. Vekic has her own edges in this match though with that serve and forehand combination. If I need to win just 40% of the time to break even in a match that I think is closer more often than not, I'm happy to take that +150 price.

Pick: Vekic ML – 0.5u (+150 via bet365)