Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Wimbledon Semifinal Preview: Musetti – Djokovic Pick

Musetti vs Djokovic Odds, Musetti – Djokovic Picks

Against all odds, Novak Djokovic has walked into the All England Club on surgically-repaired knee and reached yet another Wimbledon quarterfinal. It's hard to say he's been tested much, but the fact remains that the greatest player in the history of the game is now two wins away from his eighth Wimbledon title.

You might say, though, that the odds were never in Lorenzo Musetti's favor either. Few expected much out of the Italian here given his lack of quality on a grass court in the past few years, yet he's battled through five difficult matches to reach this stage. Now, he'll have yet another chance to exact revenge over Djokovic, who has topped him five times in six meetings.

Will lightning strike twice here for Musetti, who just pushed Djokovic to five sets at last month's French Open? Let's get further into the Wimbledon semifinal below.

Here is my Musetti vs Djokovic preview along with my Musetti – Djokovic pick.

Lorenzo Musetti

It's not as if the Italian has a bad game for grass, but with a shaky topspin forehand and erratic serving, you certainly wouldn't put him in the same class as fellow countrymen Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini. He exhibits strong net play and can finish rallies with his one-handed backhand, but historically he has struggled on fast courts, going 43-41 across all levels on outdoor hardcourts in his career and 40-35 indoors.

That's translated to grass as well, where Musetti went two seasons without a win prior to picking up six in nine matches last year. He didn't beat the best players in the world, but it seemed to be enough to fuel a run this year to the semifinals of Stuttgart and the final at Queen's Club.

Here at Wimbledon, he's won five matches — but has struggled in every one of them. He dropped the first set he played at the championships to Constant Lestienne, fell behind two sets to one against Luciano Darderi, and then played two four-set matches prior to his thrilling win in five over Taylor Fritz.

He's surely exhausted by this point, and other than the win over Fritz he certainly would be disappointed to have wasted so much energy against opponents that can't match his talent.

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Novak Djokovic

We've harped on this for two weeks now, and it hasn't seemed to matter, but it bears repeating that Djokovic underwent surgery on a torn meniscus just three weeks before Wimbledon began. Despite that, he's dropped just two sets at this year's tournament and had the benefit of some extra rest when he received a walkover against Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinal stage.

He's also been fortunate to play a complement of players that haven't tested his movement much at all. Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin both gave away plenty of points attempting to collect winners and Holger Rune put forth an error-fest in the fourth round, playing an utterly disappointing level.

The matchup with de Minaur seemed as if it would finally put Djokovic's knee to the test, but we were deprived of that popcorn match. Now, he'll hope to rest on his 5-1 career record over Musetti and the Italian's knack for bailing his opponents out with poor shots from the back of the court.

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Musetti – Djokovic Pick

These two have something of a storied rivalry, with Musetti taking a two sets-to-love lead in their first encounter at the 2021 French Open. He would go on to win just one game across the next two and a half sets before retiring, then lose his next two matches against Djokovic in very short order.

Stepping back onto clay, the Italian defeated Djokovic at Monte Carlo last year, played him rather close at this year's running and then took a two sets-to-one lead at the French Open before once again folding to the greatest of all time.

It's pretty apparent that Musetti prefers to play on clay, so it's no surprise that the only times he's managed to play Djokovic remotely close have been on that surface. He's won just nine games in four sets against Djokovic on hardcourts, and now he'll step to him on a surface he's still rather unfamiliar with.

That's generally not what you want to hear when you're facing the seven-time Wimbledon champion, who has lost just four matches on grass since 2013. I'm not entirely sold on Djokovic being at full health, but I'm even less convinced that Musetti is strong enough on grass to make this one interesting. If he drops the first set, fatigue should set in and deliver us a one-sided affair.

Pick: Under 34.5 Games (-105 via DraftKings)