Wednesday Wimbledon Odds & Predictions | Bautista Agut-Sonego, Nakashima-Thompson
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Brandon
We have more previews from the men's draw at Wimbledon, so let's jump into another pair of second round matches from the All England Club!
Here are my bets for Roberto Bautista Agut vs Lorenzo Sonego and Brandon Nakashima vs Jordan Thompson in my Wednesday Wimbledon predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wednesday Wimbledon Odds & Predictions
Roberto Bautista Agut (-163) vs Lorenzo Sonego (+136)
8:05 a.m. ET
This is a great matchup for the veteran from Spain on several fronts. First and foremost, as poorly as he started his 2024 campaign, he's started to find more consistent wins of late, even if it's because he's had to go through the qualifying draw at some of the bigger events he's entered.
Sonego, on the other hand, has been inconsistent on the court all year and it's led to him making just one quarterfinal all season – at a Challenger event in Turin back in May. All this is to say that Bautista Agut may not be what he was five years ago, but he's not even entering this match at a form disadvantage.
He's actually had the better grass court season of the two and was much more convincing in the opening round.
In the actual on-court matchup, I'm happy to back Bautista Agut as well. He has far more rally tolerance, is the much better returner and has a massive edge in any backhand to backhand exchanges.
He can neutralize some of the Italian's strengths too, which happen to be his serve and willingness to come to net. That superior return game and his ability to hit to the outer thirds with his passing shots should be able to propel him past an erratic Sonego.
Picks: Bautista Agut ML (-163 via bet365) | Bautista Agut -1.5 sets (+117 via BetRivers)
Brandon Nakashima (-150) vs Jordan Thompson (+128)
6 a.m. ET
This is a fun match between two players that prefer quicker courts and can string together holds of serve, but aren't quite at the top of the game and their games from the baseline can be pushed around at times by players with better weapons.
In a matchup like that, I tend to side with the 22-year-old Californian, who is having a bit of a resurgent year after being lost in the wilderness in 2023, and the Wimbledon odds are undervaluing him.
His break point conversion rate led to him having a putrid break rate and that, in turn, saw him nosedive outside of the world's top 100.
A successful stint on the Challenger circuit to start the year and a recent semifinal in Stuttgart have helped propel him back to 65th in the world and to within 25 spots of his career high ranking.
Thompson had a strong start to 2024 himself, but his spring was tumultuous before he managed to reel off a few wins and make the semis at Queen's Club a few weeks back.
I'm going to side with Nakashima in a rematch of last year's Wimbledon battle that saw the American lose in a deciding set. For starters, Nakashima is playing better tennis now than he was this time last season. Secondly, his struggles in 2024 have tended to come against players that hit big balls from the baseline and can push him around and simply take time away.
Think Jakub Mensik (x2), Leandro Riedi (x2), Hubert Hurkacz, Ben Shelton and Jack Draper. Sensing a pattern?
Thompson may have a big serve and will throw in the serve-and-volley, but from the baseline Nakashima should find himself with a bit more time to operate.
Pick: Nakashima ML (-150 via bet365)
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