Wednesday Wimbledon Predictions | Harris-Shelton, Sinner-Berrettini
Photo by Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Matteo Berrettini
We're set to move on to the second round of Wimbledon on Wednesday after some of the lingering first-round encounters are finished. The loaded slate should bring us a ton of very watchable matches as the morning wears on.
I'll be holding my nose as I back one of my least favorite players at a number that's too good to pass up before previewing the main event of the day on Centre Court.
Here are my expert Wimbledon betting picks for Harris – Shelton and Sinner – Berrettini.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wednesday Wimbledon Predictions
Lloyd Harris (+120) vs Ben Shelton (-150)
10 a.m. ET
It is with a heavy heart that I announce Lloyd Harris is at it again. Handicapping is all about putting your biases aside and backing numbers even if they're attached to players you downright hate, and that's what I'm prepared to do on Wednesday.
No, I do not enjoy watching Harris play the game of tennis, and yes, I do quite enjoy watching Ben Shelton take the court. This simply isn't a fair line to the South African, however, he's played considerably more on grass than his opponent, who is still trying to figure out how to best utilize the surface.
Harris may be ranked outside the top 100 at the moment, but it doesn't mean the former World No. 31 hasn't done a lot of winning. In fact, he's not only 30-13 on the year, thanks to a large collection of wins on the ATP Challenger tour, but he's also 12-2 on turf with a title in a pretty stacked Surbiton draw and a good run through qualifying to make the Wimbledon draw.
We've seen some better tennis this season out of Harris, and now that he's stepping onto a surface which should really suit his massive serve, I think we will see his ranking rise after this week.
Shelton's return of serve is still very much a question as evidenced by his nail-biter against Flavio Cobolli in the first round. Now, the task will get much tougher against one of the biggest hitters in the draw. He's still not entirely sure how to best play grass, either, with a 4-6 record on the surface through two seasons. The serve, volleying and slicing is all there for Shelton, but he's got some work to do when it comes to best harnessing these skills to win matches on a very unique surface that he's played very little on.
I like the experience of Harris to shine through here, and not expecting Shelton to be able to make many in-roads on his serve.
Pick: Harris ML (+122 via FanDuel)
Jannik Sinner (-525) vs Matteo Berrettini (+390)
12:30 p.m. ET
Jannik Sinner may be the decisive favorite to win Wimbledon, but he's going to be in trouble very early on at this year's championships when he faces former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the second round on Wednesday.
I have absolutely no issues with Sinner's pricing in the futures market — in fact, I not only think he will win the tournament, but think he should probably be a larger favorite. With that said, it'd be foolish to look past this match with one of the kings of grass tennis over the last five years.
The former World No. 6's career may have been halted in its tracks by a slew of injuries in the past few seasons, but a lack of form hasn't prevented him from winning on his favorite surface. He notably returned from a three-month injury layoff in 2022 to win back-to-back titles on the grass, only to contract COVID-19 and miss Wimbledon. Last season, he failed to win his first match back from injury after two months off but still managed to make it through a tough draw including Lorenzo Sonego, Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur before eventually falling in four sets to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz.
The lack of form shouldn't be a huge cause for concern. His massive serve and forehand are almost impossible to stop on grass, and his backhand — the glaring weakness in his game — becomes something of an advantage on this surface given he loves to slice it.
This is a man who is 40-7 on grass since 2018 with three of those losses coming to Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Because of this, I'm going to believe in him to give Sinner a big run for his money despite the fact that he's lost just three matches this season, all of which have come on slow courts.
The two have only met once, which came in a relatively close match in Toronto a couple of seasons ago, and using that — and his confidence on grass — I don't think Berrettini will fear Sinner here. Hell, he may even win this one.
Pick: Berrettini +4.5 Games (+110)
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