Wimbledon Odds, Predictions | Expert Picks for Putintseva – Kerber, Swiatek – Kenin
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Sofia Kenin.
The first round of Wimbledon continues on and there are some incredible matches on deck for Tuesday!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups — Putintseva – Kerber and Swiatek – Kenin.
Read on for my Wimbledon predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Wimbledon Odds & Predictions
Yulia Putintseva (-205) vs Angelique Kerber (+168)
10 a.m. ET
Yulia Putintseva had a dream start to the grass season, dropping just one set on her way to the Birmingham title. While Putintseva is just 17-22 for her career on grass, she's playing well regardless of surface this season, with a 28-15 record in 2024.
Putintseva seemed to have a revelation in Birmingham, understanding better both how to move and maintain her rally tolerance on the surface. This allowed the Kazakh to implement her physical game, as the 29-year old's defensive and counterpunching abilities have improved by leaps and bounds on grass. Not to mention that Putintseva already had the variety in her bag to be successful on the surface.
So, while Putintseva doesn't have overwhelming power, she can maintain rallies on the surface better than most others and she plays effective offense with her forehand, at times.
Angelique Kerber, on the other hand, has been a mess this grass season. The 2018 Wimbledon champion has been far from her best on the surface, going 0-2 so far this year, a far cry from her 87-34 professional-record on the grass.
However, when it comes to Kerber, she still is far from her best after returning from maternity leave and so past accolades feel hollow in terms of the current tennis landscape. The 36-year old veteran hits a flatter ball from both wings and spreads the court well. And, at her best, despite the lack of heavy topspin, she is still able to hit into precise targets.
But nowadays, Kerber is a bit slower on her feet, less precise with her groundstrokes and looks more underpowered than she used to be.
And this is a bad scenario against Putintseva's skill set. Putintseva has the rally tolerance to defend against Kerber's flatter groundstrokes and wait for the German to overhit from the baseline. She has the return to get a bunch of balls back into play and not give away much for free. And she has the control over her shots to drag Kerber around the court and expose her declining movement.
In sum, Putintseva should make Kerber feel her age in this match.
Pick: Putintseva -3.5 games (-116 via FanDuel)
Iga Swiatek (-2500) vs Sofia Kenin (+1100)
11:30 a.m. ET
Iga Swiatek hasn't played since winning the Roland Garros (clay) title, but while the World No. 1 isn't elite on grass, she still owns a 16-7 professional-record on the surface, having made the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last season.
Swiatek is such a complete player. She has a well-placed serve, a heavy powerful forehand, a flatter-yet-effective backhand and the Pole's tennis IQ is off of the charts. With that said, Swiatek's game is certainly less potent on grass. She doesn't move quite as well and the weird bounces on grass lead to the 23-year old's rally tolerance being lower than on other surfaces. In addition, Swiatek's forehand, her signature shot, loses some of its potency on grass, as topspin groundstrokes are less successful on the surface.
That's not to say that Swiatek isn't a huge threat on grass, she's just not as big of a threat.
Sofia Kenin, a major champion in her own right, is just 1-2 on grass this year. She does have a strong 22-13 record on grass for her career, though, and pulled off a stunner last season in the first round of Wimbledon, taking out Coco Gauff.
Kenin's flatter groundstrokes work well on grass, as the American effectively combines pace and placement in rallies. The 25-year old also understands how to move on grass, allowing her to defend and counterpunch successfully, along with spreading the court effectively.
Swiatek has the best shot on the court in her forehand, but Kenin's defense and ability to turn points around on offense should allow her to extend rallies and test Swiatek's rally tolerance on the surface. This is particularly the case at this stage of the tournament, with fresh, slick grass alongside an undercooked (on grass) Swiatek.
Combine that with Kenin's ability to hit low, skidding groundstrokes into small targets and her mental toughness in playing big matches and this is not nearly as straightforward as it initially seems.
While Swiatek is the deserved favorite, the American should cover the spread.
Pick: Kenin +6.5 games (-102 via FanDuel)
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