Wimbledon Odds, Predictions & Picks: Back Sabalenka & Rybakina, Fade Swiatek

Wimbledon has arrived and players are heading to London with dreams of lifting the Venus Rosewater Dish!

2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova is in the mix, but given she has just a 15-13 career-record on grass, it's hard to fully trust the Czech.

So, how should you consider outright selections for this year's Wimbledon? Who is a player to avoid betting on?

Read on for my Wimbledon predictions as I analyze the Wimbledon odds and deliver my picks.

Note: All odds came from FanDuel. The full women’s draw can be found here. Check out our latest FanDuel promo code to get the most out of your tennis betting.

The must-have app for sports bettors

The best betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Wimbledon Odds & Predictions 

Outright: Aryna Sabalenka (+300)

While No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka enters Wimbledon having retired from her last match with a shoulder ailment, retirements in the lead-up to a major are almost always precautionary and it's better that the 26-year old didn't burn herself out.

The Belarusian has a 34-19 professional-mark on grass, having come a set from the final against Ons Jabeur in London last season.

Sabalenka's game suits grass very well. She has a big first serve that gets her plenty of free points. In fact, Sabalenka has tied for the fifth-most aces and the fifth-highest percentage of service points won on the WTA Tour this year.

Sabalenka follows up her serve with massive groundstrokes from both wings. With one swing of the racquet, she can turn neutral-ball rallies in her favor.

And, as the years have gone on, Sabalenka has developed better patience on court, where she will construct points until she has the right shot to blast a winner. The Belarusian also understands when to move forward.

No, her draw isn't the easiest, with a potential Donna Vekic matchup in the second round (2-6 in the head to head) and a possible showdown with the mercurial, hard-hitting Dayana Yastremska in the third round. However, Vekic is around .500 this season and Yastremska can lose to anyone on her day.

Ultimately, on a quick, power-based surface, Sabalenka is the most dependable player in the draw who has had success on the surface before and whose game fits it well.

Outright: Elena Rybakina (+600)

No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina was sick, which prevented her from competing at her best in Berlin, but as I said with Sabalenka, these types of retirements are of little concern and actually, at times, can be beneficial for the player's long-term chances.

Rybakina won this event in 2022 and has an impressive 28-10 record on grass for her career. In 2023, Rybakina made the quarterfinals, but lost to Ons Jabeur in three sets.

Rybakina's game is tailor-made for the grass. She has a massive first serve, with the 25-year old having the most aces on the WTA Tour this season.

The Kazakh's forehand is also a huge weapon, allowing her to dictate baseline play from this wing. Like Sabalenka, Rybakina can take the racquet out of her opponents' hands with one swing of the racquet. She punishes anything short in the court and hits with precision into small targets.

It's just so difficult to move Rybakina from the baseline, as her court positioning is strong.

Rybakina got drawn in the same half as Swiatek, which is a major boost for the Kazakh, as she is comfortable against the Pole, leading the head to head 4-2, while she is 0-1 against Gauff. Not to mention that Sabalenka, who leads the head to head 6-3 over Rybakina, is on the other half of the draw as well.

There are some potential pitfalls such as a potential matchup against the tricky Laura Siegemund in the second round or Eastbourne finalist Leylah Fernandez in the third round. However, when Rybakina is at her best, playing her brand of power tennis, only the elite players in the sport can keep up.

Outright: Madison Keys (+2100)

No. 12 seed Madison Keys, a year after winning the Eastbourne (grass) title, began her 2024 grass-court campaign at the same tournament, although she fell 3-6, 6-3, 3-6 to Leylah Fernandez in this year's semifinals.

Keys has an incredible 47-17 professional-record on the surface, having made the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last season. In that quarterfinal match, the American fell 2-6, 4-6 to Sabalenka.

She is yet another player with extreme power and positive experience on the grass. Keys' first serve is terrific and she hits big groundstrokes from both wings. Keys can overwhelm her opponents with the sheer pace of her groundstrokes and turn points in her favor quickly.

While movement is not a strength for Keys, she understands how to move on the grass and how to deal with the weird bounces that playing on the surface provides.

Her draw is fairly manageable, with no real grass-court competition until a potential third-round showdown against a vulnerable Marta Kostyuk, who is 0-2 on grass in 2024.

Keys also got lucky with her prospective fourth-round matchup against No. 7 seed Jasmine Paolini, who is just 8-14 on grass for her career. And, against Gauff in the quarterfinals, it would be possible for Keys to overpower her, effectively rushing her forehand.

While Keys might not be a top contender for the title, at +2100 there is value on the American.

Leave: Iga Swiatek (+460)

Iga Swiatek, this year's Roland Garros champion, is an incredible clay-court player. However, on grass her skill-set is neutered to an extent.

Swiatek does have a 16-7 record on grass as a professional, which is quite good, but it doesn't look as strong in comparison to her 132-17 clay record and 174-45 mark on hard courts. Swiatek is less experienced on the surface and less successful.

She's shakier on grass, relatively-speaking, because topspin is less effective on grass, which somewhat minimizes her signature, heavy forehand. In addition, the Pole's consistency and footwork are less impressive on grass, as she's less comfortable moving and rallying on the surface.

And Swiatek is at her most vulnerable when opponents are able to rush her, particularly on her forehand wing. On a slick, quick surface like the grass, the 23-year old is most vulnerable to being rushed and overpowered.

In fact, Svitolina overpowered Swiatek last season in the Wimbledon quarterfinals last season.

Swiatek is vulnerable on grass against plenty of players, but if she has to face the hard-hitting Caroline Garcia or Jelena Ostapenko in the round of 16, or Rybakina in the semifinals, then she's in massive trouble.

Trust Swiatek on clay and slower hard courts, but not on the grass.