WNBA Commissioner’s Cup: Lynx-Liberty Picks, Odds (Tuesday, June 25)
Pictured: Kayla McBride of the Minnesota Lynx and Sabrina Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty for Action Network’s odds, pick, and prediction for the 2024 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup.
Tuesday evening will see the Minnesota Lynx battle the New York Liberty in a highly anticipated WNBA game for the Commissioner’s Cup championship. The point spread for this game is set at -5 for the Liberty, meaning they are favored to win by 5 points.
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.
Lynx vs. Liberty Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | -218 |
Tuesday evening will see the Minnesota Lynx battle the New York Liberty for the Commissioner's Cup championship. Two of the top teams in the entire league, the Lynx are representing the Western Conference and the Liberty the Eastern Conference. The teams enter the game with the two longest current winning streaks in the WNBA, with the Liberty having won three straight and the Lynx six.
Let's dig into the WNBA odds and make a Lynx vs. Liberty pick.
Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx enter this game as the hottest team in the league, having won their last six matchups. Among those six are wins over the Phoenix Mercury, Atlanta Dream, Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm, so it's been a pretty impressive stretch of games for the West's top team. There is also a mid-May 84-67 win over the Liberty in Minnesota.
Led by Napheesa Collier's 20.9 points per game, the Lynx average 84.5 points. Collier tops the team at 10.4 rebounds per game while also averaging 3.5 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.4 blocks. She's coming off a 23-point, 14-rebound performance against the Mercury.
Collier's play is of course key to the Lynx's chances, but the team has been able to win without big scoring nights from her in large part thanks to the 3-point shot. Indeed, much of their damage is done behind the arc, where the Lynx's average of 10 makes per game is the second highest in the league. They also shoot the 3 at nearly 40%, which paces all teams. Their 24 assists per game also lead the league.
This all happens with the Lynx playing at the league's second-slowest offensive pace.
It works because guard Kayla McBride has been terrific from the outside. Averaging seven 3-point attempts per game, the veteran is capable of lighting up the scoreboard. In a Commissioner's Cup win over Seattle, she made seven 3s, and a game before that — against Phoenix — she connected on eight attempts. She can be a bit streaky, though, having made just one of seven attempts most recently against the Mercury.
The Lynx have two more scorers in double figures, with Alanna Smith averaging 12 points and Courtney Williams scoring 10.4. The Lynx do not have the flashiest lineup in the league, but what they do have combines to create the league's No. 3 team in Offensive Rating while besting all teams in Defensive Rating and overall Net Rating. They do not have the best record in the league, but the Lynx — who are tied with the Liberty and Sun with just three losses — have the best point differential of any team at +10.7.
New York Liberty
While this is Minnesota's first time playing for the Commissioner's Cup title, the Liberty are in familiar territory. Having won last year's Cup by beating the Aces in Las Vegas, the veteran team that played for the WNBA title last season knows what to expect. New York is coming into the matchup on a three-game winning streak and has lost just three games all season, though one of those came at the hands of the Lynx back in May.
Save for a close loss in Phoenix last week, the Liberty have not only been winning games but winning them comfortably. Their recent streak features victories of 21, 10 and 13 points, and their overall point differential of +9.7 is second only to the Lynx.
None of this is a surprise. The runner-up for the WNBA title last season returned the majority of its star-studded roster, with the team's best players continuing to play at a high level. Breanna Stewart is very much at the top of her game, with her 19.7 points per game leading the way. She's trailed by Sabrina Ionescu, who is scoring 19.3, and Jonquel Jones, who is averaging 16.8. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is the team's only other player averaging double figures, and she's at 12.1.
The Liberty have five players averaging at least three assists per game, with Ionescu's 6.7 at the top. Guard Courtney Vandersloot, who is averaging 5.3 assists per game, returned to the team over the weekend following the death of her mother but has not played since June 4.
The result of all that firepower is the league's No. 1 Offensive Rating with the best Effective Field Goal Percentage as well as True Shooting Percentage, and the No. 2 overall Net Rating. New York is a good defensive team for sure, but it most often wins with offense. A win Tuesday would make the Liberty the first back-to-back champions in the Cup's history.
Lynx vs. Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Liberty are -5 with a -218 moneyline, while the Lynx are listed at +180 on the moneyline. Boiling it down, the Liberty are expected to win but not so much that this game should be a blowout either way. Might this be a WNBA Finals preview? Perhaps, but for now the teams are playing for a nice payday, for charity and of course for the in-season title. Playing as well as anyone in the league over the last month, the Lynx are certainly a threat to win their first Cup.
Teams have had a tough time slowing down the Liberty, but the Lynx have already proven capable of doing so with an 84-67 win earlier this season. Expecting Minnesota to win another game against what might be the league's best team, on the road and in a championship game, is probably a bit much to ask. But the Lynx's defense should keep this game low scoring and close until the end.
Pick: Under 162.5
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