Mercury vs Fever Picks, Odds | WNBA Predictions (Friday, July 12)

Friday, July 12

7:30 p.m. ET

ION

Mercury Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
-2.5 -110	173 -109o/-111u	-143

Fever Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
+2.5 -110	173 -109o/-111u	+120

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The Fever pulled out a gutsy five point win over the New York Liberty earlier this week and then turned around and lost to the Mystics in the next outing. Now, Indiana hosts the Phoenix Mercury who are fresh off a 100-84 win over the Wings on Wednesday. Last time these teams played on June 30th, the Mercury lost 88-82 and failed to cover as 8 point favorites.

As the Indiana Fever gear up for another matchup against the Phoenix Mercury as we look into the Mercury vs Fever odds and make a WNBA pick and prediction in our betting preview for Friday, July 12.

Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix has lost ten games this season and eight of those losses were against top five teams. In this matchup, the Mercury are the better team ranking above the Fever in both offensive and defensive rating. However, they have been a high variance team, which has affected the spreads we have seen for them. Now, we’re seeing them as only 2.5 point road favorites in this spot after being 8 point home favorites over the Fever less than two weeks ago.

Phoenix is 4th in the league in points per 100 possessions and should be able to outscore the Fever to cover this spread. Currently, they have covered three straight and are now 14-8 ATS overall this season.

Last time vs the Fever, Phoenix’s leading scorer, Kahleah Copper, shot just 20% overall and 16.7% from deep for a total of seven points. That performance is an outlier in an otherwise stellar season. She should be back to true form this time around, especially with Diana Taurasi set to miss another game.

With Taurasi out, Natasha Cloud will get more opportunities to score, so I’ll take her over 13.5 points. In the past three games that Taurasi missed, Cloud scored 18, 31, and 14.

Indiana Fever

Despite the Mercury’s edge in this matchup, the Fever have surprisingly won the last three matchups vs the Mercury dating back to last August. The last four head to head matchups have been under, which is not shocking given we typically see higher totals for these two teams. The Fever rank 7th in possessions per 40 minutes and points per 100 possessions, and are averaging 80.7 points per game, so I’ll take the under at 173.5

That said, Phoenix does give up a lot of boards, so I’ll also be on Aliyah Boston going over her points and rebounds set at 22.5. She has easily cleared this number in 8 of her last 10 games, and in her most recent game she only played 21 minutes due to foul trouble.

Mercury vs. Fever

Betting Pick & Prediction

Phoenix is the better team and this line seems improperly priced, so I’ll lay the points with the Mercury and expect them to outpace the Fever. Even with both sides lacking a strong defensive identity, I still like the total going under 173.5.

Pick: Mercury -2.5 | Under 173.5 (BetMGM) | Natasha Cloud Over 13.5 pts -125 (DraftKings) | Aliyah Boston Over 22.5 Points and Rebounds -118 (FanDuel)

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