Storm vs Lynx: WNBA Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction (Friday, May 17)

Friday, May 17

9:30 p.m. ET

ION

Storm Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 -112	163.5 -110 / -110	-124

Lynx Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -108	163.5 -110 / -110	+102

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The Storm and Lynx will face off for the second time in as many games, with Minnesota getting set for its home opener. Seattle will be out for revenge after suffering an 83-70 loss as a 7.5-point home favorite.

It's worth noting that the Storm opened as a 10-point favorite in the loss before being bet down in the market. This time, Seattle opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but that number is down to -1.5 at some sportsbooks.

Thus, despite opening the season with one of the higher win totals at 24.5, the market appears to be somewhat bearish on this Storm team in the early stages.

While this rematch tends to be an excellent spot to back the loser of the first game, there were enough warning signs to warrant some concern about Seattle moving forward.

Let's dive into this Storm vs Lynx game.

The must-have app for WNBA bettors

The best WNBA betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Seattle Storm

One thing that stood out about Seattle in the first meeting was its performance behind the perimeter. The Storm shot just 11.1% from beyond the arc, but even more puzzling was that it made only nine attempts.

It's improbable to win a basketball game while attempting only nine 3-pointers in this modern era. Last season, the Storm ranked third in both attempts (24.2) and field goals (8.5) per game from the perimeter.

The problem is Seattle doesn't have the same roster as guards Kia Nurse (Sparks) and Ivana Dojkic (Liberty), who have moved on to different teams. Nurse shot 35% from the perimeter in 2023, while Dojkic was even better at 41.8%.

This year, the Storm added Skylar Diggins-Smith and Victoria Vivians to its backcourt, but both players are coming off seasons where they shot under 30% from the perimeter.

Another problem for Seattle is that its offense can get a bit stagnant. It ranked last in assists last season (17.7) and only managed 14 in the season opener.

While I don't think the Storm can be much worse shooting from the perimeter, it needs to do a better job of sharing the basketball to be considered one of the league's top teams.

Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota's 3-point shooting was the difference in the game, as it outscored Seattle 21-3 from the perimeter. Although the Lynx shot below 30% in its 3-point attempts, there was a clear purpose in the team's style of play.

This Lynx roster has a good balance of frontcourt players who can stretch the floor, and its floor spacing allows the team to quickly shift the ball to find an open player.

Alanna Smith could be a breakout star after finally getting an opportunity to start with Chicago last season. The six-year veteran posted a career-high, scoring 22 points in the game.

Smith should pair nicely with Napheesa Collier in the frontcourt, who is coming off an MVP-caliber season.

Collier is the heart and soul of this Lynx organization she's been a part of since Minnesota selected her with the sixth pick in the 2019 WNBA Draft.

There's also a real tenacity in the backcourt with the additions of Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman. Both players combined for seven steals against Seattle.

Don't expect to find a whole lot of razzle-dazzle with this team. They're simply going to outwork their opponents and do the little things to win basketball games.

Storm vs. Lynx

Betting Pick & Prediction

While I don't want to overreact completely after one game, I saw enough to give me pause on backing the Storm in this rematch.

As a result, I prefer to pivot to the player props market to find our best bets in this contest.

Ezi Magbegor over 7.5 rebounds (-120 via FanDuel)

You always have to be conscious of players who seem ready to take that next step, and Magbegor undoubtedly falls into that category. She averaged a career-best 8.1 rebounds in her fourth season last year, and she hasn't even reached her peak, considering she's just 24-years old.

With her rebounding prop at 7.5, we won't get too many more opportunities in this price range, so this over is essentially an autoplay, given its value.

Skylar Diggins-Smith under 16.5 points (-115 via DraftKings)

It could take a bit longer for Diggins-Smith to settle in this season since she missed all of last year due to the birth of her second child. And if that's not enough, she's also playing with entirely new teammates after spending her previous three seasons with the Phoenix Mercury.

Moreover, given her four turnovers in the first meeting, the Lynx backcourt will likely continue to hound Diggins-Smith.

Seattle has capable scorers like Jewell Loyd and Nneka Ogwumike, who can carry the load while Diggins-Smith works her way into the team. Given the circumstances, a scoring prop of 16.5 points feels too steep in her second game back.

Alanna Smith over 12.5 points (-130 via DraftKings)

I'm willing to wager that Smith's 22-point performance in the opener wasn't a fluke. After all, she's finally an everyday starter in this league after coming off the bench for her first four years. Let's not forget that Smith was a first-round pick (eighth overall) out of Stanford, so there's some talent here.

She can also operate on the perimeter, and Seattle's front court players aren't as nimble to guard that far out. Look for the Lynx to continue to exploit that matchup advantage in front of their home crowd.

Pick(s): Ezi Magbegor over 7.5 rebounds | Skylar Diggins-Smith under 16.5 points | Alanna Smith over 12.5 points