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Weekly Game Probabilities - Week 4
Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Please remember that the projected scores are not to be taken terribly seriously. Do not bet the mortgage on them as they are not intended to graded against the spread. They are simply a "maximum-plausibility" estimate given respective team scoring tendencies.
SOE: Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly Game Probabilities: A New Home
For now the score predictions are simply maximum-plausibility estimates. (Yes, I just made that term up.) Predicting an actual score for each game is statistically boring. With few exceptions, a statistically sound estimate would be 24-20 or 27-21 for every game, so I've added some of the human element to the score predictions. The bottom line is that readers should focus on the probabilities and don't bet the mortgage on the scores.
The game probabilities will be matched up against the picks of Will Lietch, one of the cornerstone writers at SOE. The idea is to create a friendly competition between man and machine.
The game probabilities had a great run at the New York Times--5 years. But there are only so many thought-provoking or counter-intuitive lessons on probabilities and predictions that can be squeezed out of a week of NFL games. But AFA will continue working with the Times on various projects as the season unfolds.
Here's the link to the probabilities for week one. For those keeping score at home, I had the Seahawks at 66% to win last night.
Super Bowl XLVIII Game Probability
The game probability for Super Bowl XLVIII is now available at the New York Times. This week I take a look at why the efficiency model may differ from some other models and the public consensus.
...Some other analytical models, along with the consensus odds, give Denver a small advantage. I suspect the disagreement can be attributed to two factors. First, I doubt the strength-of-schedule effect is fully appreciated by wider audiences. And second, recent outcomes are often overweighted both by quantitative models (by design) and by fans and analysts (often unwittingly). Focusing on recent games would tend to favor Denver, which has appeared to be winning in easier fashion lately...
Game Probabilities - Conference Round
Game probabilities for the conference round are available at the New York Times. This week I explain why the Patriots' recent success running the ball is not so recent at all.
But to followers of advanced metrics, that is far from a surprise, as the Patriots have been mercilessly efficient on the ground for the past several years. Using success rate to measure running effectiveness provides a much more accurate picture of how the Patriots win with the run than traditional measures like total yards or even yards per carry...
...What the Patriots have figured out is how to use the running game effectively. They do not use it as a bludgeon on most first and second downs, as other teams do...
...Running backs like Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson who are known for their occasional 80-yard breakaway touchdowns might be first-round draft picks in your fantasy league, but in the real world, I’ll take the Patriots’ running game any day.
Game Probabilities - Division Round
Game probabilities for the division round are available at the New York Times. This week I take a look at the role of luck in the composition of the playoff field.
...the luckiest may be the Indianapolis Colts. Not only did they survive a 28-point second-half deficit in the wild-card round, but they were also the team that most overperformed statistical expectations in the regular season.
Based on the core efficiencies of passing, running, turnovers and penalties, plus the Colts’ strength of schedule, my efficiency model expected them to have between seven and eight wins. But they finished with 11, which was 3.2 more than expected.
All but 2 of the 12 playoff teams were above average in terms of beating their statistical expectations, and all but one of the surviving eight beat expectations. Although you may at first think this pattern points to an obvious flaw in the efficiency model, it turns out this is exactly what the field of statistics predicts...
Game Probabilities - Wildcard Round
Game probabilities for the wildcard round are available at the New York Times. This week I take a look at the matchup between KC and IND.
When the Colts host the Chiefs on Saturday in the first of this weekend’s four wild-card games, each team will feel as if it is looking into the mirror. The two teams are nearly statistically identical and tend to play disciplined, low-risk, ball-control football while letting their opponents make mistakes...
The two opponents are even more similar on defense. Kansas City’s and Indianapolis’s net yards per pass attempt allowed are 6.4 and 6.2, both close to the average of 6.2. They both allow 4.5 yards per carry, a bit more than the league average of 4.1. Both teams have grabbed more than their share of interceptions, as the Chiefs intercept the ball on 3.3 percent of all pass plays and the Colts on 2.8 percent...
Game Probabilities - Week 17
Game probabilities for week 17 are available at the New York Times. This week I take a look at the narratives surrounding Tony Romo.
...However, the part of the story line that’s true is that Romo is a boom-and-bust performer. He can both lead his team to a dramatic victory, as he did last week in Washington, or make bone-headed plays to let victory slip from his team’s hands, as he did the week before in Green Bay.
Of all the quarterbacks with over a full season worth of pass attempts since 1999, Romo ranks 15th out of 152 qualified players in the game-by-game variance of WPA, which measures how far apart the peaks and valleys in a statistic tend to be...
Week 16 Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 16 are available at the New York Times. This week I take a look at how to measure the playoff impact of individual games for both conferences.
...As the playoff field narrows with two games remaining, we can use what’s known as a Monte Carlo simulation to play out the remainder of the season several thousand times, weighting the game outcomes according to the game probabilities produced by the Advanced NFL Stats efficiency model...
Game Probabilities - Week 15
Game probabilities for week 15 are available at the New York Times. This week I note the high playoff leverage of the NE-MIA game.
Game Probabilities - Week 14
Game probabilities for week 14 are available at the New York Times. This week I look at the Kansas City Chief's unusual season.
...The efficiency model never thought the Chiefs were a dominant contender. At their peak after Week 7, they were ranked seventh over all. Since then, they’ve slipped to 22nd.
Admittedly, two of the Chiefs’ three losses came against a very good Broncos team, but the efficiency model accounts for opponent strength. In fact, despite being outplayed in their most recent loss, they rose one notch in the model’s efficiency rankings....
Game Probabilities - Week 13
Game probabilities for week 13 are available at the New York Times. This week I look at Aaron Rodgers's value to the Packers.
...The model used here to produce the game probabilities is a “parametric” model, meaning its inputs are parameters that can be varied easily. That’s obviously a good thing, as team statistics certainly vary from week to week. It’s also handy because those parameters can be manually adjusted to account for injuries and just to play what-if...
By replacing Rodgers’s numbers with Flynn’s, and holding all other factors as is, we can get a rough idea of how the game probability should change. Unsurprisingly, the numbers would now heavily favor Detroit...
Game Probabilities - Week 12
Game probabilities for week 12 are available at the New York Times. This week I look at the Jets' strange Pythagorean record.
...This season the Jets are doing their best to defy James, Pythagoras and their formulas. They have scored 183 points and allowed 268 on their way to a 5-5 record. That’s a net point difference of -85, which is second worst in the league, topping only the Jaguars. According to the Pythagorean expectation, the Jets should have about a .265 winning percentage, good for a 3-7 record or perhaps 2-8...
Game Probabilities - Week 11
Game probabilities for week 11 are available at the New York Times. This week I do a back of the envelope analysis of how likely it would be for a team like the Chiefs to finish the regular season undefeated..
...But we know N.F.L. games are not coin flips, so how good would a team have to be to have a 50/50 shot at going undefeated through 16 games? If a team were so good that it had a 90 percent chance of winning any one game, it would only have a 19 percent chance of going 16-0. In fact, a team would need a 96 percent chance of winning any one game before it had better than even odds of going undefeated. So it’s a rare thing for a reason...
Game Probabilities - Week 10
Game probabilities for week 10 are available at the New York Times. This week I take a quick look the changing of the Guard in the AFC North.
The model has not been a fan of the Ravens, even during last season prior to their playoff run to a Super Bowl victory. This season, the model says Baltimore's "true" winning percentage is 0.333, which isn't far off from their actual 0.375 mark (3-5), particularly considering they've had a slightly soft schedule. The Ravens' passing efficiency differential is -0.5 yards per pass play, which is 22nd in the league. But their biggest problem is a costly inability to run the ball. The Ravens offense is last in yards per carry, and is a distant last in run success rate...
Note: In my write-up, I mistakenly said CIN hosts Baltimore. It's actually the other way around. The game probability numbers are correct though.
Game Probabilities - Week 9
Game probabilities for week 9 are up at the New York Times. This week I take a quick look at much things have changed in New England and Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh's defense ranks 26th in the league in yards allowed per play, and its offense is struggling to run the ball. The Steelers rank 29th in the league in running Success Rate--the proportion of running plays that result in an improved scoring potential. Only the Giants, Jaguars, and Ravens rank behind the Steelers in running success...
Game Probabilities Week 8
Game probabilities for week 8 are up at the New York Times. This week I take a look at how lopsided this weekend's matchups are.
In terms of probabilities for the favorite and underdog, a game is typically about a 62-38 percentage affair. When the underdog wins almost 4 out of 10 games, it can make for an exciting Sunday afternoon. But this Sunday probably won’t be one of them...
On the other hand, when there are so many mismatches, there is bound to be a big upset. Statistically, it’s very unlikely that all those favorites will win...
Game Probabilities Week 7
Game probabilities for week 7 are up at the New York Times. This week I take a look at the Patriots Jets matchup and some surprising numbers.
A purely statistical approach is (deliberately) ignorant of things like the identity of the quarterbacks. It doesn’t know about Super Bowl rings or supermodel wives. It doesn’t know who is a rookie and who is a certainty for the Hall of Fame. It doesn’t know that Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo is out for the regular season with a chest injury.
Game Probabilities Week 6
Game probabilities for week 5 are up at the New York Times. This week I discuss the how teams with great offenses can mask the true strength of their defense.
Since the 2000 season, the 32 teams with the best offenses allowed 2.1 more Expect Points per game than the average team over the same period — a significant difference. This translates to about a 4 percent chance of winning a game when matched against a roughly equal opponent, and slightly less when matched against a lesser opponent.By the way, I gooned up the table on the post, leaving out Monday night's game. It's .57 - .43 IND over SD.
Game Probabilities Week 5
Game probabilities for week 5 are up at the New York Times. This week I discuss the preeminence of offense over defense.
Weekly Game Probabilities Are Back
Game probabilities for week 4 are up at the New York Times. With the demise the Fifth Down Blog, the probabilities are now on the NYT website proper. This week I explain why the randomness of turnovers makes the Giants-Chiefs game a closer match-up than their win-loss records suggest.
In retrospect, turnovers explain a great deal of a team’s fortunes. But prospectively, team turnover statistics don’t predict game outcomes as much as you might think. The reason behind this distinction is something called auto-correlation. Put simply, turnovers are very random. Only a small portion of a team’s past turnover rate carries forward to be predictive.
Wildcard Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for the wildcard games are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I examine the whether the Colts' are as good as their record suggests.
Weekly Game Probabilities - Week 16
Game probabilities for week 16 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I highlight one the least interesting match-ups on a schedule packed with interesting games.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 15 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I examine how some outlier teams can break the model, including this season's NE Patriots.
...Malcolm Gladwell’s book “Outliers” popularized the term in his title, but the exceptional people he featured in his best-seller were not actual outliers. If I spend five hours trying to learn to play the violin, I’ll stink. But if someone else spends 10,000 hours practicing violin, we would of course expect that person to be great. That’s entirely predictable and fits our model of practice makes perfect. A true outlier would be someone who spent only a few hours practicing, yet was still a violin prodigy.
Sometimes teams come along and break my model, and the 2012 Patriots are one of those teams...
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 14 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I revisit Sanchez's performance and his contract extension from the off-season.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 13 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week make a cursory comparison between the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 12 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I share my thoughts about the 'tired arm' theory regarding Eli Manning's recent slump.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 12 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I consider the theory that Eli Manning's mid-season swoon could be due to a "tired arm."
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 11 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I take a look at alternate estimates for the BAL-PIT game due to Roethlisberger's injury.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 10 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week the lead-in summarized my recent post on the dangers of misplaced confidence in analytic models of open, real-world systems.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Game probabilities for week 7 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I look at the the showdown between the AFC leading Ravens and Texans.
Weekly Game Probabilites
Game probabilities for week 6 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
This week I dig into the Steelers' uncharacteristic numbers this season.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. The write up is a condensed version of the Tebow analysis I just posted.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down.
I take a detailed look at the NE-NYJ match-up. The Patriots are actually a much better running team than most think, and the Jets are better at passing than they are running so far this season.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. I take a detailed look at the NYG-NE match-up. Also, there are a couple very kooky games this week. Please see my comment under the main post for a brief explanation.
Super Bowl Game Probability
The Super Bowl game probability is available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. Find out what happens to the probability when the each team's passing stats are limited to just those of their starting QBs. Plus, is the Packers' image benefiting from the recency effect?
Weekly Game Probabilities - Conference Championships
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a look at how the numbers suggest the Jets should attack the Steelers.
Weekly Game Probabilities - Divison Round
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I conduct a little experiment about our perceptions of team strength and reality.
Weekly Game Probabilities - Wildcard
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I focus on the one game where the model differs from the consensus favorite.
Game Probabilities - Week 17
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I put blame where blame is due for the prediction model's under-performing season...squarely on the shoulders of Norv Turner.
Game Probabilities - Week 16
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a closer look at pivotal showdown between the Giants and Packers. One of these two very good NFC teams won't make the playoffs this year.
Game Probabilities - Week 15
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a closer look at Jets-Steelers match-up.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a closer look at Sunday Giants-Vikings match-up.
Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a closer look at Monday night's Jets-Patriots match-up.
NYT: Weekly Game Probabilities
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also put a number on Santonio Holmes' 2010 heroics.
Game Probabilities: Week 10
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down.
Weekly Game Probabilities - Week 9
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also highlight the KC-OAK game and take a look at how coming off a bye week may give the edge to a couple teams this week.
NYT: Game Probabilities - Week 8
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also look at how the Cowboys' downgrade at quarterback might affect their chances against Jacksonville.
NYT: Game Probabilities - Week 7
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also look at how the Chargers can be so dominant statistically yet only have two wins to show for it. It's something more in depth than my usual lead-ins for the game probabilities.
Here's an excerpt along with a graph I did not include in the original post:
"Successful plays are not enough. Consecutive successes are required to win.
...Two equal teams could each have 12 first downs in a game. One team could have three drives of four consecutive first downs, each leading to a touchdown, and the rest of its drives could be three-and-outs. The other team could have 12 drives consisting of one first down followed by a punt. Both teams could have equal yards, first downs and efficiency stats, and yet one team could win, 21-0. It’s easy to imagine a game in which one team has many more first downs and yards, but still loses. Could something like this bunching effect be cursing the Chargers?