What is going on at VfL Wolfsburg?

Wolfsburg are synonymous to women’s football. They are two time UEFA Women’s Champions League winners and with more runners-up finishes than any other club across Europe. The perennial contenders with a list of legends as their alumni. Anja Mittag, Nadine Keßler, Almuth Schult, Pernille Harder and Caroline Graham Hansen all played their trade for the She-Wolves at different points of time.

However, the German giants have failed to live up to their own reputation this season. After four consecutive titles between 2016-17 season and 2019-20 season, Wolfsburg have lost two of their last three domestic titles to arch-rivals Bayern Munich and are trailing them by seven points in 2023-24. The club also missed out on UWCL group stages this year for the first time since 2012.

Something is wrong, awfully wrong, for the German giants this season. Their win rate has dropped from 86% in 2022-23 season to 70.6% in 2023-24. They have dropped points in five games so far this season already, just one less than last two seasons combined.

Let’s try to understand the decline on the pitch and the results.

Tommy Stroot succeeded Stephan Lerch at Wolfsburg in 2021. In his third season now, Stroot has taken Wolfsburg to a UWCL final and won one league title and two German cups. Wolfsburg lacked balance under Lerch and things haven’t improved under Stroot in his three years, if they haven’t gotten worse.

Here is a data based comparison between the 2022-23 season and the 2023-24 season for Wolfsburg in the Frauen Bundesliga. The chart above gives us the percentile ranking in each of the metrics when compared against all the teams across Europe’s top five leagues in the last two seasons.

A quick glance at the attacking performance section and it becomes clear that Wolfsburg’s numbers have seen a decline in every single aspect this season compared to the last one. The She-Wolves averaging 19.6 shots per 90 last season which is down to 18.2 in the current one despite having a similar share of the ball.

Beyond volume, the quality of their shots has taken a major dip too. From averaging 2.6 non-penalty expected goals in 2022-23, Stroot’s side are down to 1.9 npxG in the current one. They are struggling to create shots from open-play and their reliance on shots from set-pieces has grown a lot this season. This underlines sides lack of ideas to create consistent threat from sustained possession.

This lack of ideas when on the ball is reflected in their passing style and performance section of the chart above. They are not just attempting lesser volume of passes but are struggling to penetrate the opposition third and penalty box. In 2022-23 season, Wolfsburg averaged 13.3 passes into the penalty area per 90, that number is down to 9.8 per 90 this season.

Photo by ANP via Getty Images

On the contrary, Stroot’s side has resorted to a slightly more direct approach in play this season. They are consistently looking to go vertical and target Alexandra Popp to get up field. This high-risk approach has resulted in some struggles with reaching the final third successfully and resulted in a lot of turnovers. Just 24.9% of their touches this season have come in the final third of the pitch, down from 28.4% last season.

But why this sudden decline in offensive output for a side that has had an inclination to play high risk attacking football?

The answer to this lies in their squad composition and Stroot’s reluctance to phase some players out. Wolfsburg’s squad is the oldest in the Frauen Bundesliga this season with an average age of 27.6 and this number has consistently increased in the last three seasons. Almost all of their 30+ players this season have played more than two-thirds of the total available league minutes this season. Their inability to phase out older players for younger alternatives has gone hand in hand in slight decline in performances over the course of a long season.

Beyond just phasing out, Stroot has been insistent on fitting players in at the cost of team balance this season. A big example of this is the incorporation of Alexandra Popp in the starting lineup this season alongside Ewa Pajor.

Both players, on paper, compete for the same striker spot in the squad. Instead of undergoing a formation change to accommodate for two forwards, Stroot has opted to play Pajor on the left flank this season.

54% of Pajor’s minutes in the league this term have come as the left winger in Stroot’s 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3. Despite her being the top goalscorer in the Frauen Bundesliga with 10 goals so far, it has taken a toll on her goalscoring numbers and her underlying statistics as well. This has seen one of the most dangerous last line and in box player to be shunted away from goal for large parts and forced to be more involved in the progression and chance creation phase of the game.

The Polish striker is averaging two more touches per 90 this season compared to the last. However, her touches inside the penalty box have dropped from 12 in 2022-23 season to just 7.9 in 2023-24 season. Her involvement outside of the final third has gone up which underlines a suboptimal usage of a player’s skillset. She is shouldering some chance creating responsibility albeit it not being her strongest suit.

Beyond it’s impact on Pajor herself, this has resulted in minimal usage of other actual wide options in the side like Jule Brand, Sveindis Jonsdottir and Vivien Endemann. Brand has made just 11 starts this season while Jonsdottir and Endemann have made just six starts each this season. This underlines lack of proper usage of the squad resources by Stroot and has gone hand-in-hand with Wolfsburg’s struggles this season.

Football is often cyclic and teams either adapt or perish in the changing times. The German giants are about to lose their crown jewels in the upcoming season as Lena Oberdorf is set to join archrivals Bayern Munich while there are rumours around Pajor leaving the pack as well.

The side that once sat among the pantheon of women’s football is chasing the pack. Predators before are preys now and there are other she-wolves waiting to hunt them down enroute to the summit again. The women’s football landscape is changing and Wolfsburg need to adapt or run the risk of falling behind like multiple clubs have done over the years.