2024 Mid-Season Prospect Rankings

This season, more than any other in recent memory has seen the prospect rankings go through some violent upheaval. In this case though, it is not because of some massive trade that shifted all sorts of talent, or because the team has promoted a dozen promising young men to the highest level. No, this season, the rankings have been tossed into chaos by the epidemic of injuries that the Arizona minor league system has experienced. Not only do these injuries make assigning a ranking even more difficult than it already is, but the injuries are also forcing the Diamondbacks to rethink the schedule of competitiveness moving forward. A not inconsequential number of players currently residing on the minor league injured list are from the upper reaches of the system, players who were originally pegged to start making meaningful contributions as early as this season.

Many of these names will be familiar to the avid readers at the Pit. Other names may be less so. There has been some significant churn n the middles reaches of the list. Some names have changed because of injury. Others have changed because of breakout performances. This list has undergone a few late adjustments in order to remove players from the list that are borderline no longer unknown quantities (here’s looking at you Bryce Jarvis, Blaze Alexander, Slade Cecconi). Also removed is Andrew Saalfrank, for somewhat obvious reasons at this point.

Here is the mid-season list in reverse order with current position and minor league assignment:

30. Caleb Roberts, C/OF (AA)
29. Pedro Catuy, OF (ACL)
28. Yassel Soler, 3B (ACL)
27. Andrew Pintar, OF (AA)
26. Gian Zapata, OF (ROK)
25. J.J. D’Orazio, C (AA)
24. Jacob Steinmetz, RHSP (A+)
23. Gerardo Gutierrez, RHRP (AA)
22. Adriel Radney, OF (ROK)
21. A.J. Vukovich, OF (AA)
20. Jorge Barrosa, OF (AAA)
19. Christian Cerda, C (A+)
18. Blake Walston, LHSP (MLB)
17. Jack Hurley, OF (A+)
16. Grayson Hitt, LHP (ROK)
15. Landon Sims RHRP (A+)
14. Kristian Robinson, OF (AA)
13. Caden Grice, LHP (ROK)
12. Christofer Torin, SS (A)
11. Jansel Luis, SS (A)

10. Gino Groover, 3B (A+)
Groover takes a simple, low-maintenance right-handed swing and possesses an exceptional knack for finding the barrel. Relying on some of the fastest hands in the minors and a quick bat, Groover has developed a penchant for making consistent, solid (even very hard) contact. His swing plan results in slightly more ground balls than is ideal, but his raw power and consistent contact still make him a 25 home run threat. When Groover was drafted in the second round of the 2023 draft, it was for his appealing combination of a low in-zone whiff rate and high exit velocities. Not all of this translated well to his 100 plate appearances with High-A Hillsboro. He chased at a roughly average rate, but the results from contact were lacking. Many evaluators envisioned Groover moving off third base based on his relative lack of experience at the hot corner. His final season in college was the first time Groover ever played the position. But, upon signing he made adjustments to his throwing motion, started using his legs more and impressed with his athleticism to the point that he could have a chance to stick. The Diamondbacks see Groover as one of the top pure hitters in their system, and whether he sticks at third base or ends up shifting to first or an outfield corner, the organization sees Groover as someone who can for both average and power while at least filling a utility role.

9. Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/DH (AAA)
De Los Santos is one of the biggest risers on this list and the organization is somewhat fortunate to have him in the fold. Clearly not quite ready for being a full-time MLB player, the AA-Amarillo assigned De Los Santos was grabbed by the Guardians in the Rule 5 Draft before being returned to Arizona at the start of the season. All the young man has done since then is punish baseballs with impunity. De Los Santos possesses the best raw power in the entire system. A young man nearly six years below the average age for his level, it is the combination of youth and massive power that has many talent evaluators drooling. Upon his return to the Arizona organization, De Los Santos crushed AA pitching to the tune of a .372/.426/.696 triple-slash. That’s a i.122 OPS, good for a 204 wRC+. That resulted in De Los Santos being bumped up to AAA, so that he could test himself against a higher caliber of pitcher. The bump in talent hardly slowed the young man down. Playing for the Reno Aces, De Los Santos has swatted his way to a .326/.373/.681 triple-slash, still a 148 wRC+. De Los Santos has made great strides in cutting down on his strikeouts from when he first debuted. However, he still has an excessive chase rate and does not take walks at the sort of clip one would expect from a hitter with his stats. Plate discipline is going to be key to De Los Santos taking the next step. If he can show a bit more patience and discernment, there is a very real chance he makes his MLB debut this September.

8. Adrian Del Castillo, C (AAA)
Adrian Del Castillo is the second of three players on this list who have taken advantage of health circumstances and strong 2024 development to fly up this list. Barely cracking the top-30 as recently as April, Del Castillo is now making a very strong case for an imminent promotion to the Majors. Long-time fans of the Diamondbacks will likely remember backup catcher Alex Avila. Del Castillo profiles in a very similar manner to the good-hitting version of Avila. Behind the plate, Del Castillo is a solid receiver, having improved his blocking and framing substantially in the last 18 months or so. Del Castillo has a slightly above average pop-time, though his arm is most fringe-average to average. Del Castillo is not going to win any defensive awards behind the plate, but he does possess the tools to make a viable bat-first back-up who will not embarrass when he dons the tools of ignorance. At the plate, Del Castillo has taken a giant leap forward in 2024. After limping across the finish line in 2023, looking like a player on the way down more than on the way up, Del Castillo has found new life through more exposure to the talent level. Finishing last season with a 72 wRC+ after 159 plate appearances in 2023, Del Castillo has ballooned that to a .329/402/.614 batting line, good for a 145 wRC+. Del Castillo’s primary future looks to be that of a backup catcher. However, if Del Castillo can bring that accomplished bat with him to the Majors, he profiles as a younger, more durable version of Mitch Garver, an accomplished C/DH/1B.

7. Yilber Diaz, RHP (AAA)
The third player of the trio to fly up this list due to a combination of health and performance, Yilber Diaz is putting up special numbers in the minors. Diaz quietly made the move to AA-Amarillo late last season. There, he had a very modest showing, giving indications that he would be a slow-mover and possibly a warm body filler at the AAA level by the end of 2024. Then, 2024 came around and so did Diaz. In 11 games for Amarillo, Diaz averaged over five innings per outing and a 12.83 K/9. Diaz also brough his walks down substantially and slightly increased his groundball rate. Eventually, the Arizona front office had no choice but to promote him to AAA in order to find him a stiffer challenge. To date, after four starts, Diaz has been up to the challenge and then some, culminating in last night’s performance in which Diaz went six innings, allowing no hits, walking two and striking out thirteen. Blessed with three plus pitches (fastball, slider, curve), Diaz has all the ingredients (save his size) to be a #3 starter in the Majors. Given his smaller size and previous track record, there is still a decent chance that Diaz finds his Major league future in the bullpen as a late reliever. If Diaz continues to throw well for Reno, there is a non-zero chance he could debut for Arizona this September. However, given that his previous high innings count was 102 innings in 2023, the organization may slow-play the young man who is already at 76 innings and then look to have him make the squad out of spring next season. Regardless of how it plays out, Arizona will need to add him to the 40-man roster this winter to keep from losing him in the Rule 5 draft.

6. Cristian Mena, RHSP (AAA)
The 21-old Mena was acquired from the Chicago White Sox during the offseason in exchange for outfielder, Dominic Fletcher. Mena is a pitcher who epitomizes being greater than the sum of his parts. Blessed with two solid breaking pitches and a projectable change, Mena gets the job done by having terrific mound presence and some of the cleanest mechanics of any pitching prospect to come through the system in a very long time. The biggest weakness for Mena is his below-average fastball. Mena throws in the low-90s with almost no movement. This lack of life or velocity limits Mena’s upside to a 34/5 starter or an innings-eating reliever. After missing the cut to slot into the rotation out of spring, Mena has continued to do yeoman’s work in Reno, awaiting the inevitable injury or performance-induced call-up. The expected debut for Mena should be anytime after the All-Star Game, though, if health holds for the 26-man roster, he could end up waiting until September.

5. Dylan Ray, RHSP (AA)
Ray was on a steep upward trajectory entering the 2024 season. The right-hander was making a case for moving from Amarillo into consideration for the 26-man roster by the end of the season. Then, injury struck. The injury upended the development of a young man with an impressive repertoire of pitches. This repertoire is made even more impressive by the fact that he spent most of the last few years as an injury recovery project who has thrown mostly from the bullpen. Ray possesses a plus slider, an above average curve, a plus (bordering on double-plus) change, but a fringe fastball. Ray makes up for the lack of oomph in that last pitch (which sits around 92-94), by pairing it with plus command. Ray will need to work to get himself fully healthy again and then work on building up his innings again. He threw 113.1 in 2023, but will be fortunate if he can reach 50 in 2024.

4. Yu-Min Lin, LHSP (AA)
Yu-Min Lin entered the 2024 season looking like a pitcher who would provide some meaningful innings of coverage at the highest level by the end of the year. Then, injury struck. This time, it was in the form of a foul ball into the dugout that struck Lin in the face, shattering his jaw in multiple places. Much like De Los Santos, a big portion of Lin’s hype comes from his age. Despite being over four years younger than most of his peers, Lin carved up A+ ball, earning himself a mid-season promotion to Amarillo last season. There, now over 5years younger than his peers, Lin continued to hold his own. Like so many other prospects to come through the Arizona system, it is Lin’s stature, as much as anything, that prevents him from making an appearance on some bigger, more prominent lists. The 5’11” Taiwanese pitcher has a slight frame to go with his diminutive stature (for a pitcher). This lack of size makes projecting Lin’s future development difficult. His stature would seem to indicate that he is destined to eventually pitch from the bullpen. His recent, pre-injury results indicate he may have the makings of a #4/5 left-handed starter. Lin’s toolbox features an average fastball and an average slider, but a plus-plus change and plus command to go along with significant mound presence. Lin is the sort of pitcher who can think his way through situations and is adept at keeping hitters off-balance, much like the best changeup artists out there. With this season mostly lost to injury, look for Lin to make big waves during spring of next year.

3. Druw Jones, OF (A)
There really is not much to be said about Jones at this point that has not already been said over and over again. Jones entered the 2024 season looking to put the disastrous, injury-laden 2023 behind him. All eyes turned to see what the young man with the loud tools and even louder pedigree was going to do with a clean slate. Then, injury struck (Is anyone else sensing a trend here?) Jones is already an MLB-caliber talent defensively, with the instincts and range to play an easy center field and the arm to play the deepest of right fields. Jones also profiles as a plus-plus runner. But then, there is that Jones family swing of his. The unorthodox, funky, back-leg stepping swing caused Jones no shortage of troubles when he first returned to active playing. Slowly, over the course of the season, Jones has begun to turn the results around, despite not having done much to clean up his hitting mechanics. Given how much time Jones missed to injury and how long it took him to adjust to the league once he started getting regular reps again, it seems likely that Arizona will slow-play the young man, letting him finish out the year in the lower minors before examining the possibility of a promotion to Amarillo early next season. Jones is going to need to continue to surprise or he is going to need to undergo a swing tweak before he can be expected to really shine as a prospect again. Still, the tools are there and so is the drive. The next three months are going to go a very long way in determining just what sort of future the former #2 overall pick has.

2. Tommy Troy IF (A+)
Tommy Troy looked poised to make a rapid ascent through the system as a fastball-punishing infielder out of the college ranks. There were even some hopes he could reach AAA by September. Then, injury struck. Another skill player with a sub-six-foot frame, Troy has all the tools and athleticism (including a strong throwing arm) to play anywhere on the dirt. Listed as a shortstop, Troy spent significant time there for Stanford before moving full-time to third base. There may be no player in the history of the organization who was more thoroughly scouted and understood than Troy, who almost certainly can thank the COVID pandemic for him not joining the professional ranks back in 2020. The book on Troy is that he is one of the best fastball hitters out there, able to turn around elite speed with ease. Starting the season in Hillsboro, things did not go smoothly for Troy before injury. With the majority of the season already lost, Troy slides from a potential mid-2025 target for his MLB debut to a possible late-2026 debut. He’ll first need to show he has the ability to lay off of breaking pitches and then to hit with authority. First though, he needs to make a full return to health.

1. Jordan Lawlar, SS (MLB)
The man who forced Nick Ahmed from the playoff roster in 2023 entered the 2024 season as a potential candidate to push Geraldo Perdomo to the bench. Then (stop me if you have heard this one before), injury struck. After losing time to an injured hand, Lawlar made a brief return, before going down with a hamstring injury. The combination of injuries, combined with his terrible showing in September and his lackluster results in Reno here in 2024 have pushed Lawlar back from being a likely contributor this year, to potentially waiting to make the roster out of spring next year. For Arizona, that could work out nicely, as Lawlar is still eligible to help Arizona qualify for an extra draft pick should he do well with his next MLB opportunity. Lawlar has great speed, some of the best in the system. He also has a slightly above average glove, though his arm raises questions regarding whether or not Lawlar could play third, or even if he should be playing short. With his glove and instincts, Lawlar’s arm should still be plenty for him to stick at short. However, the arm is almost certain to be exposed if he plays regularly at third. At the plate, Lawlar possesses decent power, though he has difficulty tapping into it in game situations. His hit tool flashed much better than expected during a four-month run of excellence last season. It then flashed some distressing trends after he was promoted. It is unlikely that Lawlar will be getting more reps at any level before late-August, perhaps even early-September. His future remains bright, as evidenced by Lawlar also showing up on the many top-100 lists. However, Lawlar has to get healthy and start finding some results at the plate again. Once Lawlar starts getting regular reps again in Reno, look for the team to make him concentrate on his plate discipline. Cutting down on his strikeout and increasing his walks will go a very long way toward helping Lawlar reach his all-star potential. Expect a heated competition for playing time at short in March and April. Until then, much like with so many others on this list, Lawlar’s current development is all about being patient with injury recovery.