Theo Epstein’s contract ends next year, and he would be one of the more prominent free agents in the game if he didn’t re-sign with the Cubs.
No one believes that’s a realistic possibility, of course.
Epstein has built the Cubs into contender status, as the Cubs hired him to do. Now it’s just a matter of how big of a raise he deserves.
“We’ll sit down and talk about it at some point with him,” Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts said Monday during his victory lap with the media. “Right now really we’re just focusing on the postseason. Theo and I have a great relationship. Obviously the results are great and I think not just Theo, but everyone in the baseball organization, we’re on a mission.”
Epstein said he’s not thinking about an extension, which is the way it should be.
It should be announced after the Cubs’ season ends. The last time the Cubs went into the postseason in 2008, general manager Jim Hendry received a four-year extension from former Tribune Co. boss Sam Zell a couple of weeks after they got swept by the Dodgers.
Ricketts fired Hendry in the summer of 2011 and hired Epstein, giving him the title of president of baseball operations. It’s now standard operating procedure, with former GM Dave Dombrowski becoming president in Boston and Billy Beane reportedly in line to become president in Oakland.
Ricketts is not in a good bargaining position, so he is going to have to hope Epstein’s demands aren’t insane. Ricketts can’t let Epstein go through the 2016 season unsigned, a scenario that would create a huge distraction. An Andre Dawson-type of blank check may be his best hope.
So what will it take? Only Epstein knows for sure, but let’s take a guess:
The starting point should be $35 million over five years, which was Andrew Friedman’s reported deal to become president of baseball operations with the Dodgers.
Friedman is basically Theo Lite.
He won a pennant in Tampa in ’08 with a young team and a brilliant manager, and inherited a playoff team in Los Angeles with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
Epstein has two rings from Boston and one wild-card team he created almost from scratch on the North Side.
The common denominator between the two is Joe Maddon.
So you can assume Epstein will get at least as much as Friedman, and probably $5 million or so more.
Next up is taking care of his front office personnel, which is growing with more layers of titles. A bigger front office budget should be a given. The many special assistants to Epstein may even get a bonus. (And Manny Ramirez, too, for Manny being Manny.)
Third on Epstein’s list might be an increased player payroll, which should be an easy sell after this season. The Cubs have no minor league pitchers ready to step into the rotation, so they’re going to have to spend on another stud.
David Price, who loves Maddon, is not going to come cheap. Jake Arrieta, who carried the team while making only $3.6 million, also is in line for a nice extension, and the Cubs will explore that after the season. He’s not a free agent, but he’s the most valuable player on the team and deserves to be compensated. The Cubs will also need another center fielder if Dexter Fowler leaves, and a couple of late-inning relievers.
Amazingly, Ricketts pulled out the old line Monday that spending money on players is not a panacea.
“The correlation between the dollars you spend and the wins you get on the field is going down every single year,” he said.
Maybe, but the cost of pitching is still significant, and the Cubs need pitching to compete with the Pirates and Cardinals in the best division in baseball. The Giants’ payroll went up from $96 million in 2010, their first of three titles in five seasons, to $173 million this year. Teams that want to win consistently spend consistently.
Ricketts later said Epstein will have “resources,” so we’ll see how much he gets.
Last, but not least, Epstein should probably demand more power as long as he’s got Ricketts over the barrel. But how much power does one man need?
Perhaps just a smidge more than president of business operations Crane Kenney.
The two may be equals as far as job titles go, but only one of them is indispensable.
In the end, Epstein’s payday will be good for everyone in the organization because he acknowledges the importance of every employee under him.
That’s what good bosses do.
