Russia has invaded Ukraine. Now what?
It is an utter tragedy for the people of that nascent democracy who have been struggling to rid themselves of their communist, authoritarian past. More than anything else, I think it is that prospect Vladimir Putin fears most. If Ukraine can manage to truly free its people by creating a thriving democracy, how long will it be before the Russian people demand the same for themselves?
People yearning to be free is hardly a legitimate reason to invade another country, so Putin had to invent something better. What he landed on is farcical — the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. Ukrainians died by the millions fighting the Nazis during World War II, not to mention Ukraine’s president is Jewish.
(As an aside, Americans would do well to learn from this experience. Throwing around terms like “Nazi”, “Fascist” and “Traitor” to describe political opponents is not without consequence.)
Almost 80 years after the end of World War II, once again the world must deal with an egomaniacal despot bent on conquest. Today, we have the advantage of hindsight. We know what didn’t work to stop Hitler. What does the world need to do to stop Putin?
Russia must be made to pay a terrible price for its aggression.
Everything that touches the country needs to be sanctioned. All Russian banks need to be denied access to the SWIFT system. Every last drop of Russian oil and natural gas needs to be embargoed.
At the same time, we need to increase American oil and gas production to help moderate global energy prices, blunting the economic hardship Western nations will face because of the embargo.
The world needs to provide the weapons and logistical support Ukraine needs to maintain a powerful insurgency capable of bleeding Russia the way it was bled in Afghanistan. A never-ending stream of body bags needs to flow back into Russia courtesy of a well equipped Ukrainian insurgency. Putin may conquer Ukraine, but he will not conquer the Ukrainian people.
And Russia needs to be treated as a pariah state, isolated globally. If China wants to enable Russia’s aggression, steps should be taken to impose costs on that country as well.
If the cost of Putin’s militaristic adventurism is made high enough, he may very well come to rue the day he decided to flex his inner Stalin. Current circumstances may actually prove a catalyst to opening the door to a seismic shift in Russian leadership, but only if the West plays its cards right.
That outcome is entirely possible, but to achieve it will require nimble American leadership. The US and its allies must continue to act with determined resolve, and most important, the people of all Western nations must be willing to bear the economic hardships of holding Russia accountable for its actions.
Putin has bet the West will not be willing to bear those costs for long, and will soon enough get used to the idea of a Ukraine dominated by Russia. Adversaries around the world learned long ago they need only wait us out. If we allow that to happen this time, there is no telling how far Russian aggression will take it, and the West will open itself up to whatever other bad actors around the world think they can accomplish using the same template Russia has laid out for them.
There can be only one reason Putin moved against Ukraine. He believed the benefits of taking the country would outweigh the costs he would incur by doing so. President Biden has done much to rebuild his credibility in the days since the invasion, but it is the Ukrainian people who are paying the price for him not being more credible in the days leading up to that invasion.
Do America and the Western nations have the intestinal fortitude to do what they must? Unless we wish to live in a world in which autocrats forever hold the sword of Damocles over our heads, the answer to that question better be, yes. Despots like Putin feed on weakness. They have no moral compass to inhibit their militaristic ambitions. They work to create circumstances that provide the opportunity to act, and then seize those opportunities as they present themselves.
That the sanctions imposed on Russia by President Biden currently do nothing to inhibit the sale of Russian oil and natural gas is an indication Biden understands the limits of American patience when it comes to higher fuel prices, yet the president refuses to do anything to increase energy production here at home. The US and its allies are still buying Russian oil and natural gas. In a very real sense, by doing so we are financing Putin’s war with Ukraine.
I understand the administration wants to move the American economy away from fossil fuels, but the transition to alternate sources of energy is certainly not going to happen in time to help Ukraine, and I refuse to believe we are willing to sacrifice the Ukrainian people and our global security on the altar of climate change. The strongest weapon in America’s economic arsenal is its substantial energy reserves.
It is time for America to deploy that weapon. I’m not sure what we’re waiting for.
Chris Roemer is a retired banker and educator who resides in Finksburg. He can be contacted at [email protected]
