The first half didn’t end the way the Orioles would have hoped, with the club’s worst week in more than two years.
Baltimore’s thrilling walk-off win over the New York Yankees on Sunday ended a five-game losing streak, sending the club’s five All-Stars to Arlington, Texas, on a high note. But now that the Home Run Derby, the red carpet walk and the All-Star Game are over, it’s time for a second half that will feature an intriguing trade deadline and a heated race for the American League East.
The Orioles (58-38) entered the second half Friday with 66 games remaining on their schedule and a one-game lead over the Yankees in search of Baltimore’s second straight AL East crown.
To kick off the second half and in advance of the July 30 trade deadline, Baltimore Sun Orioles reporters Jacob Calvin Meyer and Matt Weyrich and editor Tim Schwartz answer five questions facing the Orioles.
What player needs a great second half for the Orioles to win the division?
Meyer: Is it cheating to say Gunnar Henderson? Yes. Is it the right answer? Also yes. The Orioles went 5-8 over their final two weeks of the regular season for perhaps the club’s worst stretch in more than two years. Henderson spent those 13 games in a mini-slump — hitting .255 with only one walk, four extra-base hits and a .686 OPS. Before then, the Orioles were 53-30 thanks in large part to the AL Most Valuable Player candidate’s remarkable .292/.388/.612 slash line that amounted to a whopping 1.000 OPS. Henderson and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge are battling each other for the AL MVP Award, and the one who plays like it down the stretch might also lead his team to the division crown.
Weyrich: When Grayson Rodriguez is right, the Orioles win games. The right-hander is tied for the AL lead with 11 wins and has been largely terrific this season except for three disaster outings in which he allowed 20 of the 43 earned runs against him. The Orioles know what they’re getting out of Corbin Burnes every time he takes the ball, but they need Rodriguez to be just as reliable with all the uncertainties in the rotation behind them.
Schwartz: Burnes. The Orioles lead the division because they have a true, front-of-the-rotation ace for the first time since Mike Mussina. They pitched above their weight in 2023, but now that injuries have taken their toll, Burnes is keeping them afloat — and then some. If they hope to fend off the Yankees, Burnes continuing to dominate will be necessary.
Who should be the favorite to win the AL East?
Meyer: The team that does more at the trade deadline. The fight for the division title will almost certainly be close — with the season’s penultimate series in New York looming large. FanGraphs gives the Yankees, whose rotation and bullpen are both stronger than the Orioles, a 52.1% chance to win the AL East, ahead of Baltimore at 44.2%. So, it’s basically a toss-up with a slight edge to the team with a better run differential. Both clubs have obvious needs — starting pitching for the Orioles, a third baseman for the Yankees — and with the race this tight, the team that addresses its needs the best later this month might be rewarded for it in September.
Weyrich: The favorite to win the division should be, in theory, the team that plays better when at its best. After all, what other kind of baseball should you expect out of postseason contenders down the stretch? That team is the Orioles, who proved last year they were the class of the AL East when they won the division and have done nothing to suggest they’re in danger of relinquishing it. The Orioles are much better poised to absorb injury than New York and a couple of key additions to the rotation and bullpen would give as complete a roster as you’ll see in a World Series contender.
Schwartz: Give me the Orioles. They won the division last year and have the most talented team in the AL East. As Matt mentioned, they also have the depth to overcome an injury to just about anyone (except Burnes) on the roster. The Yankees’ best pitcher in the first half, Luis Gil, is a rookie who has already thrown 102 1/3 innings, 6 1/3 more than his previous career high in 2019. It seems unlikely he can sustain his 3.17 ERA. Plus, you can count on the Orioles to make a move at the deadline that will put them over the top … right?
The Orioles are on pace to win 97 games. Will they win more than 97 or fewer?
Meyer: The Orioles went 13-16 over their final 29 games of the second half. That stretch featured the regression that statheads have been forecasting the past two seasons, specifically on offense as the bats floundered with runners in scoring position. They were 1-for-39 (.026) in such situations during the five-game losing streak before Cedric Mullins’ walk-off double and 16-for-100 (.160) across the final 13 games of the first half, in which Baltimore won only five. Are these struggles indicative of what’s to come or just a typical slow stretch in a 162-game season? Maybe a little of both. Am I going to answer this question? No.
Weyrich: Here’s a hot take for you: Not only will the Orioles win more than 97 games, they’ll eclipse their total of 101 from last season. Over the first half, the Orioles’ opponents had a combined .510 winning percentage — tied for the most difficult strength of schedule in baseball. Their remaining opponents have a combined .492 winning percentage — tied for the seventh easiest. Six of their first eight series to open the second half are against teams at .500 or worse, and one of the two exceptions is San Diego, which is 50-49. Expect the finally well-rested Orioles to hit the ground running coming out of the All-Star break.
Schwartz: The Orioles will win … 101 games. They faltered down the final stretch of the first half, their first real struggles since last year’s postseason, and they are still 20 games over .500. They’re going to make a move at the deadline (remember?) to fortify their rotation. An extended winning streak or a dominant stretch is in their near future, too, with how weak their second-half schedule is.
What pitcher on the trade market makes the most sense for the Orioles?
Meyer: Everyone is having fun talking about Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, and after general manager Mike Elias pulled the trigger for Burnes this offseason, perhaps anything is possible. But a trade for Skubal (or Chicago White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet) would cost a king’s ransom from the Orioles’ farm system — a premium that’s not worth paying when there are plenty of other options on the market. It’s more pragmatic to target the several veteran starters who have some team control but contracts that could lower the prospect capital Baltimore would have to give up. Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Zach Eflin could be a good fit. He finished sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting last year, owns MLB’s lowest walk rate (2.1%) and is owed $18 million next year by a franchise always looking to save a buck. The Orioles were one of those franchises under John Angelos, but this deadline could show whether that will be the same under David Rubenstein.
Weyrich: Eflin makes sense, sure. But if Skubal is indeed available, nobody would be a better fit on this Orioles roster. The MLB leader in ERA (2.41) entering the break has been the best pitcher on a per-inning basis in the league since 2023 and is under team control for the next 2 1/2 years. The Orioles’ lack of pitching depth isn’t an issue isolated to this season. With Burnes likely headed for free agency this offseason, they will need another top-of-the-rotation arm secured for the next few years while Kyle Bradish works his way back from Tommy John surgery. If the Tigers are interested in, say, a package of Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, Chayce McDermott and a lottery ticket prospect in Single-A, the Orioles have the pieces to absorb that kind of deal.
Schwartz: If — and it’s a big if — Skubal is truly available, the Orioles should consider trading the moon and the stars for him. In this metaphor, the moon would be Jackson Holliday, and the stars would be a guy like Connor Norby or McDermott (or both). Skubal, a lefty, would fit in perfectly (see: Walltimore, the giant monstrosity that is the deep left field wall). He and Burnes would make arguably the best 1-2 in baseball, and with several years of team control, he’d be their ace next year. That’s a move worth making, and the Orioles are one of maybe two teams with the prospect pool to make it happen and still maintain depth to overcome potential injuries.
Which prospects — if any — should be off the table?
Meyer: When asked during the winter meetings if there are any Orioles prospects he’s not willing to trade away, Elias said: “I can think of at least one.” If that was true about Jackson Holliday (No. 2 prospect in MLB per Baseball America) in December, a sample size of 36 plate appearances in the big leagues didn’t change that. The other three members of Baltimore’s core four — Mayo (No. 12), Samuel Basallo (No. 16) and Kjerstad (No. 23) — are not in the same tier as Holliday. But Mayo, whose 1.030 OPS in the minors has him on the Orioles’ doorstep, and Basallo, who is only 19 years old with a beautiful and powerful left-handed swing, would be more difficult to part ways with than Kjerstad, a quality big league hitter but one who is already 25 with unanswered questions about his defensive ability.
Weyrich: The shortlist should be Holliday, and that’s about it. Certain players such as Basallo or Mayo might be untouchable for rentals, which is certainly reasonable. Given the rentals that project to be available at this year’s deadline, Kjerstad and 2023 first-round pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. might qualify as well. But for a franchise-changing piece with multiple years of control, Holliday is the only player who the Orioles should immediately balk at including in trade talks. At a certain point, the Orioles will have to sacrifice some more of their young position player depth for some arms. Refusal to entertain any deals with Mayo or Basallo included could come back to haunt them.
Schwartz: None. The Orioles are a legitimate World Series contender. How often does that happen, really? Now think about the last time that happened in Baltimore. The year was 2014. Before then, there’s a good chance you weren’t born yet. They have more trade chips than any team in baseball. Use them to win.
