Corbin Burnes has a case for the title of baseball’s best pitcher this season. He started the All-Star Game for the American League on Tuesday, and his 2.38 ERA is second in MLB and his best since he won the National League Cy Young Award three years ago.
And yet, there’s a stat the right-hander ranks dead last in that encompasses his attitude toward one aspect of pitching, however inconsequential it might be.
Burnes is 343rd out of 343 qualified pitchers this season in Baseball Savant’s pitcher base advances prevented, a metric that shows a pitcher’s effectiveness at controlling the running game when on the mound.
For Burnes, that’s intentional.
“That’s not what I’m thinking about when I’m out there,” he said earlier this season. “For me, it’s kind of secondary as far as what I’m trying to do.”
With his elite stuff and command, he’s maybe one of the only pitchers who can afford to think that way. But other members of the Orioles’ pitching staff echo that sentiment, and it’s hurting their catcher’s chances of throwing out attempted base stealers.
Collaboration between pitchers and catchers is key to preventing runners from taking extra bases. They meet weekly to achieve that. At times, though, they don’t appear to be in lockstep.
Before every series, Baltimore’s pitchers and catchers go over the upcoming opponent’s base running tendencies. The opposing team’s overall base running philosophy and individual players’ aggressiveness are analyzed to ensure they’re familiar with the threats they’ll face.
“There’s a handful of runners that are looking to go at all times,” backup catcher James McCann said. “There’s a handful of runners that are looking to take advantage of you if you get sloppy — using that word in the sense of, you’re not paying attention. We as a team know who those guys are and we prepare for it.”
Those meetings seemingly haven’t translated to the field.
Two-time All-Star Adley Rutschman ranks 12th among MLB catchers in arm strength, according to Baseball Savant. Despite that, he’s 34th in caught stealing rate among 64 qualified catchers. McCann is tied with him with a 21% success rate.
That’s because both catchers rank near the bottom of the league in the distance a base stealer is to second base when they receive a pitch. Runners are an average of 55 feet away from advancing safely when Rutschman and McCann are behind the plate, up to five feet closer to second base than when other MLB catchers are receiving pitches.
“You want to give the catcher the best chance to throw the guy out, but at the same time it’s still you versus the guy at the plate,” said rookie left-hander Cade Povich, whom the Orioles optioned to Triple-A Norfolk before the All-Star break.
Grayson Rodriguez is the Orioles’ best pitcher at controlling runners. His three pitcher base advances prevented is tied for 11th in MLB with electric arms such as Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, Arizona’s Zac Gallen and Pittsburgh’s Jared Jones.
No other current member of Baltimore’s starting rotation ranks in the top 100 of the metric. (Kyle Bradish, who had season-ending Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in June, is 28th, while Cole Irvin, who made 14 starts this season before being moved to the bullpen, is 38th.)
Burnes is at the bottom of that list with negative-13 pitcher base advances prevented; only he and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman are worse than minus-6. Burnes has the 10th-highest stolen base allowed rate among pitchers with at least 300 innings, and runners attempt to steal off him at the third-highest clip in MLB. He’s tied for the largest average base runner lead allowed.
The ace’s focus is solely on the batter and not base runners, a strategy that’s worked for him throughout his career but has unwanted side effects. Other Orioles pitchers share that mindset.
“Is it a focal point for me? No,” Irvin said. “Because it’s something that’s already a part of my process and how I pitch. I would agree with [Burnes] that the most important thing is the pitch thrown to the hitter because he’s the one that’s ultimately going to bring that guy in.”
Rutschman and McCann are not completely devoid of blame. Rutschman ranks 59th of 64 qualified catchers in average exchange time — the time between the catcher receiving the pitch and releasing his throw — and McCann is in the bottom half in pop time — the time it takes from the catcher receiving the pitch to the infielder catching the throw at second — and arm strength.
When a pitcher is struggling with holding runners, the catcher’s job becomes reminding them of what they discussed in their pre-series meetings, McCann said. Catchers don’t want to give the pitcher something else to think about on the mound, but they also want to be given a chance.
“I wouldn’t say it’s something like an added stressor,” McCann said. “It’s more of just reminding guys what their target time is.”
The Orioles still allow the seventh-fewest steals per game in MLB, largely because their pitchers are successful at preventing base runners in the first place. Baltimore has the seventh-best WHIP in baseball at 1.20, which allows Orioles pitchers to ignore the running game at times. But when runners do reach, they often face little resistance taking an extra bag.
A quick glance suggests Rutschman and McCann are underperforming in an integral part of their position. A deeper dive reveals a more nuanced answer. They allow stolen bases at high rates, but their pitchers aren’t helping.
The Orioles, leading their division with the sixth-best team ERA at the All-Star break, are making it work.
