MLB Trade Deadline: Could the Braves deal for a shortstop?

(Editor’s note: In the past, we have run Trade Deadline series focused on specific targets. However, as we all know at this point, we could run 35 pieces identifying potential acquisitions, and the Braves would somehow manage to acquire four players outside of that set of 35. So, we’re doing things a bit differently this year, focusing on why they might or might not make a move at the Trade Deadline, rather than emphasizing whom they might acquire.)

Why the Braves need help at shortstop

In short, Orlando Arcia has been bad. Really bad. His 57 wRC+ is dead last among players qualified for the batting title. Nor is it the case that he’s gotten unlucky; his .242 xwOBA is also dead last among players qualified for the batting title, and is actually lower than his .250 wOBA. He has now slipped below replacement level, and has -0.1 fWAR at the All-Star Break.

There was a point where it was possible to say, “Sure, he’s a free out now, but at least he’s providing good defense.” It’s not clear whether the Braves and Arcia are still at that point. Despite some protestations on the broadcast that Arcia has not let his offensive downturn affect his fielding, well... Arcia accumulated +3 OAA-based runs in April, and +1 in May, but stumbled to a -3 in June. He’s at +1 so far in July. That’s not to say that he’s had some defensive hiccups because he’s been struggling offensively, but his +2 OAA-based runs for the year place him middle of the pack defensively among shortstops.

The bottom line is that the Braves are 28th in MLB in shortstop production, one of only three teams with sub-replacement shortstop play to this point. Beyond that, you could try to read the tea leaves and come up with an inkling that perhaps even the Braves are growing tired of Arcia’s lack of production: recently, he’s both been asked to bunt and been pinch-hit for late, things that had never occurred before his 2024 mega-skid.

Are there internal options that make sense in lieu of a trade?

Yes and no, but it seems like the Braves have mostly erred on the side of “no,” at least so far. The Braves always carry various pseudo-shortstop-capable roster barnacles like Luke Williams and Zack Short, but there’s no reason to think those guys are suddenly going to be worth a starting role. (Williams has -0.4 fWAR in 259 career PAs, and a 59 wRC+; Short defies nominative determinism by not being a particularly useful fielder and has an absurd -1.5 fWAR in 533 career PAs. It’s not clear why the Braves are even continuing to carry the latter, or how he somehow supplanted both Luis Guillorme and David Fletcher as the backup infielder.)

The elephant in the minor league clubhouse closet is Nacho Alvarez Jr., who ran a .380 OBP in Double-A across 202 PAs, and then got promoted to Triple-A, where he’s raked in 119 PAs so far (142 wRC+). There are questions about his ability to handle a major league shortstop assignment defensively, and how his style of contact-over-power swinging will translate to the majors, but most tellingly at this point, the Braves opted not to give him a cup of coffee when Arcia missed a few games with tooth troubles. That would’ve been a low-stakes, inherently time-limited tryout, and the Braves subjected us to Zack Short instead. So, while the thinking may change as they probe the trade market in the latter half of July, it’s at least not blindingly obvious that Alvarez, rather than an external candidate, is the preferred path forward.

Any reasons not to seek a trade to bolster shortstop?

At this point, those reasons have to be entirely banking on Arcia playing like something other than his 2024 self. On the one hand, that expectation isn’t unreasonable, because a lot of Arcia’s issues to date are approach-based and therefore should be easy to stop.

One of the changes the Braves had Arcia implement when he came over from the Brewers was to be a lot more selective about which strikes he offered at. While many players end up trading contact for power when implementing the Braves’ preferred approach, Arcia actually saw increases in his z-contact in 2022-2023, which suggests that prior to that point, he was really just swinging to swing. This year, though, he’s running one of his highest z-swings ever, and also missing a bunch of stuff not in the zone. While the quality of contact stuff for him is mixed, the killer has been a bunch of routine pulled grounders. Basically, without getting into a whole long thing about Arcia’s 2024 plate issues, he’s fundamentally just swinging too much at stuff he can only pull to short or third. It’s one thing to say, “Well, yeah, that should be easy to stop,” but it’s another to indicate that it’s mid-July and he still hasn’t, even though the issues have been the same all season.

Okay, so if they’re going to try to trade for someone, whom might they get?

• Bo Bichette’s name has come up a ton, and he does tick the box of massively underhitting his xwOBA this year, but he’s a poor defensive shortstop.
• Paul DeJong is outhitting his (not great) xwOBA and is not playing shortstop well this year, though his defensive track record is quite good.
• Guys like C.J. Abrams, Zach Neto, Max Schuemann, Ezequiel Tovar are some combination of super-team-controlled and/or one of the few bright spots on their own team, so a trade of them is unlikely.
• And, lastly, the Marlins already released Tim Anderson for some of the worst play you’ll see from any player this year, and are still sorting through replacements.

Beyond those targets, you’re really getting into speculative weeds. Offseason waiver claim Romy Gonzalez has had a nice 90ish PAs in Boston so far, but was horrible before then. The Rays might be okay with spinning Jose Caballero after acquiring him in the offseason, but he doesn’t hit well and really doesn’t jive with what the Braves want their hitters to do. Dylan Moore is another poor-fielding option only mentioned here because we all know Jerry DiPoto has the itchiest trade trigger finger in baseball.

The main point is that there isn’t really an obvious option. Bichette seems like the only theoretically good player that might be acquirable, but if you are banking on him returning to form, you can also bank on Arcia returning to form by just making a few approach adjustments, and then you don’t have to give up any value, either.

For that reason, it’s not clear whether a trade for shortstop help makes sense — not so much because the Braves have a fine-enough situation at shortstop, but because it’s not clear what out there would feasibly improve it.