Braves seek to unravel Logan Webb in finale versus Giants

As the Braves head into the rubber game of their series with the Giants on Independence Day, they have a bit of a tall task ahead of them: upending the generally excellent Logan Webb while hoping Charlie Morton avoids (the bad kind of) fireworks. Now in his sixth season in the majors, Webb just keeps trucking along: he posted at least 4 fWAR in each of his past three campaigns, and already has 2.7 this year. His career pitching line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) is a fantastic 82/77/76, and he’s at 80/73/78 this year. He’s top ten among starters in fWAR right now, and firmly in the top 20 among the 150 starters with the most innings by FIP- and xFIP-. He’s also gotten better as the season has gone along, as his xFIP has dropped from 3.27 in April to 3.10 in May and then to 2.90 in June. He’s had just three starts all season with an FIP- above 100 (and only one in his past ten tries), and hasn’t had a start with an xFIP- above 100 since May 15. Basically, the Braves are in for a tough time. He’s also pitched either six or seven innings in each of his last ten starts, so it’s unlikely he’s going to go away soon enough for the Braves to damage some middle relief pitching, either.

To counter, the Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound, and at this point, Morton is no Logan Webb. His pitching line is 94/97/99, and the fact that if you look only at results, he’s alternated good and bad outings over his last nine starts is not particularly gratifying, given that this pattern suggests he’s due for another bad outing today. That said, the peripherals tell a more muddled story, and Morton is coming off his best start of the year, where he flummoxed the Pirates for 6 ¹⁄₃ scoreless frames with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, but still, this is not exactly a favorable pitching matchup.

If there’s one thing you want to hang your hat on, it’s that the Braves did give Webb a rough time last year. He faced them in back-to-back starts in August — the first one, in Atlanta, saw him get BABIPed and also give up a homer such that he was tagged with four runs despite a 5/0 K/BB ratio. Then, in San Francisco, the Braves really jumped all over him, as he managed just a 1/1 K/BB ratio and was charged with five runs while failing to make it out of the sixth in one of his worst starts of the year. That said, this is a very different Braves team than last year’s historic offense, and the guys that took Webb deep last year aren’t even healthy and on the active roster right now.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, July 4, 7:20 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia

TV: Bally Sports South, MLB Network (out-of-market only)

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

XM Radio: Ch. 89 / Online