We thought that last year’s Tour de France would be the last chance for Great Britain’s Mark Cavendish to win the 35th Tour de France stage of his career, thus breaking his tie with Belgian legend Eddy Merckx. But just as Cavendish looked to be hitting top form, he crashed on a stretch of wide, flat road in the middle of Stage 8, breaking his collarbone and ending his Tour.
But rumors soon began to emerge that Cavendish might return for one more season, and one more chance to break the record. Well, those rumors proved to be true, and the 39-year-old will be taking the starting line in Florence on Saturday for one last Tour de France.
When the route was announced last October, the Tour’s organizers identified eight “flat” stages, but we think only six—maybe seven–of them are suitable for Cavendish. That means there are at least six solid chances for the Manx Missile to beat Merckx.
This is perhaps the most mountainous Tour in decades, with all but one of the Tour’s 19 road stages containing at least one categorized climb. So Cavendish–and the Tour’s other sprinters–have fewer chances than usual to win stages and earn points toward the Tour’s green jersey competition.
So with Monday’s Stage 3 expected to be the first to end in a field sprint, here’s a rundown of each of these six sprint stages–along with a seventh “tweener” stage that could go either way. And in case you want to tune-in and (hopefully) watch Cav make history, we’ve suggested when to watch so you can mark your calendars now.
Stage 3 - Piacenza to Torino (230.5km) - Monday, July 1
After two hard stages to open the Tour, Cavendish and the Tour’s other sprinters should get their first chance for a stage win on Stage 3. Beginning in Piacenza, Stage 3 is the longest stage of the 2024 Tour de France at 230.5km, but there are only three Category 4 climbs spread throughout the route. The last one comes about 50km from the finish in Torino, which gives the sprinters’ teams more than enough time to reel in any breakaways. This will be a fast, dangerous sprint as the sprinters and their teams have likely been saving themselves during Stages 1 and 2 in the hopes of being fresh for Stage 3.
Cavendish sometimes takes a day or two to get into a rhythm, so he might not break the record here. But he’s taken victories in Torino before: he won the Milano-Torino semi-Classic here in 2022, so he has at least some familiarity with the roads.
A win here would be somewhat ironic, as Cavendish would be breaking the record for the most Tour de France stage wins on Italian soil. Coincidentally, the last grand tour stage victory of Cav’s career also came in Italy: he won the final stage of the Giro d’Italia in Rome last year.
When to Watch: The stage is expected to finish around 11:15 a.m. EDT, so to give yourself a bit of a buffer–in case the race is running ahead of schedule–we suggest checking-in around 10:45 a.m. EDT and seeing how many kilometers are left in the stage. Make sure you’re watching with at least 10km to go, so that you can catch all the action as the sprinters’ teams set-up their lead-outs heading into the finish.
Stage 5 - Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to Saint-Vulbas/Plaine de l'Ain (177.5km) - Wednesday, July 3
Stage 4 brings the Tour de France into France, but passes over three Alpine passes along the way–so there will be no field sprint at the finish in Valloire. But Stage 5 is another story.
Beginning in the shadow of the Alps–in Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne–the 177.5km stage will take the riders northwest along the banks of the Rhône, with only two Category 4 climbs along the way. These climbs shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the sprinters or their teams–especially since they’ll summit the second one about 35km from the finish line in Saint-Vulbas.
Wind direction could be a factor here. The race changes direction a few times in the final hour, and if the wind is blowing hard enough–and from the right direction–some teams could try and break the race into echelons. Luckily, Cavendish knows how to handle himself in crosswinds, and assuming his Astana Qazaqstan team is able to position him at the front before any possible echelons begin to form, he could profit from such a situation.
When to Watch: The stage is expected to finish around 11:25 a.m. EDT, but we’ll be tuning in at about 10:45 in case the wind blows the race apart heading into Saint-Vulbas.
Stage 6 - Mâcon to Dijon (163.5km) - Thursday, July 4
For American fans, it’s the Fourth of July–for Cavendish, it’s just another day at the office. We’ve got a good feeling about this stage as it comes the day after what we expect to have been another field sprint, which means Cav and his team should have things dialed in by now.
Stage 6 should be a fast one. At just 163.5km, it’s relatively short for a stage that will likely end in a field sprint. And there’s not a single categorized climb other than the Category 4 Col du Bois Clair, which the riders summit just 10km after the start in Mâcon. This climb should be the perfect place for a breakaway to escape, but the sprinters’ teams will have over 150km to get their math right and bring it back before the finish in Dijon.
The teams with General Classification contenders will likely be looking ahead to the next day’s individual time trial, which means this could be a dangerous day in terms of crashes. Everyone will want to be at the front of the bunch and out of harm’s way, which means more jostling for position on the tight, twisty roads approaching Dijon. The landscape leading into Dijon also offers little protection from the elements, so wind speed and direction could again be a factor.
This is probably the last chance for Cav to win a stage during the Tour’s first week. He won’t win the ITT and he won’t win Sunday’s gravel stage in Troyes. And while there’s a chance that Stage 8 ends with a field sprint, we think there’s a better chance that it goes to a breakaway or a more hybrid sprinter who can handle the uphill drag to the finish line in Colombey-les-Deux-Églises.
When to Watch: Stage 6 is expected to end around 11:30 a.m. EDT, so we’ll be tuning in at about 11:00 a.m. to check on their progress and–if there are crosswinds–watch the action unfold.
Stage 10 - Orléans to Saint-Amand-Montrond (187.5km) - Tuesday, July 9
The Tour’s second week begins with a stage that looks perfect for Cavendish, and–if he hasn’t broken the record yet–he better take advantage of it, because he’s running out of chances.
Coming in at 187.5km, Stage 10 begins in Orléans and heads south toward Saint-Amand-Montrond, which last hosted the Tour in 2013, a stage that just-so-happens to have been won by Cavendish. S/tage 13 of the 2013 Tour was an exciting one, not just because Cav won it, but more so because of the way he won it.
As the peloton raced toward Saint-Amand-Montrond, Cav and a few of his Omega Pharma–Quick-Step teammates took advantage of some late-race crosswinds to break the peloton into echelons. A leading group of ten riders soon emerged and worked together to stay away to the finish, where Cavendish outsprinted Slovakia’s Peter Sagan to take his second win of that year’s Tour.
The finale of this year’s stage comes pretty close to duplicating the finale from 2013, so Cavendish should remember the roads and run-in to the finish. But when the final route maps are released, we’ll be eager to see if the organizers have changed the final kilometer. In 2013, the riders were forced to tackle a 180-degree bend with about 500m to go. It wasn’t a big deal for the leading group of ten riders in 2013, but if the finish is the same this year–and a larger group hits the line together–it could be dicey.
When to Watch: This stage could be a slow one. Coming right out of the Tour’s first Rest Day, the riders won’t be in any hurry–and there’s little along the route to make things exciting. (This is the only road stage in this year’s Tour with no categorized climbs.)
So while the race is expected to finish around 11:35 a.m. EDT, we think that’s a bit optimistic. We’ll start checking-in on the peloton’s progress at about 11:00, but we won’t start watching in earnest until about 10km to go–unless crosswinds make things more interesting.
Stage 12 - Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot (204km) - Thursday, July 11
Stage 11 is a true leg-breaker, with a tough finish in the jagged hills of the Massif Central. It’s definitely not a day for Cavendish–or any sprinter for that matter. But they’ll all get another chance on Stage 12, a 204km stage that begins in Aurillac, in the heart of the Massif Central.
The stage starts out rather lumpy as the race bounces across a plateau. It then drops down and heads over three Category 4 climbs during the middle third of the stage. But the last of these comes almost 70km from the finish line in Villeneuve-sur-Lot, which is more than enough time for the sprinters’ teams to get their act together and chase down the breakaway.
When to Watch: With a good chance that Stage 13 goes to a breakaway, Stage 12 could be Cavendish's last chance to win a stage in the second week. The race is expected to finish around 11:30 a.m. EDT. By now you know the drill: check in with the race around 11:00 and then watch accordingly.
Stage 13 - Agen to Pau (165.5km) - Friday, July 12
Stage 13’s a tricky one to call, so we’re hedging our bets and including it just in case.
Beginning in Agen, the first two-thirds of the stage are pretty flat. But with about 50km to go, things get lumpy with a series of categorized and uncategorized hills as the race gets closer to the Pau, the last stop before the Tour heads into the Pyrenees over the weekend. A breakaway filled with strong rouleurs will certainly head up the road earlier in the stage, and these climbs could make it tough for the Cavendish and the other sprinters’ teams to chase down any escapees.
Then again, this is a relatively short stage and the sprinters’ teams will be well aware of the challenges that await at the end of the day. They could let a group escape early, but pin them to a small gap, keeping them in sight so that they’re easier to catch at the end. The danger in this kind of approach lies in the fact that a second–even stronger–group of riders could spend much of the day chilling in the peloton, then launch a late-race move of their own in the finale. An attack like this will be harder to control, and could doom Cav and his colleagues.
So no matter what, expect an exciting battle between the breakaway and the peloton, with the sprinters’ teams needing to find a balance between setting a pace that’s high enough to keep an early breakaway close while still leaving enough left in their tanks to either prevent or chase down any late-stage attacks over that final series of climbs–while not riding at a tempo that’s too high for their own sprinters to follow. It sounds like a tall order–and it is–but it’s stages like these that make the Tour de France one of the most exciting events of the season.
In Cavendish’s case, if he hasn’t won a stage by this point in the Tour, we won’t be super-confident that he does it on Stage 13. If he does, he might need to profit from the work done by other teams to keep the race together–and then hope he has a teammate or two to lead him out heading into the finish line in Pau.
When to Watch: Stage 13 could be one of the more exciting non-mountain stage of the Tour’s second week. The hilly part of the stage gets underway after the race passes through the town of Madiran–at about 10:25 a.m. EDT. We’ll be tuning in to watch the action unfold from here all the way through to the finish (at about 11:30). Even if it doesn’t end in a field sprint, this should be an exciting stage–so no matter what happens, you won’t be disappointed.
Stage 16 - Gruissan to Nîmes (189km) - Tuesday, July 16
This is it: Cav’s last chance to win a stage and break the record for the most stage victories in Tour de France history. In most years, Cav would at least be able to look ahead to one last sprint in Paris–on the Champs Elysees–but this year’s unconventional Tour ends with an individual time trial in Nice–due to the Summer Olympics in Paris–after several days spent in the Alps.
So if Cavendish hasn’t already broken the record, it will all come down to this 189km stage from Gruissan to Nîmes. It’s not a particularly challenging day. The only climbing comes as the stage passes through some hillier terrain north of Montpellier–otherwise Stage 16 is a mainly flat ride across southern France. The stage finishes in Nîmes, where Cav won a stage in 2008.
If the wind is blowing hard from the west, there could be a headwind in the final few kilometers. The route approached Nîmes from the south, then takes a hard left turn to the west, which could send the riders directly into a headwind. That’s bad news for any riders off the front of the peloton and good news for the sprinters’ teams trying to chase them down.
A possible head- or crosswind also means the sprinters will have to perfectly time their sprints perfectly. If they leave the slipstream of their lead-outs too soon they’ll risk fading before the finish line–too late and they won’t leave themselves enough time to hit their top speeds.
From here, the Tour heads into the Alps–before that final ITT on Stage 21. Any sprinters who haven’t won stages yet won’t have any more chances to, and several might head home if they’re not in contention for the green jersey that goes to the winner of the Tour’s Points Classification. If one of those is Cavendish, let’s hope he’s not going home empty-handed.
When to Watch: This is a long-ish stage that comes right after the Tour’s second Rest Day, so it could be a long day for viewers. The stage is expected to end around 11:45 a.m. EDT. We suggest checking-in around 11:15 to see if there are any crosswinds–and to make sure you don’t miss the final sprint (in case the stage is running ahead of schedule).
Since getting hooked on pro cycling while watching Lance Armstrong win the 1993 U.S. Pro Championship in Philadelphia, longtime Bicycling contributor Whit Yost has raced on Belgian cobbles, helped build a European pro team, and piloted that team from Malaysia to Mont Ventoux as an assistant director sportif. These days, he lives with his wife and son in Pennsylvania, spending his days serving as an assistant middle school principal and his nights playing Dungeons & Dragons.
