Historically, there has been no difference between the Cubs' success before and after the annual break for the All-Star Game.
There wasn't much of a break in 1933, year of the first game between the leagues' top players.
The Cubs defeated the Reds at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, July 5.
The All-Stars met on Thursday, at Comiskey Park.
On Friday, the Cubs beat the Giants at Wrigley.
Still, the Cubs were 39-38 before the All-Star Game, then went 47-30 after it.
...
Beginning that year, the Cubs' pre-break winning percentage in all seasons, including this one, is .485.
Their percentage post-break? Also .485.
They have played nearly 800 more games before breaks than after, 7,559 to 6,766. Before breaks, their record is 3,655-3,881-23. After breaks, it is 3,269-3,476-2.
...
PRE-BREAK GAMES
The Cubs had played only 52 games when the 1981 season was halted by a strike after the final out on June 11.
When the dispute was settled, the All-Star Game was played on Aug. 9, then the regular season resumed the next day.
In non-strike seasons, the Cubs played just 68 games before the break in 1938 and 69 in 1937, 1944, 1951 and 1995.
Their 98 games before the break this year tied 1973 for their second most. They played 99 in 1969, going 61-37-1. They played 95 in 2008 (57-38) and at least 90 in 17 more seasons.
..........
PRE-BREAK WINS
The Cubs' 69 wins in 1969 are 4 more wins than at the break in any other season.
They were 57-38 in 2008 and 55-38 in 2018.
They reached 50 wins in 4 more seasons: 1977 (54-35), 2016 (53-35), 1973 (52-46) and 2001 (51-35).
Excluding 1981, their fewest wins were 26, twice: 1957 (26-46) and 1966 (26-57).
1944 (29-40) and 1954 (29-50) are the only other times they did not reach 30 wins before the break.
The Cubs have had more than this year's 47 wins in 11 seasons, most recently 2018 (55-38). In each of those seasons, they had a winning record.
They have had fewer than 47 wins in 72 seasons, excluding 1981.
They have had exactly 47 wins in 6 previous seasons: 1987 (47-41), 1989 (47-39), 2003 (47-47), 2004 (47-40), 2015 (47-40) and 2019 (47-43).
In 1987, they were just 29-44 after the break. In the others, they had winning records, ranging from 50-25 in 2015 to 37-35 in 2019.
...
PRE-BREAK LOSSES
Last year, the Cubs were 42-47 at the break. In 2022, they were 35-57, tying for their most losses ever. They were 26-57 in 1966.
They were 32-56 in 1962, 37-55 in 2011 and have had at least 50 losses in 15 more seasons, including this year.
They had only 25 losses at the break in 1937 (44 wins), 27 in 1936 (43) and 29 in 1945 (44).
The Cubs have had fewer than this year's 51 losses in 78 seasons. They have had more losses in 13 seasons.
They have had exactly 51 losses in 3 previous seasons: 2000 and 2002 (both 35-51) and 2013 (42-51). They were 30-46, 32-44 and 24-45 after the break, respectively.
..........
POST-BREAK GAMES
In 1994, when a strike ended the season, the Cubs had played only 27 games since the All-Star Game.
In strike-shortened 1981, they played 51.
Their fewest in a non-strike season was 63, in 1971.
They will play 64 his year, as they did in 1969. They played 66 in 2008 and 65 in 1972.
Their longest "second half" was 88 games, in 1964.
They played 86 in 1938 and 85 in 1937, 1944, 1951 and 1980.
Since 2000, they have played a maximum of 77, in 2012.
..........
POST-BREAK WINS
The 1935 Cubs went 60-22 after the break.
In only 4 other seasons did they win at least 50 games following the break: 1945 (54-27), 1938 (51-33), 2015 (50-25) and 2016 (50-23).
Their fewest post-break wins in non-strikes seasons were 24, in 2013 (24-45) and 25 in 1973 (25-38) and 1974 (25-44).
They have failed to win 30 games in a total of 13 seasons, including 2012 (28-49) and 2021 (27-45).
..........
POST-BREAK LOSSES
The Cubs have lost 50 games after the break in 6 seasons: 1980 (30-55), 1956 (29-54), 1951 (32-53), 1999 (26-51), 1950 (31-51) and 1983 (33-50).
Their most in the past 40 years were 49, in 2012 (28-49).
They have lost fewer than 30 games after the break in 11 seasons, led by 1935 (60-22), 1935 (50-23), 2015 (50-25) and 2017 (49-25).
..........
WINNING PERCENTAGES
The Cubs have had a winning record going into the All-Star Game break in 37 seasons, most recently in 2019 (.522, 47-43).
They were .500 on the nose in 4 seasons and have had losing records in 49, excluding 15-37 in 1981.
After the break, they have won more games than they lost 34 times, have had as many wins as losses twice and have had more losses than wins 54 times.
Their pre-break winning percentage ranged from a high of .638 in 1937 (42-25) to a low of .313 in 1966 (26-57).
They managed only .288 in the 52 games after play resumed in 1981 (15-37).
After the break, they have had a high of .732, in 1935 (60-22) and a low of .338 in 1999 (26-51).
In 2021, they were .375 (27-45), their 9th lowest.
In 2022, they were .557 (39-31) and last year they were .562 (41-32), their 19th highest.
..........
CHANGES IN FORTUNE
In 15 seasons, the Cubs had a winning percentage above .500 at the All-Star Game break, then below .500 after the break.
Among those 15 were 3 consecutive seasons, 1977-79.
In 2 of the years when the Cubs were .500 at the break, they lost more games than they won after it.
Only 10 times have the Cubs followed up a below-.500 "first half" with an above-.500 "second half."
3 of the 10 came in the past 7 years: 2017, when they improved from 43-45 to 49-25; 2022, from 35-57 to 39-31; and 2023, from 42-47 to 41-32..
Two of the earlier 8 were in 1943 and 1944, and 3 more were in 1990, 1992 and 1993.
1991 was one of 2 years in which the Cubs had a losing record before the break, then were .500 after it.
So, for 4 straight seasons, 1990-93, the Cubs lost more games they won prior to the All-Star Game, but then did not so again after the game.
..........
BIGGEST UPSWINGS
The Cubs' 177-point improvement in 2022 was their biggest ever.
They were 176 points better in 1935, going from .556 to .732.
They were at least 100 points better in 10 more full seasons. Here are all those in which they improved by triple digits after the break:
177: 2022, from .380 to .557
176: 1935, from .556 to .732
173: 2017, from .489 to .662
127: 2015, from .540 to .667
121: 1944, from .420 to .541
113: 1968, from .464 to .577
108: 1990, from .424 to .532
105: 1966, from .313 to .418
104: 1933, from .506 to .610
103: 1982, from .404 to .507
103: 2003, from .500 to .603
100: 1954, from .367 to .467
In both 1943 and 1953, they improved by 98 points. Their 90-point upswing last year comes next, ranking 16th overall.
...........
BIGGEST DOWNTURNS
The Cubs' worst performance after the All-Star Game was in 1977, when they percentage tumbled by 237 points, from .607 before the break (54-35) to .370 after it (27-45).
Here are all 11 years in which they fell by at least 100 points:
237: 1997, from .609 to .370
144: 1999, from .482 to .338
138: 1969, from .622 to .484
137: 1979, from .558 to .421
137: 1987, from .534 to .397
134: 1973, from .531 to .397
132: 1955, from .529 to .397
114: 2021, from .489 to .375
113: 1988, from .529 to .416
106: 2001, from .593 to .487
104: 2013, from .452 to .348
They dropped by 98 points in 1947 and by 96 in 1985. No other drop was by more than 9 points.
..........
LOOKING AHEAD
If the 2024 Cubs were to match their best-ever improvement of 177 points, they would have a post-break percentage of .657 and a record of 42-22, finishing the season at 89-73.
If they were to match their worst-ever decline of 237 points, they would have a post-break percentage of (gulp) .243 and a record of 16-48, finishing 63-99.
And if they were to match their average post-break percentage of .485, they would go 31-33 and wind up 78-84.
Loading comments...